A promising season is slipping away from the Pittsburgh Pirates. On Tuesday night at loanDepot Park, the Pirates lost for the sixth time in seven games and the 14th time in 19 games (MIA 2, PIT 0). At 58-63, Pittsburgh is in the NL Central cellar and six games behind the third wild-card spot with six teams ahead of them. FanGraphs puts their postseason odds at a season-low 4.6%.
"It's tough. Everybody is going through it," manager Don Kelly said after Tuesday's game (via MLB.com). "We need to keep grinding and find a way. It's frustrating for everybody. When you're going out there and battling for something, there is different pressure. We need to find a way to be able to learn how to play with that, because that's the expectation."
Paul Skenes, the reigning NL Cy Young winner, started Tuesday's game and was again merely ordinary rather than sensational. He held the Miami Marlins to two runs (one earned) in five innings and struck out four. Curiously, Kelly removed Skenes after only five innings and 65 pitches. Both Kelly and Skenes insisted he's healthy, insisting that the move was strategic.
"Anybody this time of year is not injured, but guys in August aren't 100%," Kelly said (via MLB.com). "It wasn't injury-related that he came out. Just thought it gave us the best chance to win there."
Skenes added (via MLB.com): "(Kelly) walked me through everything and it all made sense. I wish I could have gone more, but you know, it kind of is what it is. You see guys yell at the manager when they're coming out for a mound visit, and I've never done that. There probably will be a point in my career when I do do that, but I'm always straight with him. He's always straight with me."
The Pirates are 3-13 in Skenes' last 16 starts, during which he posted a 5.00 ERA and averaged 5.3 innings. The under-the-hood numbers are much better than that ERA (3.29 FIP and 3.82 expected ERA), but they're not on par with his previous two seasons. The eye test says Skenes just isn't right. His stuff and command aren't nearly as sharp as in the past.
Also, Skenes' velocity was down again on Tuesday. It has been trending down for several weeks now. His heater averaged a career-low 95.9 mph Tuesday and he topped out at 96.6 mph. He threw at least four 97.0 mph pitches in his previous 79 career starts.
Earlier this season, Skenes and the Pirates claimed the velocity dip was related to holding back in an effort to better locate, which could be taken as a sign of maturity (pitching, not throwing, etc.). The longer he pitches to a 5.00 ERA and looks like this, though, the harder it is to buy that explanation. At some point, it makes sense to go back to cutting it loose, you know?
Whenever velocity dips, it's easy to think injury, and yes, that is often an explanation. I have a very hard time believing the Pirates would let Skenes pitch through an injury, though. If he is hurt, it's more likely Skenes is keeping it to himself and pitching through it because that's how these guys are wired. They play through everything because that's what ballplayers are supposed to do.
"The league is adjusting back. Paul's gonna have to fight to make the adjustment back to the league," Kelly said (via MLB.com). "Yes, the velo is down. I think command has been a bigger thing, at least for me. That could come from multiple things. Trying too hard to be too perfect. Well, you can't just go and try to get it. So how does Paul make the adjustment back?"
Removing Skenes after five innings and only 65 pitches on Tuesday suggests some level of careful handling. Either it was a strategic decision and Kelly is no longer treating Skenes like a bona fide ace, or they're nursing him through something. That something could be a mechanical issue, not necessarily an injury. Regardless, pulling Skenes at 65 pitches would've been unthinkable not long ago.
Since July 1, Pittsburgh's starters have a 5.40 ERA and are averaging 4.7 innings per start. Skenes certainly hasn't pitched up to his lofty standards, but it's not just him. Bubba Chandler, Jared Jones, Mitch Keller ... the entire rotation has let the Pirates down. Add in a shaky defense (putting it nicely) and an offense that has been more miss than hit lately, and you get 14 losses in 19 games.
Given their current wild-card deficit, there is no chance -- zero -- the Pirates can reach the postseason with Skenes being anything less than an ace. They need the rest of their rotation to pull its weight too, but Skenes Day has to be Win Day, and it hasn't been the last few weeks. With 42 games remaining, Skenes and the Pirates already have their backs up against the wall.
"We just have to keep playing our game," Skenes said on Tuesday (via MLB.com). "I don't know why we're probably not playing up to that standard right now. I don't think you can really point at any one person. I think there are probably a few of us in the clubhouse who can say that we could pitch a little better, hit a little better, play a little better defense or whatever it is. It being August doesn't help. We just have to enjoy it, find the joy in the game and have fun. If we do that, we'll get back to who we are."
