The odds are stacked against Bob Melvin's A's. Again. (Getty Images) |
That the Oakland A's are in position to make the playoffs despite ranking 29th in opening-day payroll is unlikely enough. But what if they actually make the postseason? That would be the most unlikely thing of all, especially because of recent events and the formidable road ahead.
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First, there's the state of the Oakland rotation. The harrowing injury to Brandon McCarthy means that the A's almost certainly will have four rookies in the rotation -- Tommy Milone, Jarrod Parker, A.J. Griffin and Dan Straily -- to go along with 24-year-old "veteran" Brett Anderson. While there's nothing that says a team must be awash in veteran starters in order to make the postseason, known quantities are useful this time of year. There's also the fact that Milone, Griffin and Straily have limited upsides. Those three will need to continue overcoming the opposition and the scouting reports.
The season-ending injury to McCarthy, the possibly career-ending injury to Dallas Braden and the suspension of Bartolo Colon also mean there's almost no depth. The A's exceptional team defense and run-suppressing home park will help paper over some of these flaws, but the rotation is a concern right now.
Another worry is the downward trend of the A's two core hitters, Josh Reddick and Yoenis Cespedes. Reddick's second-half OPS has dropped 178 points from first-half levels, which raises concerns that his somewhat out-of-character start to the season was in large part random noise rather than the establishment of new performance standards. As for Cespedes, he's struggled since the calendar flipped to August, which leads one to wonder whether the sprawl of the MLB season is beginning to wear down the rookie defector. Needless to say, the A's need the heart of their order to return to earlier form. On another level, can Chris Carter possibly sustain his current pace?
The other, possibly even greater concern? The brutal schedule ahead.
Among contenders, no team's remaining schedule can compare to the might of Oakland's. Over the balance of the regular season, the A's will play the Rangers seven times; the revitalized Mariners six times (the M's are playing .608 ball in the second half); the Angels four times; and the Orioles, Yankees and Tigers three times each. That comes to an average opponents' winning percentage of .548. In all of baseball, only Seattle has a higher mark. The other troubling element of the schedule is that the A's will play just nine of their remaining 26 games at home.
Stated another way, all of this is the rough equivalent of playing the Tampa Bay Rays (.547 winning percentage at this writing) in every game from this point forward and playing them on the road about two-thirds of the time. That would be a crushing stretch drive for any team, let alone one whose rotation has been diminished.
On the other hand, the 2012 A's are nothing if not accustomed to defying the odds. Can they keep doing it? It seems doubtful, but if they do, then their successes will be hard-won in the extreme.
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