Give LeBron James this: the man is not afraid of taking risks. Had he signed with the Cleveland Cavaliers or Miami Heat, he could have ended his career in familiar territory with fans who already know and love him. Had he signed with the Golden State Warriors, the whole basketball world would have understood they had no real championship equity and that he was mostly checking a bucket-list item.
Instead, he chose the Philadelphia 76ers. If those fans can throw snowballs at Santa, they can certainly derail LeBron's storybook ending. We've been saying "yeah, but if Joel Embiid just stays healthy..." for a full decade now. Everyone on this team needs the ball. The Sixers have ducked the luxury tax four trade deadlines in a row. Nick Nurse opens the season on one of the NBA's warmer seats. The general manager who hired him, Daryl Morey, was fired in May.
There are so, so, so many ways this can go wrong. But James still made the decision because of the one singular way this could go right. The 76ers, for all of their questions, have one of the most mind-bogglingly talented starting lineups in the history of the NBA. They have an All-NBA point guard in Tyrese Maxey. They have an All-NBA small forward in Jaylen Brown. They have an MVP center in Joel Embiid. They have a No. 3 overall pick at shooting guard in VJ Edgecombe, who exceeded expectations as a rookie. Now, they round out their opening unit with perhaps the greatest player in NBA history.
The day-to-day journey is going to be bumpy. There are going to be injuries and fit questions and all of the unnecessary drama that perpetually engulfs the 76ers franchise. But when we get to April, no team in the Eastern Conference is going to want to look across the floor and see that much talent on the other side.
So how do we make sense of it all? What does this team actually look like on the floor? What other moves can and will be made here? Let's attempt to sort through one of the bigger NBA surprises in recent memory.
So... how does LeBron fit on the 76ers?
James immediately checks two pretty significant boxes for Philadelphia. The first is simply by being a starting-level human being that is power forward-sized. Dean Wade likely would have started at power forward had James not signed on, but as his primary duty is to defend opposing ball-handlers, he would have functioned very differently on this team. Now Wade presumably goes to the bench, and the Sixers have to figure out how to juggle usage among two stars in their prime, two MVPs past theirs and a top-three pick still trying to make his mark in the league.
James is going to have to serve as the connector between them. The 76ers needed one. Only the Boston Celtics and Los Angeles Clippers assisted on a lower percentage of their made field goals last season, and Boston's primary ball-handler last season is now obviously in Philadelphia. This team had barely any passing. Now it has more of it, but it also has a usage dilemma to solve.
The sheer volume of ball-handling here is frankly astounding. The 76ers now have five of the 37 players who touched the ball most on a per-game basis last season. Cumulatively, they touched the ball 373.7 times per game last season. The 76ers as a team averaged 425.1. Jaylen Brown essentially got the opposite of his own team. Edgecombe is going into his second season and still trying to make his way. We haven't even mentioned Anfernee Simons. There will have to be sacrifices here.
James showed he could do that last season playing with Luka Dončić and Austin Reaves. All of his pertinent usage numbers -- touches, dribbles, length of time holding the ball, shots off of drives -- went down notably when the Los Angeles Lakers torched the NBA in their 15-2 March. James modulates his usage carefully now. He doesn't run a million pick-and-rolls or isolations every night anymore. He finds his points in subtler ways. Even at 41, he just led the NBA in fast-break points per game. He cuts, spots up and posts up more than he did at his peak.
Figuring out which spaces he'll occupy on the floor will be a challenge. The high post is Embiid's domain, and he and Brown will already have to figure out how to share the mid-range. LeBron James is not simply going to hang out in the dunker's spot and watch teammates dribble, and for his career, only 12% of his 3s have come from the corner. He's made 38% of those 3s, though, so he could scale up from there.
James will bring the ball up a fair bit. Inverted pick-and-rolls with Maxey, maybe the NBA's fastest player, will be lethal. James will probably pair with just about everyone on the team for pretty devastating two-man actions. It's an underrated skill of his, considering how much he's had the ball over the years, but James is one of the best short-roll playmakers in NBA history. Expect Philadelphia to use him as a screener quite a bit. Everyone can shoot. Maxey and Edgecombe are A+ athletes. There are still specifics to sort out, but there's little question that the 76ers will be able to score.
Defense is the greater concern. Make peace with the handful of baskets the Sixers are going to give away in transition every night. Philadelphia allowed the fifth-most points per game off of fast breaks in the NBA last season. They're adding a soon-to-be 42-year-old who's been known to waste a possession or two per night grumbling at the officials while the play continues without him.
Embiid can't really move anymore. James can, but asking a 42-year-old to do so for 82 games is unrealistic. Brown guards the ball well, but isn't exactly known for his off-ball work. Maxey is a small, high-usage offensive guard and therefore pretty vulnerable defensively.
Edgecombe is the swing piece on that end of the floor. The Sixers need him to tilt more of his game toward defense. He has the athletic tools to bother just about anyone on the perimeter. It's still a big bet on a second-year player. Wade will be vital off of the bench, and the 76ers have the offensive firepower to abide his offensive shortcomings. The same goes for Adem Bona. Nick Nurse is as creative as defensive coaches get, and as flawed as this group is, almost everyone at least brings something to the table. Embiid can still be a stationary rim-protector. James is still a genius. The offense can talent its way into a top-five ranking. The defense is where the bulk of Nurse's work will be done.
And for that matter, it's probably where Mike Gansey still has work to do. Rich Paul hinted that James may not be joining a finished roster earlier this week. "My advice has been don't just value the paper," Paul explained on his Game Over podcast. "Because the paper in July is different than when you get into training camp, when you get into January." So what comes next for Philadelphia?
Are there any more moves to be made here?
There's at least one procedural move coming. The Sixers only have around $3.4 million in first0apron space. Minimum contracts typically only count for the two-year veteran's figure -- around $2.4 million -- but because James signed for two years, his cap figure will be the full, $3.9 million amount. Someone is moving to fit him onto the books. The obvious candidate would be Dalen Terry, whose contract does not guarantee until January.
But that is, again, just a procedural move. If there's a bigger trade coming here, it would involve Embiid. That's the path to easing the usage crunch here and stabilizing the defense with someone a bit more reliable. But moving Embiid would be prohibitively expensive. Nobody wants his contract. Three years of supermax money for a player who has suited up just 96 times in the past three seasons is an albatross. Getting off of his deal, at a minimum, would cost Philadelphia's unprotected 2033 first-round pick. It might take some swaps on top of that.
Is there a trade out there worth such a price? If an Anthony Davis trade was coming, we probably would have heard about it by now. While I'd frankly fear a Davis extension just as much as Embiid's current deal, the Wizards seem intent on keeping him. The weak picks they gave up for Davis are worth far less than Philadelphia's unprotected 2033 choice, but taking on Embiid is an enormous negative in itself. It's hard to imagine the Wizards doing so without the sort of draft compensation Philadelphia isn't equipped to offer.
The likelier paths would involve taking on multiple smaller yet still problematic contracts from other teams while sending out that 2033 first-round pick. Many such deals would have to come during the season. Here are a handful of options:
- The rebuilding Milwaukee Bucks might see some appeal in trying to rehabilitate Embiid's value in the wake of losing Giannis Antetokounmpo. They have Myles Turner on an iffy long-term deal, and while he's no longer the defender he was at his Indiana peak, his shooting would be very valuable on a team with this much dribbling. Kyle Kuzma is a contract the Bucks would probably love to dump, and nothing would say "we didn't circumvent the cap on the Gary Trent Jr. contract" like another team willingly taking it in a trade (and Trent is notably represented, like James, by Klutch Sports). Embiid and Anfernee Simons for those three works cap-wise, though it would have to come during the season.
- Swapping Embiid for Domantas Sabonis (and some salary filler) wouldn't exactly help Philadelphia's defense or usage issues, but it would at least give them a slightly more reliable big man from a health perspective. Making the money work in a way that allows the Sacramento Kings to duck the luxury tax would be potentially tricky, but is doable in-season.
- The Bulls should be in pure, asset-accumulation mode during Caleb Wilson's rookie deal. If they could get that 2033 first-round pick, something involving Nic Claxton, Patrick Williams and Jalen Smith would probably be worthwhile. The Sixers probably don't want to switch defensively as much as a Claxton team should, and Williams is among the NBA's worst contracts in his own right, but it's a way to turn one unreliable player into a number of mid-sized salaries.
None of these deals are all that exciting. That's how scary Embiid's contract currently is. He's a firmly negative trade asset now. If the 76ers are concerned with maximizing upside, their best bet is probably keeping Embiid, managing his minutes as carefully as possible and just crossing their fingers and hoping he's available in the spring. If they trade Embiid, it will be for healthy bodies who need the ball less. This is a question for January. For now, the Sixers will almost certainly see how the team looks before making any big decisions.
More likely, they shop around for another big at the deadline using what meager matching salary they have on their bench. Simons is frankly superfluous at this point. They don't need another bench scorer. If they can combine his $6 million salary with another player in search of a $10 million or so big man, they probably should. It's too early to say who that player might be, but their 2033 pick is valuable enough to potentially entice teams with bigs on rookie deals. One way or another, the Sixers have to find a more reliable backup center before the playoffs. Bona and Ariel Hukporti aren't going to cut it in May. Don't be surprised if James plays some backup center depending on the matchups.
As Paul said, we won't really know what Philly's roster will look like until the deadline. That said, we can stack them up against the rest of the Eastern Conference field as they currently stand.
So, where do the Sixers fall in the Eastern Conference hierarchy?
The defending NBA champion New York Knicks still open the season as the Eastern Conference favorite. Philadelphia really only has them beat in terms of the individual résumés of their players.
There are no coherence questions in New York. The Knicks found themselves in the playoffs. All five starters will be between 29 and 31, the ideal range for a contender. Health largely hasn't been a concern for the Knicks over the last two postseasons. That can obviously change quickly, but you'd certainly feel better about their durability on paper than Philadelphia's.
The matchup is a bit trickier for New York than it has been in the past. Having Mitchell Robinson to throw at Embiid mattered, and Jalen Brunson doesn't exactly have a defensive hiding spot here. But the 76ers have no solution for Brunson either. They can try to hide Embiid on Josh Hart, but he's burned them from deep in both of their last two playoff series. There isn't going to be an adjustment period for the Knicks. Game 7 of this hypothetical series would probably be at Madison Square Garden.
That's the tricky part of projecting the 76ers. Even with their shot-creation surplus, they're probably better suited to the playoffs than the regular season, and even if they have the second-best postseason roster in the conference, the path is a lot harder if you're starting multiple series on the road. There's not a lot of room for error in the Eastern Conference anymore.
The last time the Indiana Pacers were healthy, they were playing in Game 7 of the NBA Finals. They know who they are. The Toronto Raptors should figure that out relatively quickly. Kawhi Leonard is as portable as any star in the NBA and is joining one of the NBA's most versatile groups of defenders. The Celtics are a regular-season wins machine. For all the playoff equity they sacrificed in trading Brown for Paul George and picks, they are still going to take better shots, pull in more rebounds and give away fewer turnovers than anyone in the NBA. The Miami Heat just traded for Giannis Antetokounmpo. The Cleveland Cavaliers reached the Eastern Conference Finals. These teams aren't going away.
Teams adding James have traditionally started fairly slowly. The Heat famously went 9-8 in their first 17 games of the 2010-11 season, and Cleveland was 19-20 to start the 2014-15 campaign. They've been able to dig themselves out of those holes because of how thin the Eastern Conference has been. That's not the case anymore. There are going to be some very overqualified Play-In teams this season.
It would probably take some negative health outcomes beyond Embiid to push the Sixers down that far. But the Knicks, the Celtics and the 60-win Detroit Pistons certainly have higher floors. While Boston and Detroit aren't suited to the postseason in their present states, the Pacers and Raptors certainly are, and projecting who will actually advance is impossible because in a conference this crowded, the two best teams might wind up playing each other in the first round.
On paper, the Knicks sit in their own playoff tier. On pure talent, the Sixers have to be right below them, in a group with the Pacers and Raptors. Boston and Detroit are a trade away from getting into that group. The Heat probably need multiple transaction cycles to build a Giannis-friendly supporting cast, though Erik Spoelstra's creativity and their unparalleled ability to develop depth internally might hasten that process. Poor Cleveland lost its only on-ball defenders chasing James and now has no obvious path to replacing them. Remember when the Orlando Magic went all in for Desmond Bane last summer? Not looking great right now.
There's a championship ceiling here, but there's a floor lower than most Sixers fans want to admit. Some version of that sentence has been true in Philadelphia four or five times over the past decade. This is the most talented roster they've had in that window, but it's an "if everything goes right" sort of roster. If Embiid stays healthy, if they nail a bench move or two, if they can figure out what lineups have synergy, if everything clicks, this team can hang with anyone. That's the bet James made in choosing Philadelphia. It's a high-risk, high-reward swing on one of the most talented on-paper rosters an NBA team has assembled in quite some time.
