The San Antonio Spurs and Oklahoma City meet on Tuesday evening in Game 5 of the Western Conference Finals with the series tied at 2-2. San Antonio won the first game in double overtime in Oklahoma City, but the Thunder responded by winning the next two games to take a 2-1 series lead. The Spurs dominated in Game 4, and this is now a best-of-3 set for the right to play the Knicks in the 2026 NBA Finals.
San Antonio has no injuries officially, though De'Aaron Fox and Dylan Harper have both been sidelined at times in this series. Ajay Mitchell is out for the Thunder while Jalen Williams is officially listed as questionable, but he hasn't played in the last two games after exiting Game 2 due to a hamstring injury.
We've taken a look at the SportsLine Projection Model to highlight the best bets for Spurs vs. Thunder Game 5 on Tuesday, May 26. The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in betting profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past eight-plus seasons. The model entered the second week of the conference finals of the 2026 NBA playoffs on a sizzling 26-10 roll (72%) on top-rated NBA spread picks this season. Anyone following its NBA betting advice at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen huge returns.
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NBA Playoffs picks, best bets for Tuesday, May 26
- Spurs +4.5
- Under 217.5
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under 8.5 assists
- Keldon Johnson Over 6.5 points
Spurs +4.5
San Antonio has managed to keep things close for the most part even in its losses, and it now has the healthier roster in the series. The Spurs are 14-7 ATS as underdogs this season and 11-6 ATS as road underdogs. The Thunder were one of the best home teams in the league during the regular season at 34-7 straight up, but is just 23-24 ATS at Paycom Center. The Spurs cover the spread in 49% of simulations.
Under 217.5
The Under hits in 59.3% of SportsLine's simulations but it took these teams some time to settle in defensively. Only Game 4 went Under this particular line, partially due to Oklahoma City's struggles from the perimeter. Returning home could help role players like Alex Caruso and Jared McCain get right, but losing Mitchell and potentially missing Williams again will hamper the Thunder offensively.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under 8.5 assists
The two-time league MVP logged seven assists in Game 4, his lowest total for the series. SGA racked up 33 assists over the first three games as the Thunder supporting cast hit shots regularly. Those shots weren't falling in Game 4, and the rotation has been thrown off a bit with a few key injuries. Even though Gilgeous-Alexander has been a distributor in this series, he may need to focus more on scoring to give the Thunder a chance in Game 5. He's projected for 6.1 assists in SportsLine's props model.
Keldon Johnson Over 6.5 points
The SportsLine props model has Johnson projected for 9.1 points in Game 5. He saw less run in Games 3 and 4, though the latter might have been due to the contest being a blowout. Johnson has not shot the ball well in this series so even a small jump in efficiency should push him past this line, which he has cleared in two of the four previous games but one Under was at six points.
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