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All times Eastern, and all odds via Caesars Sportsbook
🔥 The Hot Ticket
Blue Jays at Rangers, 8:05 p.m. | TV: MLB.TV
- Key Trend: The Rangers are 22-12 this season, including 5-3 as home dogs.
- The Pick: Rangers (+122)
I wish I had a Disrespect Button I could smash right now because this line is disrespecting the Texas Rangers! It's so disrespected that, as a show of respect, I will only refer to the Texas Rangers by the Texas Rangers' full name in this write-up.
The Texas Rangers are 42-26. That means the Texas Rangers have the fourth-best record in baseball, but the Texas Rangers are home dogs? Against the Blue Jays? Listen, I get that Kevin Gausman is starting for Toronto tonight and is a legit Cy Young candidate, but these are the Texas Rangers, man. The Texas Rangers have scored 418 runs this season. Do you know how many teams have scored more runs than the Texas Rangers this season?
None. No team has scored more runs than the Texas Rangers.
And the Texas Rangers are underdogs. At home. In the Texas Rangers stadium. I won't stand for it! Granted, while the Texas Rangers have also pitched well all season, tonight's starter Martin Perez hasn't been great. He's posted an ERA of 4.67 on the season and doesn't miss many bats, but he also avoids hard contact. Plus, even though Perez has been subpar and allowed at least four runs in four of his last seven starts, the Texas Rangers are still 9-4 in his 13 starts this season and 5-2 in those last seven starts! That's how good the Texas Rangers are!
So while it's perfectly plausible that the Blue Jays can win this game, there's no reason the Texas Rangers should be this big of a dog at home. Particularly when you realize they're 22-12 at home this season, including a record of 5-3 when they're home dogs. The Blue Jays are only 19-19 on the road.
Here's what SportsLine is saying about the game: The Projection Model and I stand united against the disrespect.
💰 More MLB picks
Rockies at Braves, 7:20 p.m. | TV: MLB.TV
The Pick: Braves Over 5.5 (-135) -- There isn't a whole lot of overthinking going on here. The Braves rank second in MLB in wOBA, fourth in run rate and first in home run rate. They've played 69 games this season and scored 5.3 runs per game. Now, that may be below this total of 5.5, but the Braves have scored at least six runs in 30 of their 69 games this season, and most of those games have not been played in the weather conditions they'll be in tonight.
It's going to be hot and humid in Atlanta. Temperatures will be in the high-80s at first pitch, and the wind will be blowing out to left field. Colorado starter Dinelson Lamet walks a ton of hitters and allows a lot of hard contact. Colorado's bullpen ranks 25th in strikeout rate and 27th in walk rate. Braves hitters will be busy tonight.
White Sox at Mariners, 10:10 p.m. | TV: Apple TV+
The Pick: Michael Kopech Over 7.5 Strikeouts (+111) -- It's a high total, but White Sox starter Michael Kopech has been on a run of late. After a sluggish start to the season, Kopech made some adjustments to his arsenal and saw his strikeout rate skyrocket. After striking out an average of 5.13 hitters in his first eight starts, Kopech has struck out 8.8 over his last five starts. He's had at least nine strikeouts in every one except for his last start against Miami. Kopech struck out six Marlins, but Miami is a team that's far more difficult to strike out than others.
The same cannot be said of the Mariners. Seattle enters the evening ranked 28th in baseball with a strikeout rate of 25.5%. Their contact rate of 74.1% ranks 28th. It's a team that swings a lot and misses just as much.
🔒 SportsLine Pick of the Day: Looking for more MLB action tonight? Our Alex Selesnick has shared all his favorite MLB props for Friday night.
