Today's best MLB pitcher strikeout props: Back Mets starter against Twins

Pittsburgh Pirates ace Paul Skenes will try to bounce back from the worst start of his career when he takes the mound against the Washington Nationals on Monday at PNC Park in Pittsburgh. In his last start, the 22-year-old reigning National League Rookie of the Year gave up a career-high five runs in a 5-3 loss to the St. Louis Cardinals. On Monday, Skenes (1-1, 3.40 ERA) and the Pirates will take on Brad Lord (0-0, 1.80) and the Nationals.

The game is one of 10 on Monday's MLB slate. Elsewhere in the majors, reigning American League Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal (1-2, 3.78) and the Tigers face Tyler Alexander (1-0, 2.84) and the Brewers; Framber Valdez (1-1, 2.50) and the Astros square off against Sonny Gray (2-0, 4.50) and the Cardinals; and Dylan Cease (1-1, 7.98) and the Padres host Jameson Taillon (1-1, 6.06) and the Cubs.

For the Pirates-Cubs matchup, sportsbooks have set Skenes' total strikeout player prop at 6.5. But it does not rate highly according to the SportsLine Projection Model. According to the model, which simulates every MLB game 10,000 times, Skenes Over 6.5 strikeouts rates as a 3 on the five-star scale.

Instead, there are two pitcher strikeout props for Monday that the model has rated at 5 and another rated at 4.5 that returns plus money. Here they are:

Brad Lord Over 3.5 strikeouts (+138) vs. Pirates (6:40 p.m. ET)

Rating: 5 stars
Model projection: 4.9 strikeouts

Lord's first MLB start went swimmingly. On Tuesday against the mighty Dodgers, the 25-year-old right-hander allowed two hits and two walks while striking out four in 3.0 scoreless innings. Most impressively, he struck out Shohei Ohtani swinging twice. On Monday, Lord has a juicy matchup against a free-swinging Pittsburgh club that has struck out 151 times this season, the fourth-most in the majors.

Landen Roupp Over 4.5 strikeouts (+100) vs. Phillies (6:45 p.m. ET)

Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 5.4 strikeouts

Roupp has shown improved swing-and-miss stuff so far this season. After averaging 8.4 strikeouts per nine innings last season, he is averaging 10.8 this season. He also is coming off a quality start against the Reds, giving up only one run and seven hits in 6.0 innings. On Monday, he is set to face a Philadelphia lineup that has struck out 19 times over its last two games and has been shut out twice in the last three games.

Clay Holmes Over 4.5 strikeouts (-154) vs. Twins (7:40 p.m. ET)

Rating: 5 stars
Model projection: 6.4 strikeouts

Holmes' transition from Yankees closer to Mets starter hasn't affected his stuff. He is averaging a career-high 12.3 strikeouts per nine innings through three starts this season. Last Tuesday, he struck out a career-high 10 batters in 5.1 innings, including five in a row during one dominant stretch. His strikeout percentage of 29.0 also is a career-high mark and ranks among the best in the majors.