There have been several positive surprises over the first five weeks of the 2024 NFL season, with the Minnesota Vikings and Washington Commanders topping the list. With journeyman quarterback Sam Darnold guiding the offense, Minnesota is one of only two remaining undefeated teams in the league at 5-0, while Washington sits atop the NFC East at 4-1 with rookie signal-caller Jayden Daniels leading the way.
There also have been a number of unexpected disappointments thus far, including the Jacksonville Jaguars, Cleveland Browns and Los Angeles Rams - all of whom have 1-4 records. But residing at the top of this list may be the San Francisco 49ers, who are off to a 2-3 start after losing in overtime to the Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl LVIII.
Considering their recent history, this shouldn't be cause for alarm among 49ers fans. The team lost four of its first six games in 2021 but went on to finish with a 10-7 record and reached the NFC Championship Game, which San Francisco lost to the Rams. The 49ers got off to a 3-4 start the following campaign, then reeled off 12 consecutive victories before losing quarterback Brock Purdy to injury in their third appearance in the conference title game in four years and being trounced 31-7 by the Philadelphia Eagles.
This season, San Francisco easily could be entering its Week 6 divisional showdown with the Seattle Seahawks atop the NFC West with a 4-1 mark. It entered the fourth quarter of its Week 3 matchup against the division-rival Rams with a 10-point lead but squandered it and dropped a 27-24 decision. The club experienced deja vu at home last week against another NFC West member, as the Arizona Cardinals trailed the 49ers by 10 before rallying in the final quarter and escaping with a 24-23 victory.
Those two setbacks give San Francisco as many when owning a double-digit lead in the fourth quarter as the other 31 teams combined. They also give the 49ers an 0-2 record against NFC West rivals after they went 11-1 in divisional play over the previous two seasons.
Perhaps the results of those games would have been different if the club had the 2023 NFL rushing leader on the field. Christian McCaffrey, who gained 1,459 yards on the ground and shared the league lead with 21 total touchdowns en route to being named the Offensive Player of the Year last season, has yet to play in 2024 due to calf and Achilles tendinitis issues.
Taking into account San Francisco's penchant for reaching the NFC Championship Game of late, as well as its back-to-back division titles, the SportsLine Projection Model felt strongly about the team's outlook for the 2024 campaign. The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times and is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception, had the team recording 11.7 victories while giving it a 78.9% chance to win its third consecutive NFC West crown and 93.3% likelihood just to make the playoffs.
In addition, the model projected San Francisco's prospects of reaching the Super Bowl at 31% and winning it at 17.8%. However, it came up with all of those numbers thinking McCaffrey would be in the lineup.
However, following the loss to Arizona, the model has the 49ers notching 9.4 wins and winning the NFC West 45.8% of the time. It has their chances of making the playoffs at 56.6%, reaching the Super Bowl at 13.9% and winning it at 7.3%.
San Francisco's opponent on Thursday Night Football is Seattle, which also is coming off a disappointing performance. The Seahawks, who began the season with three consecutive victories, were 7-point favorites against the New York Giants but dropped a 29-20 decision at home for their second straight defeat.
Thursday's showdown is very important for both clubs, according to the model's simulations. A victory by Seattle obviously will increase its prospects for success this season and decrease those for San Francisco, which is favored by 3.5 points but without kicker Jake Moody due to a high-ankle sprain. Journeyman Matthew Wright, who appeared in one game for the Carolina Panthers last season and 24 overall in the NFL, was signed to fill the void.
The model says that with a triumph, the Seahawks' division-title chances rise from 42.2% to 60.6%, and they will qualify for the postseason 65.2% of the time, up from the current 49.1%. Seattle's projections to reach the Super Bowl go up from 5.3% to 8% and to win the Vince Lombardi Trophy elevate from 2.2% to 3.5%.
Conversely, the SportsLine Projection Model says the 49ers will finish atop the NFC West 63.7% of the time if they defeat the Seahawks on Thursday. With that outcome, it also gives them a 71% chance to make the playoffs, a 16.5% likelihood to appear in the Super Bowl and an 8.7% expectation to win it.
But a loss would be dramatically damaging for both clubs in the model's simulations. It reduces Seattle's prospects to 24.3% for a division title, 32.8% for a postseason berth, 3.4% for a Super Bowl appearance and 1.4% for a championship.
Should San Francisco be defeated, the model drops its chances to 26.8% for the NFC West crown, 39.9% for a playoff spot, 8.7% for the conference title and 4.5% for the Lombardi Trophy.
The model is calling for a close contest between the 49ers and Seahawks on Thursday. However, it isn't one of the two with A-grade picks based on model simulations for the sixth week of the season. You can find those top-tier Week 6 NFL picks at SportsLine.