We are one day away from the NBA Draft, and we can say very little with certainty. In all likelihood, there will be no trade activity in the top four. Though we don't know who lands where, the Washington Wizards, Utah Jazz, Memphis Grizzlies and Chicago Bulls should each walk away with one of AJ Dybantsa, Darryn Peterson, Cameron Boozer and Caleb Wilson. After that, things get complicated.
The 2026 lottery is regarded as unusually deep and mostly saturated with a single position group: guards. Those two factors together make for a pretty trade-friendly environment after the top four, with possible movement up, down and possibly even for veteran players. Of course, all of this comes with the big disclaimer that the Giannis Antetokounmpo we're all waiting for could (and likely will) throw everything into chaos.
Until then, let's look at the top and middle of the first round. Where are we likeliest to see trading? The following five spots come to mind:
Los Angeles Clippers (No. 5)
The Clippers check basically every box for a sensible trade-down. First of all, they're operating at a significant asset deficit. While the final pick from the Shai Gilgeous-Alexander trade conveys this year (No. 12 overall), the Clippers still owe three years' worth of draft control from the James Harden trade that followed it. That's on top of any possible penalties that come out of the Kawhi Leonard Aspiration investigation. Bottom line here is that turning one asset into several makes plenty of sense for them.
While there is an enormous gap between the top four prospects and the rest of the class, the gap between No. 5 and the prospects projected at the end of the lottery is minimal. Most of the top prospects in that No. 5 range are point guards, and the likeliest long-term fixture on the existing Clipper roster is Darius Garland, a small point guard. Heck, this isn't even Los Angeles' original pick. It was the result of a smart trade with Indiana for Ivica Zubac and a lucky lottery draw. It's not as though the Clippers tanked away a season to get here. There's less pain in moving down than there might be for other teams who were expecting a savior all year.
If the Clippers don't want a guard, or if someone is desperate enough to pay a sizable asset price to move up, yes, it makes all the sense in the world for the Clippers to move down. That doesn't mean that they will. They simply make the most sense of any team in the lottery to do so.
Dallas Mavericks (No. 9)
The Mavericks are dealing with a similar asset deficit to the Clippers. Nico Harrison traded control of every Dallas first-round pick between 2027 and 2030 when he was trying to build around Luka Dončić, and then he gave away Dončić without refilling the asset coffers. If they can get multiple good assets for one lottery pick, they should probably consider doing so.
Jake Fischer recently reported that the Mavericks have been one of the teams in the lottery most open-minded about moving down. That will be especially true if the prospect they have been linked to most, Arizona's Brayden Burries, is off the board before No. 9 comes up. Since the Clippers more or less know who will be on the board when they pick at No. 5, a trade could theoretically happen before the draft. The Mavericks are probably waiting. If Burries is on the board, Dallas could simply take him. If not? Get your offers in, because the Mavs should be open for business.
Oklahoma City Thunder (No. 12 and No. 17)
The Clippers and Mavericks are operating under asset deficits. The Thunder are the opposite. They are working with a massive asset surplus, but that creates a different set of problems. Right now, the Thunder have 14 of their 15 available roster spots for next season already accounted for. That is probably going to change because they are roughly $30 million over the projected second apron with their picks accounted for, even after trading Aaron Wiggins.
In theory, the draft picks could just occupy the roster spots left behind by whoever gets traded in salary dumps, but it's not as though the Thunder have many minutes to offer, either. Besides, they have two high draft picks they've barely seen yet in Nikola Topić and Thomas Sorber. If there are developmental minutes to be had here, they have priority, so drafting two rookies could create a minutes crunch Oklahoma City may not want to deal with.
That could take the Thunder in almost any direction. If they want to try to consolidate their picks for a specific high-level prospect, it's worth doing so. No. 12 and No. 17 could probably get them up to No. 9. If they want to get up to No. 5, they might also have to give the Clippers control of their 2027 first-round pick back.
Alternatively, the Thunder could try to trade one of those picks for future draft capital. Think of the move San Antonio made with Minnesota in 2024 for Rob Dillingham, sending the No. 8 pick out for a top-1 protected swap and an unprotected pick deep in the future. The Thunder are starting to run low on draft picks deep in the future, so such a move could make sense for them here.
Notably, Minnesota is working out at least one lottery-range prospect in Labaron Philon, so maybe the Timberwolves are up for a repeat transaction. If it's not them, it's worth considering for other teams. Picks in this range are rarely available for future assets, but the Thunder are a unique trading partner. One way or another, it makes sense for Oklahoma City to make a trade on Tuesday.
Memphis Grizzlies (No. 16)
The Grizzlies, like the Thunder, are an asset surplus team. They've loaded up with picks over the past year by trading Desmond Bane and Jaren Jackson Jr. They'll get a possible franchise player at No. 3 no matter who they land between Cameron Boozer, Darryn Peterson and AJ Dybantsa, but the real fun starts with their next pick, No. 16.
Those blockbusters gave the Grizzlies plenty of ammunition to move up with their second first-round pick, and they reportedly want to do so. Why shouldn't they? Moving up from this same spot last year, No. 16, got them Cedric Coward at No. 11. Coward looks like one of the best finds of last year's draft, and if we assume Boozer is the pick at No. 3, the Coward-Boozer-Zach Edey frontcourt looks to be in great shape moving forward. Jumping up from No. 16 this year would presumably be done with a guard in mind, and there are obviously plenty in this year's lottery. The $28.9 million trade exception they have left over from the Jackson trade could also allow them to take back a bad contract as part of the value of moving up.
The Grizzlies are one of the best drafting teams in the NBA. Coward at No. 11 was a home run. So was Bane at No. 30 and half a dozen other picks general manager Zach Kleiman has made over the years. If Memphis moves up, it seems like a pretty safe bet that they'll land a valuable prospect.
New Orleans Pelicans (no pick)
The Pelicans are neither notably asset-rich nor asset-poor. They don't have their first-round pick this year, but they control all of their own picks moving forward. They simply have a general manager known for falling in love with specific prospects. It was Derik Queen last year, and that's what cost New Orleans their pick in this year's loaded class.
There's been quite a bit of reporting this draft cycle that Troy Weaver once again has a target in the lottery range. We don't know who that target is, but given Weaver's ties to the Washington D.C. area, Virginia native Nate Ament seems like the appropriate guess.
The Pelicans could go about finding that pick in a number of ways. If they're willing to trade unprotected picks as they did a year ago, well, they'd probably find an interesting suitor. It would likely take more than one to get into the top 10, but perhaps putting those picks far enough into the future could do the trick. Remember, we don't know what the lottery rules will look like beyond 2029, which makes picks deep in the future potentially enormously valuable.
The other path would be to dangle highly coveted wing Trey Murphy, and reports have suggested that he's more available now than he ever has been. Murphy, a big wing with an elite shot and a team-friendly contract, would seemingly interest teams across the league. He'd be a perfect fit for Atlanta at No. 8, for instance, if the Pelicans want their original pick back. Basically any team in that range of the draft could justify such a trade. He's a 26-year-old forward who can shoot. He fits anywhere.
