September has arrived, meaning the postseason races (and awards races) are really heating up and everything will be decided in less than four weeks. The marathon that is the regular season has become a sprint to the finish. With that in mind, here now are three MLB trends worth knowing as we enter the stretch run.
Manaea thriving with new arm slot
Coming into 2024, there were reasons to believe veteran lefty Sean Manaea was a sneaky and great under-the-radar pickup for the Mets. He added a new pitch last year and changed his offseason workouts, which boosted his velocity. Manaea has indeed been great this season, throwing 150 2/3 innings with a 3.35 ERA and 154 strikeouts. He's emerged as New York's ace.
This past weekend, Manaea held the admittedly hapless White Sox to two singles and two walks in seven shutout innings. It was the fourth time in his last six starts and the seventh time in his last 12 starts that Manaea completed seven innings.
Manaea, 32, remains a tinkerer. His latest trick: a lower arm slot. After watching Chris Sale dominate the Mets on July 25 -- nine strikeouts in 7 2/3 innings of two-run ball -- Manaea decided to lower his arm slot and mimic the Braves ace. In his first start with his new arm slot, Manaea struck out 11 Twins in seven scoreless innings. Here is his new arm slot in graph form:
"He's crept up a little bit over the last few years," Mets pitching coach Jeremy Hefner said of Manaea's arm slot (via MLB.com). "Sale's way more cross-bodied than Sean is, but it's something that he's been able to internalize. And, obviously, the results have been really good."
In addition to lowering his arm slot, Manaea has also shelved his sinker entirely and is throwing way more four-seam fastballs. His new arm slot is conducive to getting swings and misses with elevated heaters, so Manaea is leaning into it. Similar to Sale, Manaea is mowing through hitters with elevated fastballs and wipeout sliders, plus the occasional changeup.
| Old arm slot | New arm slot | MLB SP average | |
|---|---|---|---|
ERA | 3.74 | 2.42 | 4.20 |
WHIP | 1.25 | 0.78 | 1.27 |
K% | 22.6% | 31.0% | 21.8% |
BB% | 10.1% | 5.3% | 7.6% |
HR/9 | 1.02 | 0.81 | 1.22 |
Swinging strike % | 10.7% | 13.8% | 10.6% |
| Average exit velocity | 89.2 mph | 87.6 mph | 89.0 mph |
Manaea went from solidly above average with his old arm slot to ace-like with his new arm slot (and also his new four-seam fastball-heavy approach). He's missing way more bats, limiting walks, and suppressing exit velocity. That's the name of the game. Miss the bat as much as you can, and when hitters do get the bat on the ball, make sure they don't hit it hard. That's Manaea now.
Even before lowering his arm slot, Manaea was pitching well enough to opt out of the second year and $13.5 million remaining on his contract. Now it's a slam dunk. He's unlocked a new level of performance, and he's also shown the aptitude to evolve and make adjustments. Manaea has helped the Mets hang around the wild-card race and is poised for a big payday in free agency.
Adames the three-run home run king
Brewers shortstop Willy Adames is having a whale of a free-agent year. He takes a .255/.337/.474 batting line and 29 home runs into Wednesday's game, though his defense has taken a step back this year. Still, Adames turned only 29 on Monday, and shortstops who hit like him are in short supply. He ranks as our No. 7 free agent for the upcoming offseason.
Earlier this week, Adames tied a Modern Era record by hitting a home run in five straight games as a shortstop. He's also closing in on another record: the most three-run home runs in a season. On Monday afternoon, Adames slugged a three-run bomb against the Cardinals. It was his 13th -- 13th! -- three-run home run of 2024.
"Just think about it, hitters don't get many chances to do that," Brewers manager Pat Murphy said about Adames' penchant for three-run home runs (via MLB.com). Murphy's right; you don't get many opportunities to hit three-run homers, though Adames gets more than anyone. He has 103 plate appearances with two runners on base this year. Yainer Diaz is second with 90.
Still, 13 home runs in 103 plate appearances with two runners on base is an awful lot. That's a 75-homer pace per 600 plate appearances. Adames gets a lot of opportunities to hit with two runners on base and he makes the most of them. Here are the most three-run homers in a single season:
- Ken Griffey Jr., 1996: 13
- Willy Adames, 2024: 13 and counting
- Sammy Sosa, 2000: 12
- Tino Martinez, 1997: 12
- Roy Campanella, 1953: 12
Adames, who hit 12 three-run homers combined from 2021-23, has more three-run home runs this season than the Cardinals (nine), White Sox (nine), Rays (12), Pirates (12), and Mariners (12).
Is hitting three-run home runs a skill? Eh, not really. The skill is being a good hitter with power, which is what Adames is. It sells him short to focus only on all the three-run homers, which are a statistical quirk more than anything. The guy is just a really good all-around ballplayer, and he's going to be rewarded with a handsome contract this coming offseason.
Soler's bat not making up for his glove
The Braves made one of the most curious additions at the trade deadline when they brought back 2021 World Series MVP Jorge Soler in a salary dump trade with the Giants. On one hand, Atlanta is in the wild-card race and badly needed a bat to replace the injured Ronald Acuña Jr. GM Alex Anthopoulos turned to a familiar face to get his offense the help it needed.
On the other hand, Marcell Ozuna already occupies the DH spot, and the Braves took on Soler's entire contract, which pays him $13 million in both 2025 and 2026. How will Ozuna, whose $16 million club option for 2025 seems likely to be exercised, and Soler coexist next year? That's next year's problem. For this year, the Braves needed a bat, and they got one in Soler.
As expected, Atlanta has put Soler in right field and kept Ozuna at DH, and the early returns are not good. Soler has never been a good defender, and at this point in his career, he's an absolute butcher in the field. Stuff like this happens way too often:
Soler enters Wednesday with minus-7 defensive runs saved and minus-6 outs above average in only 166 defensive innings with the Braves. He rates as one of the 20 worst defensive outfielders in baseball, and everyone else in the bottom 20 has played hundreds more innings in the field. The case can be made that Soler is the game's worst defensive player, regardless of position.
"We knew there was going to be some rough spots," Braves manager Brian Snitker said about Soler's defense after a particularly rough game on Aug. 8 (via MLB.com). "I'm not expecting him to be a Gold Glove right fielder ... We're hoping the (offense) offsets (the defense)."
The thing is, the bat isn't offsetting the defense. Soler takes a 2 for 39 slump into Wednesday's game and is hitting .177/.323/.392 with five homers in 96 plate appearances with the Braves. Even with the power, that's about 2% worse than the average hitter, and 2% worse than average offensively doesn't offset the defense. Soler is a minus-0.5 WAR player with the Braves this year.
The Braves were smart to add a bat at the deadline and I understand going after someone you know will fit into the clubhouse, though Soler's fit on the roster was always imperfect and unusual. He's a DH, and the Braves already have a great DH in Ozuna. They took on Soler's entire contract, too. One month in, it's not working out as hoped, but there's still time for it all to come together and make sense.
