kon-knueppel-imagn.png
Imagn Images

It was now just over six months ago that the 2025 NBA Draft took place. We knew it was a big night even back then, headlined by a marquee player. Since then, though, this rookie class has exceeded expectations across the board through nearly one half of an NBA regular season, proving the depth and budding star power alike in the draft class of 2025.

How would the lottery have gone if we knew then what we know now? Well, we're going to explore that question from a few different perspectives. The first is with a conventional redraft, analyzing how the lottery would play out today. The second is by assessing who each team should have taken, in retrospect, given who was on the board on draft night.

Let's get to it.

1. Dallas Mavericks -- Redraft pick: Cooper Flagg

  • Original pick: Flagg
  • Pick they should've made on Draft Night: Flagg

Flagg may have gotten off to a slow start, but a lot of that was contextual -- playing him as a full-time point guard as part of a flawed roster construction -- and also an initial learning curve that wasn't so different from what we saw in his freshman season at Duke. More recently though, we've seen what we expected on draft night. While he's currently in the midst of a three-game shooting slump, he averaged 23.5 points, 6.2 rebounds, and 4.8 assists in the month of December while shooting 52% from the floor and 81% from the free-throw line. While the shot-making still hasn't clicked, and the defense isn't quite yet as exemplary as advertised, we're talking about someone who just celebrated his 19th birthday. In other words, there's a legitimate conversation to be had about who the Rookie of the Year should be, but there's still only one right answer about who should have been the No. 1 pick.

Most clutch rookie in NBA history? Cooper Flagg is making his case as Mavericks keep playing close games
Jasmyn Wimbish
Most clutch rookie in NBA history? Cooper Flagg is making his case as Mavericks keep playing close games

2. San Antonio Spurs: Kon Knueppel

  • Original pick: Dylan Harper
  • Pick they should've made on Draft Night: Knueppel

The ironic part is that there was some talk going into Draft Night about how Knueppel would be the better fit, with some people even wondering aloud if the Spurs would entertain trading down a pick or two and grabbing him. Harper was the consensus No. 2 player in June though, and he's done nothing since to diminish his value -- it's just that Knueppel has been so good. He's posted 19.4 points, 5.1 rebounds, and 3.5 assists per game on blistering 48/43/89 shooting splits. While the shot-making is truly elite, there's been playmaking to match and the defense we saw at Duke has translated fairly well. His maturity and professionalism have also been ideal for Charlotte, establishing him as a long-term piece at just 20 years old.

3. Philadelphia 76ers: VJ Edgecombe

  • Original pick: Edgecombe
  • Pick they should've made on Draft Night: Knueppel

Edgecombe was one of the league's best rookies early on, and while he struggled to sustain that same level, his best basketball yet has come in the last few weeks. He's scored 22 or more points in seven of his last 10 games. His shooting is ahead of schedule while his explosiveness and competitiveness are every bit as good as advertised. He even leads the Sixers in point differential. So while Knueppel might be the pick in a do-over, the Sixers should feel great about Edgecombe. He's been better than expected, impacted winning, and really benefitted from the amount of space that comes from playing alongside Tyrese Maxey in Nick Nurse's system. Now, he and Maxey will be the duo that the Sixers are built around moving forward.

4. Charlotte Hornets: Dylan Harper

  • Original pick: Knueppel
  • Pick they should've made on Draft Night: Knueppel

Draft Night was obviously a home-run for Charlotte. If Knueppel were off the board, and Philadelphia stayed with Edgecombe, then Harper would have made sense here. If and when they move off LaMelo Ball, they would have another potentially dynamic lead guard to build around, and until then the two could have co-existed just fine. Harper's playmaking has been every bit as good as expected in San Antonio. His combination of size, length, strength, pace, and feel has allowed him to consistently get to the paint, and that's in a situation where he doesn't get as much volume as other notable rookies. His defense has been way better than expected, but the two concerns coming into the draft -- his shooting and durability -- have proven legitimate concerns so far as he's 27% from 3 and already missed 10 games.  

5. Utah Jazz: Ace Bailey

  • Original pick: Bailey
  • Pick they should've made on Draft Night: Bailey

This is where the redraft really begins and there are a number of viable candidates including Queen, Coward, and Fears, all of whom have been more productive than Bailey so far. Bailey got off to a relatively slow start, but has since played his way into the starting lineup and made real two-way progress. The reality in Utah is that they knew Bailey was a longer-term stock, but were willing to be patient because they saw the upside, and there's been clear two-way progress thus far. One of the most notable, and encouraging areas, has been the efficiency of his time with the ball. At Rutgers, and particularly before that, he was a player who the ball would stick to. Under Will Hardy, he's already learned to make quick decisions with the ball and still has so much more runway to keep improving. 

6. Washington Wizards: Derik Queen

  • Original pick: Tre Johnson
  • Pick they should've made on Draft Night: Queen

I advocated for Washington to contemplate a Sarr/Queen paring heading into draft night and in retrospect it seems there would have been validity there. They'd still have questions to answer in the backcourt, but the collective frontcourt passing, with budding wings like Bilal Coulibaly and Kyshawn George, could have been intriguing. While Queen hasn't been quite as productive in the last two weeks, prior to that he was thriving, often as New Orlean's primary playmaker. He leads all rookies in assists on the season and was averaging 17 points and 8 rebounds on 58% shooting from the floor in the month of December prior to the last two games.

7. New Orleans Pelicans: Jeremiah Fears

  • Original pick: Fears
  • Pick they should've made on Draft Night: Queen

Fears was a polarizing prospect coming into the draft and still remains so. There was a stretch from late November through mid-December where he really seemed to be hitting his stride. Then there was an eight-game stretch when he really struggled to end the month. Most recently, he's had consecutive good games, albeit in lopsided losses. The bottom line is that it's very up and down. When he's good, he's dynamic attacking the rim and playing with extreme pace. But he can also be very streaky with his shooting, decision-making and a defensive liability. In short, this remains a big swing, but it looks like an increasingly justifiable one at this point in the draft.  

8. Brooklyn Nets: Tre Johnson

  • Original pick: Egor Dëmin
  • Pick they should've made on Draft Night: Queen

Johnson got off to a slower start than expected in Washington and then missed three weeks with injury. Since returning though, he's gradually been working his way into a better rhythm. Still though, it's a bit surprising to see him not get more usage at times, on a Wizards team that isn't playing for anything other than to develop their young assets and next year's draft position. As for Brooklyn, their actual pick of Dëmin has exceeded expectations recently, but has been utilized mostly as a shooter. That's a niche Johnson is better suited for and with both Michael Porter Jr. and Cam Thomas likely renting, and not buying in Brooklyn, Johnson's shot-making would be even more valued long-term. Additionally, if they really coveted Dëmin, they had the assets to move up and take both.

9. Toronto Raptors: Cedric Coward

The Raptors are flush with wings -- Scottie Barnes, Brandon Ingram, RJ Barrett, Gradey Dick, Ja'Kobe Walter -- but Coward is the best player on the board based on what we now know. Coward has started over half his games for the Grizzlies and been incredibly steady with his two-way productivity, even as he's experienced inconsistencies with his 3-point shooting. If the shooting pans out, he fits a coveted 3-and-D wing archetype, with extreme length. While he may be 22 years old, he's really just getting his first taste of quality competition, so his overall progression should continue.

10. Phoenix Suns: Egor Dëmin

  • Original pick: Khaman Maluach
  • Pick they should've made on Draft Night: Queen

The Suns acquired this pick in the Kevin Durant trade and addressed a clear positional need at center. Maluach, though, hasn't been ready to contribute and is instead developing his still clear long-term potential in the G League. As for Dëmin, he's rewarded Brooklyn's faith in him and justified his lottery selection. His overlap of perimeter size and passing was his calling card coming into the draft, but the progress of his shooting has exceeded all expectations. Coming out of Christmas, he was even the only rookie to average at least 19 points, 7 threes, and four made 3s per 100 possessions. Defensively, there may still be questions, but he's solid enough to contribute to a Nets defense that was second in the league in the month of December.

11. Memphis Grizzlies: Collin Murray-Boyles

  • Original pick: Cedric Coward
  • Pick they should've made on Draft Night: Coward

Memphis traded up from 16 to get Coward. Thus far, it looks like a quality investment, and certainly a great eval. If Coward were off the board, and that wasn't a possibility, CMB would have provided an immediate return, either for them or the Blazers (who originally owned the pick). He has provided steady rotation minutes for a Toronto team that has made significant strides in the eastern conference. He's been efficient and active, really impacting the game as an offensive rebounder and defender who can get deflections.

12. Chicago Bulls: Khaman Maluach

  • Original pick: Noa Essengue
  • Pick they should've made on Draft Night: Queen

The last time Essenque got on the floor for the Bulls was Nov. 24, and he looked virtually unplayable. The Frenchman just turned 19 years old three weeks ago though, so Chicago knew this was a long-term idea, but not taking Queen (who plays the same position) looks indefensible in retrospect. There are more immediate impact options on the board, but if they want to use a lottery pick on a high-upside long-term prospect (which was presumably the methodology with Essengue), then Maluach makes sense. He hasn't been ready for real rotation minutes in the NBA, but there's still optimism about what he can become with his massive size, length, and the mobility to match.

13. New Orleans Pelicans: Ryan Kalkbrenner

  • Original pick: Derik Queen
  • Pick they should've made on Draft Night: Queen

The most analyzed deal on draft night saw the Pelicans trade up with the Hawks, giving them the 23rd pick and a future unprotected pick in 2026. While the logic of not including any pick protections is suspect to say the least, their evaluation of Queen has been on the money. He isn't on the board in a redraft, but Kalkbrenner has been the Day 1 starting center in Charlotte. He doesn't provide frontcourt playmaking, but he's a rim protector, hugely efficient finisher, good offensive rebounder, and drop coverage monster who can play immediate minutes. 

14. San Antonio Spurs: Carter Bryant

  • Original pick: Bryant
  • Pick they should've made on Draft Night: Kalkbrenner

The good news is the Spurs look like they are ahead of schedule and may be contenders right now. The bad news is that doesn't lead to much time for 20-year-old developmental wings like Bryant. He's getting only spot minutes that reduce to next to nothing in close games, and the shooting hasn't translated as hoped in those very limited opportunities just yet. Long-term, it's still way too early to give up on an athletic 3-and-D wing with quality size, but Kalkbrenner could have provided someone who can impact winning right now, given them another Wemby insurance policy, and optionality for jumbo lineups.