Less than two weeks ago the New York Yankees suffered a significant blow when Juan Soto traded the Bronx for Queens, and signed a record $765 million contract with the New York Mets. Soto is one of the game's best hitters and essentially irreplaceable on the field. Losing a top free agent to a team in their own city surely bruised the Yankees' ego a bit too.
After losing Soto, it would have been easy for the Yankees to fall into the trap of overreacting and handing a series of regrettable long-term contracts. They've done that in the past. After Robinson Canó signed with the Seattle Mariners in Deccember 2013, the Yankees pivoted to Carlos Beltrán, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Brian McCann. They signed those three, then lost more games in 2014 than in 2013.
GM Brian Cashman said the plan was "no retreat, no surrender" after losing Soto and, in about a week's time, the Yankees have upgraded their rotation with Max Fried, upgraded their bullpen with Devin Williams, and upgraded their lineup with Cody Bellinger. Bellinger came over Tuesday in a salary dump trade with the Chicago Cubs, a move that felt inevitable once Soto left.
Without Soto, the best the Yankees could do was improve as many roster spots as possible, raise the team's floor, and take some swings on upside. Bellinger will, at minimum, give the Yankees needed athleticism, defense, and contact skills. Also, his pull heavy approach as a left-handed hitter has a chance to really pop in Yankee Stadium with the short right field porch.
The Yankees paid handsomely for Fried -- eight years and $218 million, the richest contract ever for a southpaw -- because quality pitching is not cheap. Every half-decent starter gets too many years and too many dollars, at least according to contract projections. At some point it stops being too many years and too many dollars and is just the cost of doing business.
Fried received that contract because he's been one of the best pitchers in baseball throughout his career, first and foremost. Since his MLB debut in 2017, he owns a 3.07 ERA in close to 900 innings, or a 140 ERA+. That means he's been 40% better than the average pitcher once adjusted for ballpark, the league's offensive environment, and other factors.
Sign a free agent though and you're paying for what he's going to do next, not what he's already done, and Fried has a profile that typically ages well as a command pitcher with a deep arsenal (seven pitchers, per Statcast, include four thrown at least 13% of the time). He is one of the game's great contact managers, meaning Fried generates weak contact on the ground at a high level.
Here are baseball's top ground ball artists and exit velocity suppressors since 2021 (min. 600 IP):
| Ground ball rate | Average exit velocity |
|---|---|
1. Framber Valdez: 62.4% | 1. Zack Wheeler: 86.0 mph |
2. Logan Webb: 59.0% | 2. Max Fried: 86.4 mph |
3. Max Fried: 54.5% | 3. Tyler Anderson: 86.5 mph |
4. Sandy Alcantara: 52.9% | 4. Corbin Burnes: 86.7 mph |
5. Marcus Stroman: 52.0% | 5. Chris Bassitt: 87.1 mph |
MLB SP average: 41.6% | MLB SP average: 89.0 mph |
Fried started and won the 2021 World Series clincher and pitched in the postseason just about every year with the Atlanta Braves. Bellinger broke in with the Los Angeles Dodgers, helped them win the 2020 World Series, then moved on the Cubs. Those are two players familiar with the expectations facing them in New York. Big market, expected to win. They've been there, done that.
The Williams trade was made possible in part by the Fried signing. Adding Fried made it easier for the Yankees to trade a starter, and they sent Nestor Cortes (and prospect Caleb Durbin) to the Milwaukee Brewers in the swap. The Yankees reportedly tried to pry Kyle Tucker loose using a spare starter before he went to the Cubs, then pivoted to Williams once Tucker didn't happen.
Clay Holmes, who joined Soto with the Mets, labored much of this past summer and led MLB with 13 blown saves. The Yankees never really had a set closer until Luke Weaver assumed the role in September and into the postseason. Williams takes over in the ninth inning, pushing Weaver into more of a fireman role, where he can get the game's biggest outs regardless of inning.
Fried is on a long-term contract because that's what it takes to sign one of the best pitchers in baseball. Williams has one year of team control remaining though, and Bellinger is on a one-year contract with a player option. They're short-term commitments that minimize downside without sacrificing upside. The Yankees didn't pivot to, say, five years for Anthony Santander after losing Soto.
If things don't work out with Bellinger and Williams, the Yankees can move on. But, if they do work, they can explore extensions, something Williams said he's open to discussing. "If it's right for both sides, that's definitely always an option," Williams said during his introductory Zoom call Tuesday. Other than Fried, the Yankees kept things short, and avoided potential long-term regret.
To be sure, the Yankees cannot be done after adding Bellinger, Fried, and Williams. They still need another middle-of-the-order bat, with first base an obvious target. A second or third baseman makes sense as well (Jazz Chisholm Jr. can play the other spot). You can always use more bullpen help too, right? The Yankees are no different, even after adding Williams.
Perhaps addressing those remaining needs will push the Yankees to hand out a long-term contract(s) they will ultimately come to regret, and change the tenor of their offseason. Right now though, the Yankees have done about as well as they could have after losing Soto. For a team that lost one of the best hitters in the world in Aaron Judge, Cashman and the Yankees are having a pretty good winter.
It's silly to say the Yankees are better without Soto, but even without him, they still might be the best team in the American League. They're at least in the conversation. The Baltimore Orioles and Boston Red Sox refuse to invest in their rosters, the Houston Astros are trending down, the AL Central rarely poses a threat, the Mariners and Toronto Blue Jays are chronic underachievers, etc.
The Yankees have one of the top rotations in the game, the bullpen is greatly improved with Williams, and Bellinger is the first of what figures to be multiple position player additions. For a team that went to the World Series a year ago, the Yankees still have a lot of room to upscale their roster. They're a good team right now with a lot of avenues to get better.
There is no replacing Soto but New York's Plan B looks pretty good. They added one of the best pitchers in baseball to an already good rotation and have steered clear of landmine long-term contracts for free agent position players in their 30s. The Yankees still have work to do, and thus plenty of chances to screw it up. So far though, they've made smart and impactful moves post-Soto.