The San Diego Padres in recent years have made a habit of being close.
They were close to being a great team in 2020. They were close to the World Series in 2022, making the NLCS for the first time since 1998. They were close to running down the Dodgers late in the 2024 season for the NL West title. They were close to eliminating the Dodgers, again, taking a 2-1 lead in the best-of-five NLDS.
It's gotta be a bit tiring to continue to come close and not ultimately get the job done. The 93 wins in the regular season were the most for the franchise since that 1998 pennant-winning team, meaning it was a successful season -- especially coming off the heels of 82 wins in 2023 -- but the close-but-no-cigar stuff has come to embody the Padres.
Can they continue to move forward with success only this time around topple a titan and reach the World Series? How about winning the first World Series for the franchise?
That's the task at hand for A.J. Preller's front office. They've done well and gotten close. It's time to stop messing around and hang a banner.
Key free agents
- LF Jurickson Profar
- SS Ha-Seong Kim
- RP Tanner Scott
- SP Martín Pérez
- UT Donovan Solano
- C Kyle Higashioka
- C Elias Díaz
- OF David Peralta
- SS Nick Ahmed
Scott is very likely to sign somewhere to be a closer, so he's gone. The other big needle-mover here would be Profar and surely the Padres do everything they can to bring him back. He'll be 32 next season and is coming off a career year. He's never had a huge contract, so now is the time. The Padres might lose him, but, again, they'll do all they can here.
Biggest needs
If they can't retain Profar, the Padres need to replace his production with a corner outfielder.
With Joe Musgrove set to miss all of 2025 after undergoing Tommy John surgery, the rotation could use help behind Dylan Cease, Michael King and Yu Darvish. They have some options in Matt Waldron and Randy Vasquéz but that's certainly not enough to get you through an entire season.
Shortstop may be a consideration, but the Padres could always just keep Xander Bogaerts there, as he shifted there from second base once Kim got hurt.
Finally, with both Higashioka and Díaz hitting free agency, they need a backup catcher at bare minimum and an upgrade over Luis Campusano as the now-starter wouldn't hurt.
Possible fits
Before we proceed, it should be noted that there are very likely payroll constraints. The spending was tamped down once owner Peter Seidler passed away and reports indicated the Padres wanted to stay below the luxury tax threshold last season. It's one of the reasons they traded Juan Soto. As things currently stand, the Padres look like they'll have a payroll a touch under $200 million (after arbitration raises), but their figure for the luxury tax is higher. Cots Contracts actually estimates that the Padres right now are already over the $241 million luxury tax.
There are two schools of thought here. One, if the Padres are truly already over the luxury tax, just go with the "who cares?" approach like they have a few times in the past and go all out without regard to the payroll. The other path would be trading higher-salaried players to get under the tax.
It's hard to predict what direction Preller takes. We just know they'd like a starting pitcher, catcher and either Profar to return or a corner outfield bat.
They could always bring back Profar and Kim and essentially run it back, though they'd still need to address the rotation and catcher.
Roki Sasaki - He's coming and it won't require breaking the proverbial bank to sign him.
Yusei Kikuchi - The lefty doesn't have a qualifying offer attached and is coming off an outstanding 10-start stint with the Astros.
Nathan Eovaldi - He heads to his age-35 season with extensive injury history and lots of upside.
Jack Flaherty - For the first time since 2019, Flaherty just put together a full and very good season. He'll be looking for a long-term deal, so he might not work.
Walker Buehler - On the other hand, Buehler is coming off a terrible regular season and could be had on a one-year, incentive-laden deal.
Luis Severino - He rebuilt his value with a decent season for the Mets. He works as a mid-rotation starter, should be the price be right.
Shane Bieber - He's now a free agent, though his April 2024 Tommy John surgery raises some red flags, or at least question marks. Given that he'll likely start the season on the injured list, a short-term deal to rebuild his value would make a lot of sense. Maybe the Padres can land him.
Garrett Crochet - The lefty is under team control through 2026 and won't be overly expensive this coming season. He would, however, cost a pretty penny in prospects via trade.
Sonny Gray - The Cardinals appear to be undergoing a quick rebuild and they'd love to get out of some of the money due Gray. He's due $25 million in 2025 and $35 million in 2026. The Cardinals will have to eat some of that in order to move him, but how much? And would that be enough for the Padres to jump in?
Jordan Montgomery - The D-backs seem pretty desperate to part with Montgomery after his disastrous 2024 season, meaning they might be willing to eat a large portion of the $22.5 million owed to him for 2025. If that's the case, he's a nice buy-low guy and could work out very well for San Diego.
Brent Rooker - If the Padres need to replace Profar, a trade for Rooker could work. He's under team control through 2027 and hit 39 homers with 112 RBI last season.
Anthony Santander - If they elect to hit free agency to replace Profar, perhaps Santander fits. He hit 44 homers with a .506 slugging percentage last season. A whopping 32 of his home runs came as a lefty and an escape from "Walltimore" at home could help rack up those bombs from the right side.
Bo Bichette - If the Blue Jays decide to make Bichette available, the Padres could try and swing something for him. It would put Bichette at shortstop and Bogaerts at second, moves that also put Jake Cronenworth at first base and possibly allow them to try Luis Arraez in left field (he played there 27 times in 2021). It's a bit outside the box, but that's how Preller operates at times.
Catchers - They could bring back Higashioka or grab a free agent on the cheap, such as Travis d'Arnaud, James McCann, Jacob Stallings or Yasmani Grandal. It's slim pickings out there.