Different NBA front offices have different processes when it comes to the NBA Draft, but this is the time of year when more and more of them are starting to develop some type of order on their draft board. This mock draft is intended to be a reflection of that, and accordingly, will undoubtedly have significant movement in the five months before draft night.
In fact, right now, I would contend there are maybe only four or five prospects who can confidently say they have a good chance of hearing their name called on draft night. After that group, there is a whole lot left to be determined in the coming months.
In there lies a theme of this draft, while the very top is still perceived as strong, the overall depth of the group may not be what we hoped, and some claimed, just a few months ago. Of course, even that could change in time with the onset of conference play providing a good platform for prospects to continue to make a case for their draft stock.
The other thing that is unclear is the order of the draft. Obviously, that will be shaped by the lottery in May, but even beyond that, there are so many picks that are in flux depending on where they fall, that even the teams making the picks are far from certain at this point.
Mock Draft
Round 1
Round 1 - Pick 1
Flagg continues to get better with each passing month for Duke and seems to have gained some separation from the field in the last few weeks because of it. Flagg's versatility and the totality of his overall impact have been off the charts, and if the shooting and self-creation keep trending in the right direction, he could end up being the runaway favorite for the No. 1 pick.
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Round 1 - Pick 2
He was playing at an incredibly high level at the end of the calendar year but has recently been hampered by illness. The key with Harper is the shooting. If he's making 3-pointers, it unlocks so much else because of his size, strength, length and natural instincts with the ball in his hands — and he was 15 for 32 from behind the arc in December.
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Round 1 - Pick 3
There's an increasingly wide range of opinions on Bailey, which is somewhat ironic considering he fits the athletic jumbo wing archetype that is in such high demand and also has some real shot-making to match. The concerns, which are the same as they were in high school, are based on his shot selection, decision-making, lack of rim pressure for such an athlete, and overall inconsistency.
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Round 1 - Pick 4
It took him a few weeks to adapt to college basketball, but he's been playing at a very high level since the end of November. Jakucionis has backcourt size, skill, craft, a knack for operating out of ball screens, and on- and off-ball versatility. His high turnover rate is a bit of a concern, while scouts are still evaluating how well his defensive footspeed will translate.
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Round 1 - Pick 5
This is where it gets very uncertain. Edgecombe hasn't played like the top-five prospect advertised just yet, but his athleticism, competitiveness and defensive upside are undeniable. He's 9 for 21 from behind the arc in his last five games. If he can keep that pace and eliminate some of those offensive no-show nights (four points vs. Gonzaga, two vs. New Orleans, four vs. Iowa State), he could appeal to someone like Danny Ainge.
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Round 1 - Pick 6
 
Kon Knueppel
SF
Duke
• Fr
• 6'7"
/ 217 lbs
Knueppel is skilled, he can score, and there are times when he's been Duke's primary facilitator and initiator. He's also exceeded expectations defensively, albeit surrounded by college basketball's best defense. The shooting is going to keep ticking up, and if he measures anywhere near his listed height, that's just one more box he'll check.
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Round 1 - Pick 7
The biggest hiccup in Portland's rebuilding plans is that Scoot Henderson hasn't been anywhere near as good as expected through the first season-and-a-half. Picking Demin, who looks like the best passer in the draft but has inconsistent shooting and individual offense, gives them a contingency plan while simultaneously allowing them a look at playing the two lead guards together.
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Round 1 - Pick 8
 
Asa Newell
PF
Georgia
• Fr
• 6'11"
/ 220 lbs
This is, admittedly, a little higher for Newell than I'm comfortable with, but he fits an archetype that OKC could value as a southpaw big who can, potentially, stretch the floor with his shooting and as a lob threat and simultaneously bring some defensive versatility.
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Round 1 - Pick 9
This too may be higher than most have McNeeley at this point, but he's again proven to be more than just a shooter this year, as he can make decisions and facilitate some within the flow of offense. He's out now with an ankle injury but needs to prove he's a solid enough defender that he won't be targeted at the next level.
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Round 1 - Pick 10
 
Tre Johnson
SF
Texas
• Fr
• 6'6"
/ 190 lbs
Every pick San Antonio makes should be about what's best around Wemby, and Johnson has some shot-making and scoring punch that could help lighten the load for the sophomore sensation. If the Spurs think they can get him to buy into being a more willing ball-mover, cutter and defender, this pick could make a lot of sense.
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Round 1 - Pick 11
 
Ben Saraf
SG
Israel
• 6'5"
/ 200 lbs
Saraf may end up being the best international player (as in non-college basketball player) in this draft, which was not the expectation just a few months ago. The southpaw has the requisite feel to play in Golden State's system but needs to figure out the shooting.
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From
Atlanta Hawks
Round 1 - Pick 12
If the Spurs look to solidify the point guard spot, Fland gives them the shooting necessary to space the floor around Wemby. He's added an extra dimension of burst to his game this year and proven he's capable of creating for others. Building up his body will be a requisite to withstanding the physicality of the next level.
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From
Phoenix Suns
Round 1 - Pick 13
The Rockets have arguably more young pieces than any franchise in the league, with essentially all five positions covered. While Maluach is admittedly still a project, particularly on the offensive end, he'd provide a complement to Alperen Sengun as a backup with size and length who can rim run, block shots, and move reasonably well laterally.
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From
Sacramento Kings
Round 1 - Pick 14
 
Nolan Traore
PG
France
• 6'4"
/ 175 lbs
Traore came into this draft cycle billed as a top-five pick but has not had a good season thus far in France. He's still a high-upside swing with solid size, very good speed, and real playmaking instincts for a lead guard. Defense, shooting and ball security are the swing skills that could impact his stock in the coming months.
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From
Detroit Pistons
Round 1 - Pick 15
 
Noa Essengue
PF
France
• 6'10"
/ 200 lbs
Essengue is one of the youngest players in the draft. He's viewed as a highly versatile defender who needs to define his translatable offense, but still has a way of impacting the game without needing significant offensive volume. If Julius Randle isn't in Minnesota past this year, the Wolves could use another frontcourt piece.
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Round 1 - Pick 16
All Queen has ever done is produce. It started when he was a freshman at Saint Frances Academy in Baltimore, continued with Team Thrill in the Under Armour Association, and now at Montverde Academy. There will be questions about how his game will translate, especially defensively, but his hands, touch, rebounding and passing are all assets.
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From
Los Angeles Clippers
Round 1 - Pick 17
Fears is the most pleasant surprise in this freshman class so far. The question is whether he can sustain it. He's a big, playmaking lead guard who needs a ton of volume and isn't always especially efficient but has playmaking tools. It would be a big swing for an OKC team that is very comfortable betting on its player development.
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From
Milwaukee Bucks
Round 1 - Pick 18
Jones may be the best guard in college basketball this year and is uniquely qualified to come into a Brooklyn program that could have significant minutes available in the backcourt and crack the rotation as a rookie.
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From
Miami Heat
Round 1 - Pick 19
A late-blooming big wing with a 7-foot wingspan and 39% shooting from behind the arc for his career, Coward began his college career at the Division III level and only played six games this season before a shoulder injury.
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Round 1 - Pick 20
Jackson has averaged over 23 points per game through his last six games. He's always been hyper-competitive and made great strides with his shooting in high school. Now it's just the feel and shot selection that scouts want to see.
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From
Los Angeles Lakers
Round 1 - Pick 21
Karaban is a smart and skilled forward who can provide some much-needed floor spacing for an Atlanta franchise that is gradually picking up some quality young assets.
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Round 1 - Pick 22
There will be questions about how his game fits with his lack of floor spacing, but Murray-Boyles is a long, strong and rugged forward, or maybe even small-ball five, who could thrive in a more supporting role.
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Round 1 - Pick 23
As the Mavs continue to build around Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving, Fleming gives them a long athlete who is averaging 1.5 blocks per game this season but is still accurate from 3-point range.
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From
Denver Nuggets
Round 1 - Pick 24
If Orlando doesn't think Jett Howard is the long-term 3-and-D wing they hoped for, Powell could offer them a prospect from that archetype, albeit one who won't be ready to make an impact just yet.
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Round 1 - Pick 25
Philon has exceeded all expectations this year with his two-way instincts and competitiveness to match his lead guard size. He could be an understudy for Marcus Smart in Memphis but needs to shoot it consistently.
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From
New York Knicks
Round 1 - Pick 26
 
Hugo Gonzalez
SF
Spain
• 6'6"
/ 205 lbs
Gonzalez is a high-IQ wing with an equally high motor, yet he's very difficult to evaluate this year because he doesn't get a ton of minutes. Brooklyn has enough picks to make the risk worth the reward.
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From
Houston Rockets
Round 1 - Pick 27
Dink Pate
SG
G League Ignite
• 6'8"
/ 210 lbs
Another home-run swing for Brooklyn with this potential jumbo guard in the making. It will be a bet on player development, though, as he'll have to develop his shooting and total floor game.
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Round 1 - Pick 28
Al Horford can't play forever. Broome is the best big man in college basketball and may have just enough shooting potential to make it work in Boston.
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Round 1 - Pick 29
He's strong, athletic, potentially versatile defensively, and competes with a high motor. If the shooting ever becomes reliable, he would be a very nice role player, which is what the Clippers would love to find here.
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From
Cleveland Cavaliers
Round 1 - Pick 30
 
Noah Penda
SF
France
• 6'8"
/ 225 lbs
An ascending Frenchman, Penda is strong, skilled and very smart. It's very possible he continues to trend up in the coming months and isn't available by this point.
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