Barely a week has passed since the Chiba Lotte Marines of Japan's Nippon Professional Baseball league announced they would post right-hander Roki Sasaki this winter for the consideration of Major League Baseball teams. While much about Sasaki's free agent remains up in the air -- the Marines haven't yet provided a firm timetable on when his signing window will open -- it seems fair to declare Sasaki as the one free agent every MLB team will have interest in this winter.
That's not intended as being disrespectful toward Juan Soto, Corbin Burnes, or any number of talented players who deserve the massive paydays coming their way. It's simply a statement borne from the unique circumstances surrounding Sasaki.
Just what are those, and how could they result in all 30 teams chasing after Sasaki this offseason? Let's break it down, one handy dandy subheading at a time.
1. Youth and upside
Sasaki is perhaps best known for being a flamethrower capable of sitting in the upper-90s with a swing-and-miss splitter, he dealt with both injuries (a recurring theme in recent years) and slightly reduced velocity in 2024. Among those maladies? Shoulder fatigue and a torn oblique. It's to be seen if and by how much Sasaki's velocity recovers, but he'll still possess good heat even if he's sitting closer to 96 than 99 mph.
Rōki Sasaki, 92mph Splitter and 102mph Fastball, Individual Pitches + Overlay pic.twitter.com/pSu8cvaW9n
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) November 5, 2024
Stylistically, there are only so many MLB starters who rely as heavily on a fastball-splitter combination as Sasaki does. (To be fair, he also has an above-average slider that accounts for a little over 25% of his usage.) In fact, here are a complete list of qualified MLB starters who threw at least 70% four-seamers and splitters in 2024:
Part of the appeal of Sasaki's game isn't just that he has high-end stuff; he also throws a ton of strikes. For his career in Japan, he's averaged two walks per nine innings. He's been successful at avoiding loud contact, too, surrendering all of 16 home runs in more than 414 frames (that's a home run every 25.88 innings).
Did we mention that Sasaki is super young? He turned 23 years old on Nov. 3. That makes him the junior of all three American League Rookie of the Year Award finalists (Austin Wells, Luis Gil, Colton Cowser). It also makes him just over a year older than Travis Bazzana, the second baseman the Cleveland Guardians drafted No. 1 overall in July. Sasaki may be rookie-aged, but don't confuse that for being unaccomplished.
2. Impressive track record
Sasaki originally planted his flag as a global sensation back in 2022, when he struck out 19 batters as part of a perfect game. He was 20 years old. Don't mistake Sasaki for a one-hit wonder; he's been excellent whenever he's been able to take the mound.
Below, we've compiled a few key NPB statistics for Sasaki and five other notable pitchers who have made the transition to MLB: Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Shohei Ohtani, Kodai Senga, Imanaga, and Yu Darvish. It would be within reason to describe this as comparing Sasaki to the who's who of active NPB-to-MLB pitchers at the point that they made the switch. Take a look:
| Pitcher | ERA | SO% | BB% | SO-BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Sasaki | 2.02 | 32.4% | 5.6% | 26.8% |
Yamamoto | 1.82 | 26.4% | 5.9% | 20.5% |
Ohtani | 2.52 | 28.5% | 9.1% | 19.4% |
Senga | 2.59 | 28.2% | 9.3% | 18.9% |
Imanaga | 3.18 | 25% | 6.9% | 18.1% |
Darvish | 1.99 | 25.1% | 6.7% | 14.8% |
As you can see, Sasaki fares well in ERA -- hanging in there with Darvish and Yamamoto, who won three consecutive MVP and Cy Young-equivalent Awards to wrap up his NPB career -- and he absolutely blows away the competition in both strikeout and strikeout-minus-walk percentages.
Rōki Sasaki, 99mph Fastball and 91mph Splitter, Overlay. pic.twitter.com/kxw6dTI9TT
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 24, 2024
This isn't merely a case where Sasaki has benefitted from a more extreme offensive environment, either. According to Baseball Reference's figures, the NPB league-wide strikeout rate was 18.1% in 2011 (Darvish's final year overseas) versus 18.7% in 2024. Over that same span, MLB's K rate has swelled from 18.6% to 22.6%.
You can make a quantified case, then, that Sasaki would be the most dominant former NPB pitcher in MLB during what amounts to a golden era for Japanese pitchers.
3. Capped cost
The exact timing of Sasaki's posting and signing is worth monitoring since it will have a direct impact on his earning potential. Because of his age and lack of service time, he'll be classified by MLB as an amateur free agent. That means he'll be subjected to the international bonus pool caps, the way that Ohtani was when he first came over.
The current international amateur signing period ends on Dec. 15, with the new cycle beginning on Jan. 15. It makes all the sense in the world for Sasaki and the Marines to wait until after the new year to sign, since that would mean that more teams have funds to throw his way. (As it stands, only the Los Angeles Dodgers and Baltimore Orioles could offer him more than $2 million with what's left in their respective pools.) Whenever Sasaki signs and whomever he signs with, we can confidently state that he'll be drastically underpaid.
255 Seconds of Rōki Sasaki's Stuff from the WBC.
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) December 22, 2023
"The Next Big Thing." #RokiTheRocket pic.twitter.com/Mu0ye8iGf3
Before we get to the nitty gritty on Sasaki's earning potential, let's revisit the names from the table above and reprint their original MLB contract terms. (Note that we've excluded Ohtani, who was also classified as an amateur and had to settle for a $2.3 million signing bonus and a league-minimum salary from the Los Angeles Angels.)
Yamamoto: 12 years, $325 million ($27 million AAV)
Senga: 5 years, $75 million ($15 million AAV)
Imanaga: 4 years, $53 million ($13.25 million AAV)
Darvish: 6 years, $56 million ($9.33 million AAV)
How much could Sasaki possibly sign for? Baseball America reported in April that eight teams would have $7.55 million in bonus pools for the 2025 cycle. Teams are allowed to trade for up to 60% of their pools, meaning that those eight clubs could obtain and offer around $12 million to Sasaki if they went all-out in their pursuit.
That ignores that teams have pre-existing agreements with other prospects, and that clubs might not be quick to trade their cap space since they too have deals lined up. For the sake of the hypothetical, though, let's say Sasaki's max offer is around $12 million.
To be clear, that isn't $12 million annually. It's $12 million total. Sasaki would otherwise have to play for the league minimum until he reaches arbitration. He would, essentially, be in close to the same boat as Pittsburgh Pirates ace Paul Skenes, who signed for $9.72 million after being chosen No. 1 overall in the 2023 draft. The difference between the two? The Pirates are allowed to sign Skenes to an extension that pays him closer to his market value whenever. With Sasaki, MLB will presumably issue the same warning to teams that they reportedly did when Ohtani came stateside: a quick extension will be viewed as circumvention and will be punished accordingly.
A hearty and hale Sasaki, then, could not only be one of the game's best pitchers -- he could be one of the most underpaid players in professional sports for the first chunk of his career. That combination alone explains why he's perhaps the only free agent that every team will show interest in this offseason.
