The 2024 World Series begins Friday with a marquee matchup: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York Yankees. This is the first time the teams with the best record in each league will meet in the World Series since 2020 (Dodgers vs. Rays), and for the first time in a 162-game season since 2013 (Cardinals vs. Red Sox). This is also the 12th time the Dodgers and Yankees have met in the World Series. It's the most common postseason matchup in baseball history.
"I'm looking forward to it," Yankees manager Aaron Boone said about facing the Dodgers earlier this week. "The stars will be out, the eyeballs will be watching, and hopefully we can deliver on a great series."
We were due for a big-ticket World Series one of these years and we've got it. The Dodgers and Yankees are the sport's two most marketable teams, and they employ some of the game's greatest and most exciting players. A thrilling World Series, this promises to be. With that in mind, here are 10 storylines to keep an eye on during this compelling World Series matchup.
1. Judge and Ohtani, Ohtani and Judge
Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani are the two biggest stars in the sport (Judge literally at 6-foot-7), and one will leave this series with his first World Series ring. After wasting away with the Angels for six years, Ohtani is in the MLB postseason for the first time, and he's making the most of it: .286/.434/.500 with three home runs. This is Judge's seventh trip to the postseason and his first pennant. Three times the Yankees lost in the ALCS in the Judge era (2017, 2019, 2022) before getting over the hump this year.
Judge and Ohtani are the game's two biggest stars and their performance will help decide the series. Judge has not had a good postseason -- he's hitting .161/.317/.387 with two home runs -- and the Yankees were able to survive that in the ALDS against the Royals and the ALCS against the Guardians. It's hard to believe they can beat the Dodgers in the World Series without Judge making an impact. The two biggest stars in the game will try to outdo each other when the lights are the brightest.
2. Soto's final free agent showcase
Two years ago, Judge had the greatest free-agent year ever when he hit .311/.426/.686 with an AL-record 62 home runs. Juan Soto might've just had the second-greatest free-agent year ever. He slashed .288/.419/.569 with a career-high 41 homers and a career-high 7.9 WAR. And, in his first (only?) postseason as a Yankee, Soto punched their ticket to the World Series with an ALCS-clinching three-run homer in Game 5 against Cleveland:
Soto could have gone 0-for-October, and he would still have been paid handsomely this offseason. He turns 26 on Friday, the same day as Game 1 of the World Series, and his early-career performance stacks up with all-time greats. Soto has only continued to deliver in October though, slashing .333/.439/.667 with three homers. A bad World Series won't hurt Soto's wallet, but a great one will only help him, especially if the Yankees win the title and owner Hal Steinbrenner decides Soto must stay in pinstripes.
3. Mookie, Giancarlo, and the other stars
Judge and Ohtani alone have plenty of star power. Then there's Soto. Oh, and Mookie Betts and Giancarlo Stanton. That's four former MVPs plus Soto, who was the MVP runner-up in 2021. Betts has hummed along with a .295/.404/.659 batting line and four homers this postseason. Stanton is slashing .294/.385/.794 with five home runs, including four during his ALCS MVP effort against Cleveland. For these guys to be considered a "secondary" star on their own team is rather absurd, but such is life in Judge's and Ohtani's orbit.
In all likelihood, one group of stars will outperform the others, and that's who takes home the trophy. That's baseball, right? Some players have a great 4-7 games, others don't, and that determines the World Series winner. Soto and Stanton teamed up to carry the Yankees through the ALDS and ALCS while Judge slumped. Betts and Ohtani have been rocks for the Dodgers.
4. Freeman's ankle
Freddie Freeman has not been himself this postseason. The Dodgers first baseman rolled his ankle running the bases on Sept. 26 and it has affected him at the plate, at first base, and on the bases in October. Freeman's hitting .219/.242/.219 in the postseason and he's diminished in the field as well. That he did not start NLDS Game 4 (an elimination game) or NLCS Game 6 (a potential pennant-clincher) tells you Freeman is in real agony. Sitting out those games must've eaten at him.
The NLCS ended Sunday and the World Series begins Friday, giving Freeman a nice long break to let his ankle heal up. He said the trainers told him it is a 4-6 week injury and this is Week 4, though Freeman has been playing on the ankle, which surely slowed the healing process. The Dodgers were able to get to the World Series without their former MVP contributing much. To beat the Yankees, though, they'll need Freeman to help in some way. Will the ankle allow him to do more than punch singles?
5. The bottom of the lineup
You have to figure the stars -- Betts, Judge, Ohtani, Soto, etc. -- will get theirs. They're going to hit home runs, they're going to get big hits, they're going to make things happen. The best way to limit their impact is to make sure those guys bat with the bases empty as often as possible. Ohtani's splits this postseason are insane: 4 for 29 (.138) with the bases empty and 8 for 13 (.615) with runners on. The fewer baserunners for Ohtani, the better. Same with Betts, Judge, Soto, et al.
That makes the bottom of the lineup extremely important in the World Series. Here's what each team's 7-8-9 hitters have done this postseason:
| Dodgers | Yankees | |
|---|---|---|
Batting average | .262 | .256 |
On-base percentage | .301 | .376 |
Slugging percentage | .415 | .344 |
By the standards of 7-8-9 hitters, both teams have gotten very nice work from the bottom of their lineups during the playoffs, with the Dodgers more so in power and the Yankees in on-base ability. Anthony Volpe, in particular, has had a terrific postseason for the Yankees, hitting .310/.459/.345 with eight walks and six strikeouts. You're living well when a bottom-of-the-order guy goes that.
Keeping the 7-8-9 hitters off base ahead of the superstars at the top of the lineup is imperative in the World Series. Those aren't your average 1-2-3 hitters. They are some of the best hitters in the world and that can put a hurting on you in a hurry if they come to the plate with ducks on the pond. Keeping the bottom of the order down is a sneaky important storyline in this year's Fall Classic.
6. The running game
The Yankees have two stolen-base threats in Volpe and Jazz Chisholm Jr. Volpe stole 28 bases during the regular season. Jazz stole 40 between the Yankees and Marlins. For the Dodgers, it's Ohtani, the 59-steal man, and also Betts (16) and Teoscar Hernández (12). Both World Series teams can steal a base when they have the right guys on base.
Here's how Will Smith and Austin Wells, the two starting catchers, fared at shutting down the running game during the regular season:
| Smith | Wells | |
|---|---|---|
Caught-stealing rate | 33% | 26% |
Statcast throwing runs | plus-10 runs | 0 runs |
The league average was a 22% caught-stealing rate this year and Smith was the best catcher in baseball at preventing stolen bases. Wells was a tick better than league average. Ohtani has yet to steal a base this postseason (he was thrown out in his only attempt), though I suspect he'll test Wells if the opportunity presents itself. Chisholm and Volpe vs. Smith will be a fun subplot.
Even with the new rules that promote stolen bases, teams are a little hesitant to run in the playoffs, especially when you have lineups like the Dodgers and Yankees. They don't want to risk losing a baserunner. That said, there are times you simply need to push the envelope and try for the extra 90 feet. On paper, the Dodgers are better able to prevent it than the Yankees.
7. New York's rotation advantage
Gerrit Cole is the best starting pitcher in the World Series. I'm not sure anyone will argue that. Carlos Rodón might be No. 2. He had a 2.91 ERA after the All-Star break and was quite good in his two ALCS starts against the Guardians. Clarke Schmidt had a nice year around a lat injury and Luis Gil is going to get Rookie of the Year votes after throwing 151 ⅔ innings with a 3.50 ERA.
The Dodgers, meanwhile, have seven starting pitchers on the injured list (Tyler Glasnow, Tony Gonsolin, Clayton Kershaw, Dustin May, River Ryan, Emmet Sheehan, Gavin Stone), and are piecing things together with Walker Buehler, Jack Flaherty, and Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Three times this postseason they've used a bullpen game, including with their season on the lane in Game 4 of the NLDS against the Padres. That is suboptimal. The Dodgers got to the World Series, but it is suboptimal.
The Yankees have the rotation advantage going into the World Series and they need things to play out that way. They need Cole to be the best pitcher in the series and Rodón, Schmidt, and Gil to outperform Buehler, Flaherty, and Yamamoto. New York's starters have a 3.89 ERA this postseason. Dodgers' starters? 6.08. Starting pitching isn't everything, but it is a lot, and the best chance for the Yankees to win the World Series involves their starter being the best guy on the mound each night.
8. Rodón vs. LA's lefties
The Dodgers were the best-hitting team in baseball against left-handers during the regular season. They slashed .269/.337/.458 against southpaws, top three in the league across the board, and they will get at least one crack against Rodón in the World Series. He is likely to start Game 2 and, if necessary, Game 6. This is the lineup the Dodgers used against Mets ace Sean Manaea, a lefty like Rodón, in Game 6 of the NLCS:
- DH Shohei Ohtani, LHB
- RF Mookie Betts, RHB
- LF Teoscar Hernández, RHB
- SS Tommy Edman, SHB
- 1B Max Muncy, LHB
- 3B Enrique Hernández, RHB
- CF Andy Pages, RHB
- C Will Smith, RHB
- 2B Chris Taylor, RHB
If the Dodgers are going to sit Freeman at any point in the World Series as he nurses his sprained ankle, Rodón starts are a good time to do it. It gets Freeman away from the hard-throwing, high-strikeout lefty, and it allows Los Angeles to get another righty bat in the lineup. With or without Freeman, the Dodgers hit southpaws very well, and need to do so against Rodón.
This applies to the bullpen too. Ground ball specialist Tim Hill is New York's go-to bullpen lefty -- I imagine he'll see plenty of Ohtani in the World Series -- plus they have Tim Mayza and Nestor Cortes, who could be added to the roster after missing the ALDS and ALCS with a flexor strain. The Dodgers are very good against lefties and the Yankees sure do have a lot of lefties.
9. The war of bullpen attrition
So far this postseason, relievers (347 ⅓) have thrown more innings than starters (323). That is true for the Dodgers, who've gotten only 40 innings from their starters compared to 57 from their relievers. Yankees starters have soaked up 44 innings this postseason -- they've thrown four more innings than Dodgers' starters despite playing two fewer games -- while their relievers have only ("only") been asked to get 38 ⅔ innings. New York played an extra-innings game too.
By the middle of the ALCS, Yankees' relievers were running on fumes, so much so that closer Luke Weaver and setup men Clay Holmes and Tommy Kahnle were unavailable at various points against the Guardians. The Dodgers were much more deliberate with their bullpen usage. They didn't use their highest-leverage relievers (Michael Kopech, Evan Phillips, Blake Treinen) to keep deficits small, and made sure to spread the workload around rather than work one or two guys hard.
This late in the year, everyone's tank is on E. Some guys have a little more left in reserve though, and in the Championship Series, Dodgers' relievers sure looked livelier than New York's, even with the sizeable difference in postseason workload. The Yankees have the rotation advantage on paper and they need Cole & Co. to pitch reasonably deep in games so they lean on Holmes, Kahnle, and Weaver, and less on the soft underbelly of the bullpen. The Dodgers have a depth advantage with their relief crew.
10. Boone and Roberts
These two managers certainly know something about iconic postseason moments. In 2003, Yankees manager Aaron Boone punched New York's ticket to the World Series with his walk-off home run against the late Tim Wakefield in Game 7 of the ALCS. One year later, current Dodgers manager Dave Roberts sparked the Red Sox's historic comeback from down 3-0 in the ALCS against the Yankees with his stolen base in the ninth inning of Game 4. The two managers have lived this time of year as players.
Boone and Roberts have also lived similar lives as managers. Every year, fans and sports radio types call for their jobs, say they're puppets for the front office, so on and so forth. This is Boone's first trip to the World Series, so this part is new to him, but he knows all about having his managerial acumen questioned. Bottom line, the players love Boone and Roberts, and sure, they both make questionable in-game decisions from time to time. What manager doesn't? Ultimately, the players play, but expect Boone and/or Roberts to dominate the conversation at some point during the World Series. It is the way of the baseball world.
