The Heat did what the Heat have often done. They got their superstar. Now the hard work begins for Pat Riley.
On Monday night, after days (weeks? months? years?) of waiting, the Milwaukee Bucks finally agreed to trade Giannis Antetokounmpo, shipping him and Bobby Portis to Miami for Tyler Herro, Kel'el Ware, Jaime Jaquez Jr, Kasparas Jakucionis, three first-round picks (including the 13th overall in Tuesday night's draft), a 2030 pick swap and a 2033 second-round pick. It was a bold move for the Heat, which is nothing new for the organization under Riley. They've taken big swings at big names time and again. Alonzo Mourning. Shaquille O'Neal. LeBron James. Jimmy Butler. Riley landed them all. Now he can add Giannis to the list. The big question is what comes next -- and how much longer will Riley be the one calling the shots?
Partnering Giannis with Bam Adebayo gives the Heat a formidable frontline defense. Antetokounmpo is a former Defensive Player of the Year, while Adebayo could have been and has made All-Defense five times. That's a good place to start. The trouble begins with the rest of the roster. To acquire Giannis, the Heat shipped out their second-leading scorer in Herro, a Sixth Man of the Year finalist in Jaquez, and a promising young big in Ware. (We'll put Jakucionas and his as-yet unknown potential to the side for now, though that's a nice added roll of the developmental dice for the Bucks.) That's a big chunk of the rotation for Erik Spoelstra to lose. And that might not be the end of it.
For a team that's suddenly pretty thin, the Heat can hardly afford to part with any more load-bearing contributors, but they're in danger of doing exactly that. Norm Powell is coming off an All-Star bid and is an unrestricted free agent. Andrew Wiggins is a key two-way wing with a player option at $30 million. Both are in line to get paid.
The obvious play for the team and Wiggins is for him to decline the option and sign a new deal with the Heat for more years. At 31 years old, it might be his last chance for a long-term payday before he's at the back end of his career. Powell, who is 33, will be looking for the same thing, but there are already reports that other teams are looking to lure him away from South Beach. The Pistons -- who are in dire need of floor spacing and shooting -- are aiming to poach Powell, according to Jake Fischer.
Even if the Heat somehow retain both Wiggins and Powell, which feels like a big if given all the speculation swirling around them, the Heat would be looking at a starting unit of Antetokounmpo, Adebayo, Powell, Wiggins and Davion Mitchell, with Portis and a host of spare parts off the bench. That's better than what they had last season when they finished 10th in the Eastern Conference and failed to make it out of the Play-In, but it's still not nearly good enough to consider them actual contenders despite what the oddsmakers are already selling. FanDuel has the Thunder (+250), Spurs (+260), Celtics (+600) and Knicks (+750) as the favorites to win it all next season. The newly reimagined Heat are next (+2000). Even though they're a distant fifth behind the favorites, it's hard to believe Miami, even with Giannis leading the way, will field a better team than the Nuggets, Wolves and Rockets in the West or the Pistons (and even the Cavaliers, Hawks and potentially the Pacers depending on Tyrese Haliburton's health) in the East.
Giannis no doubt levels up the Heat, but finishing somewhere in the three-to-five seed range isn't much of a flex and is unlikely to produce another parade in Miami. Besides, what kind of Antetokounmpo will we see in South Beach? He's 31 and played just 36 games this past season for a variety of reasons, including some worrisome calf strains. He's failed to clear the 65-game threshold in five of the last seven seasons, and he's in line to sign a supermax extension that will pay him massive money deep into the back end of his career. It's been five seasons since he won his only championship and six since his last MVP. He's not done by any means, but he's not in the thick of his prime either.
Neither is Riley. After a protracted feud with Butler that ended with him shipped off to Golden State, some people speculated that Riley was washed -- to which he famously responded, "maybe I am." Riley is a legend and one of the great executives in NBA history, but at 81 years old, it's fair to wonder how much longer he'll remain in charge of the franchise. It's also fair to look at what he gave up to secure Giannis's services and question whether he was willing to offload so many assets because he's in a hurry to win now, even if it comes at the expense of the organization's future. The Heat sent out unprotected first-rounders in 2031 and 2033 to Milwaukee. Those picks are five and seven years from now, respectively. They also sent out a 2030 pick swap and a second-round pick in 2033. The odds on Riley still being at the top of the org chart by then aren't zero, but they aren't good either.
But any concern about what happens down the line is trumped by padding out next season's roster as quickly as possible. Beyond Porter off the bench, the Heat are currently looking at a rotation that would include Nikola Jović and Pelle Larson, who have shown flashes at times. Dru Smith averaged nearly 18 minutes last season over 70 games. Maybe they re-sign Simone Fontecchio, who's a free agent. Maybe Keshad Johnson and Myron Gardner are in the mix? Are you making a cringe face yet? You should be making a cringe face at this point. That is not a lot for Spoelstra to work with.
The obvious need here is shooting, ball handling and shot creation. Floor spacing, too. Guards. The Heat are in desperate need of guards. The Grizzlies couldn't give Ja Morant away at the deadline. In addition to him being often injured and a terrible shooter from distance, he's owed $87 million over the next two years. Perhaps Riley ignores all that, takes another big swing and hopes Heat Culture can rehabilitate him. (The spacing would be brutal with him and Giannis but YOLO in this scenario.) Or perhaps they go shopping from the bountiful discard pile. Coby White, Collin Sexton, Anfernee Simons, Keon Ellis and De'Anthony Melton are all unrestricted free agents. Your mileage may vary on some of those names, but at this point, the Heat need warm bodies to put around Giannis and Bam.
The first order of business for Riley will be trying to keep Powell and Wiggins in Miami. After that, he'll go looking for more names to bring their talents to South Beach. He's done it before. He just did it again with Giannis. But that alone won't be enough. Riley still has more work to do.
