Starting Monday, baseball's annual hot stove bonanza will begin at the Gaylord National Resort & Convention Center in National Harbor, Maryland. The Winter Meetings are, by far, the four busiest and most exciting days of the offseason. We'll see rumors, trades, and free agent signings of all shapes and sizes.
So, with the Winter Meetings rapidly approaching, we've been previewing the hectic week to come division by division. In this post we're going to head out to the National League West, which is one of the more fascinating divisions in baseball. It features two no-doubt contenders, one no-doubt rebuilder, and two teams in the middle. Let's get to the team-by-team breakdown.
The Diamondbacks are under new leadership, as former GM Dave Stewart was shown the door following the club's disappointing 2016 season. New GM Mike Hazen, who worked under Theo Epstein, Ben Cherington, and Dave Dombrowski with the Red Sox over the last 10 years, is now at the helm. He's already made one significant trade too, the five-player Jean Segura-Taijuan Walker deal.
Despite their 69-93 record this past season, Arizona does have some talent and could justify going all-in on 2016. You could do a heck of a lot worse than building your lineup around A.J. Pollock and Paul Goldschmidt, after all. Plus they still owe Zack Greinke a boatload of money. The Segura-Walker trade doesn't really clarify Hazen's position -- trading for a young starter like Walker qualifies as both a win now and win later move.
If Hazen & Co. decide to go for it, they'll need bullpen help first and foremost. Breaking the bank for, say, Aroldis Chapman or Kenley Jansen almost certainly won't happen, so they'll pick from the second tier options. The D'Backs were fifth in the NL in runs scored even with Pollock and David Peralta combining for only 229 plate appearances, so the focus will be on the run prevention side.
Should the D-Backs decide to sell, moving Greinke figures to be their top priority. Finding a taker for Yasmany Tomas wouldn't be a bad idea either. Of course, Goldschmidt and Pollock are their top trade chips. Both would bring a massive haul of prospects. Others like Peralta and Jake Lamb would draw interest too. Arizona has talent. More than their 2016 record would leave you to believe.
Chances are the D-Backs will neither tear it down completely nor go all-in and spend big. At the Winter Meetings they'll monitor the market for Greinke, keep an eye out for bullpen help, and field offers for their bevy of young starters, all of whom are talented and flawed. Arizona could either be one of the most interesting teams at the Winter Meetings, or make relatively few headlines.
The Rockies are a team on the rise. I firmly believe that. Their offense is always good -- they were second in baseball with 5.22 runs per game in 2016, and they'll have full seasons of Trevor Story, David Dahl, and Tom Murphy in 2017 -- and now they actually have some young pitching (Jon Gray, Jeff Hoffman, Tyler Anderson, German Marquez). New manager Bud Black is the perfect guy to help groom those arms too.
Colorado is going into the Winter Meetings with two glaring needs: first base and the bullpen. They're not going to hand out any massive contracts to fill those needs -- if the Rockies do make any major financial commitments this winter, I imagine extensions for Nolan Arenado and Charlie Blackmon are atop their list -- so don't expect an Edwin Encarnacion signing or a Chapman/Jansen deal.
The first base market offers some quality short-term help, such as Chris Carter and Mitch Moreland, and the offense boost provided by Coors Field is a nice selling point. I think there's a pretty good chance the Rockies leave the Winter Meetings with a new first baseman. The bullpen is a long-term project. The best course of action for Colorado is to get as many arms as possible and sort 'em out during the season.
Keep an eye on Carlos Gonzalez next week. He's entering the final year of his contract and the Rockies would probably love to go into next season with Dahl and Raimel Tapia flanking Blackmon in the outfield, so I expect them to gauge trade interest in CarGo. The problem: the outfield market is kinda of saturated at the moment. Jay Bruce, Curtis Granderson, and Brett Gardner are all available and more affordable.
Once again, the Dodgers are poised to be one of the most active teams during their Winter Meetings. Among the items on their shopping list are a second baseman, a third baseman, a starting pitcher, and a closer. Re-signing Justin Turner, Rich Hill, and Jansen would solve three of those problems, and the Dodgers have reportedly expressed interest in bringing all three back.
Although they are working to satisfy MLB's debt limit and reduce payroll, the Dodgers insist they are not under orders to clamp down on spending. They're still said to be reluctant to trade top prospects, which could make a trade for a second baseman Ian Kinsler or Brian Dozier tough. Ditto a deal for Chris Sale or Justin Verlander. Andrew Friedman's M.O. is keeping his top prospects and finding creative solutions.
It is not in Friedman's DNA to remain quiet at the Winter Meetings, so expect Los Angeles to do something of substance next week. Most likely multiple moves. I think they'll leave National Harbor with a new infielder and a closer, the latter of which comes via a significant free agent signing. The need is obvious and there are too many good free agent closers available for the Dodgers to remain quiet.
Moreso than any other large market team, the Dodgers tend to make large trade -- I'm talking six, seven, eight player trades -- that come out of left field. They're hard to predict. Well, aside from the fact they tend to be very active at the Winter Meetings. It's a given nowadays.
GM A.J. Preller is back from his suspension and ready to continue the team's rebuild. Veteran catcher Derek Norris was traded to the Nationals on Friday, leaving the team with few tradeable veterans. There's Wil Myers and Yangervis Solarte. Those two are pretty much all that's left at this point.
Aside from Myers and Solarte, Preller would be wise to market his top relievers, specifically Brad Hand and Ryan Buchter, in trades given what teams have surrendered for high-end bullpen help over the last year or so. There's no reason for the Padres to hold back. They should listen to offers for anyone and everyone on the roster at the Winter Meetings, and I believe they will.
San Diego won't be "buyers" at the Winter Meetings but they will still look to add pieces. Rotation and bullpen help is a must. Those innings aren't going to throw themselves, you know? Expect Preller to shop in the bargain bin. Think Jhoulys Chacin, Tommy Milone, Vance Worley ... those types. Cheap, durable, and a chance to pitch their way into some trade value come deadline time.
I'll be shocked if the Giants leave the Winter Meetings without a new closer. It's a glaring need -- they could use bullpen help even beyond a closer -- and they're reportedly in contact with all the big free agents, which includes Mark Melancon in addition to Chapman and Jansen. It makes too much sense not to happen.
Beyond the bullpen, the outfield is potentially a position of need as well. I say potentially because the Giants could go with a Jarrett Parker/Mac Williamson platoon in left field. That's an option. Denard Span is not a safe bet to stay healthy all year though, and Hunter Pence could use the occasional day off as well. A center field capable reserve outfielder feels like a necessity now that Gregor Blanco is a free agent.
The Giants have reportedly kicked the tires on a Pablo Sandoval reunion, though I think that was just a "maybe the Red Sox will eat a bunch of money and take little in return to get rid of him" thing, and not serious interest. A new third baseman isn't a pressing need with Eduardo Nunez still around. Bullpen, outfield, and maybe some rotation depth. That's the Winter Meetings shopping list for San Francisco.
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