Since winning the NFC West title in 2015, the Arizona Cardinals have had more than their fair share of struggles. They have qualified for the playoffs just once over the last eight years, when they went 11-6 in 2021 - their only season with a record above .500 in that span - but lost to the division-rival Los Angeles Rams in the wild-card round.
Arizona has finished with a double-digit loss total in four of the last six campaigns and entered 2024 having posted a 4-13 record each of the previous two years. The team already has claimed four wins this season, and considering the current state of the NFC West, has a a very real chance of capturing the division crown.
The defending conference champion San Francisco 49ers and Seattle Seahawks also are 4-4 through the first eight weeks of the campaign, while the Rams sit at 3-4. The Cardinals have won both of their division games thus far, trouncing Los Angeles 41-10 in Week 2 and rallying for a 24-23 victory at San Francisco three weeks later after having trailed 23-10 at halftime.
That triumph began the current stretch during which Arizona has won three of four contests. Following a 34-13 road loss to the Green Bay Packers, the Cardinals edged the Los Angeles Chargers 17-15 in Week 7 on a field goal as time expired and trailed the Miami Dolphins by nine points in the fourth quarter before coming away with a 28-27 road victory.
One reason for Arizona's improved showing thus far in 2024 is the play of quarterback Kyler Murray. The first overall pick in the 2019 NFL Draft, Murray has been solid if not spectacular, throwing for 1,638 yards with 11 touchdowns and only three interceptions while rushing for 334 yards - the third-most among all NFL quarterbacks - and a pair of scores.
The 27-year-old Murray, who missed the final four games of the 2022 season and first nine of 2023 with a torn ACL, is forming a strong connection with rookie wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. Selected with the fourth pick of this year's draft, the 22-year-old Harrison leads the Cardinals - and is tied for fourth in the league - with five TD catches and is second on the club with 411 yards on 26 receptions.
Harrison recorded the best performance in the NFL to date in the win over the Rams, hauling in four passes for 130 yards and two touchdowns. He posted his second career 100-yard effort last weekend, when he finished with 111 yards - along with a TD - on six catches at Miami.
Tight end Trey McBride also has been a major contributor to the Cardinals' aerial attack. While he has yet to find the end zone, the 24-year-old is the team leader in both receptions (42) and receiving yards (446) despite having missed one game this year.
Meanwhile, running back James Conner is on pace to register his second straight 1,000-yard season. The 29-year-old, who rushed for a career-high 1,040 yards last season, has gained 557 on 129 carries over Arizona's first eight contests while adding four scoring runs.
According to the SportsLine Projection Model, the Cardinals enter Week 9 with a 15.2% chance of finishing atop the NFC West this year. The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times and is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception, says San Francisco takes the crown 51% of the time, Seattle wins the title in 25.5% of its simulations and the Rams prevail in 8.3% of them.
Of the four teams, Arizona has the most favorable schedule going forward. In addition to their four remaining divisional showdowns, the Cardinals have tough matchups against the Chicago Bears (4-3) and Minnesota Vikings (5-2) but also face some of the weaker clubs in the NFL in the Carolina Panthers (1-7), New York Jets (2-6) and New England Patriots (2-6).
Arizona already has played the AFC East-leading Buffalo Bills (6-2) and two of the NFC North's powerhouses in Green Bay (6-2) and the first-place Detroit Lions (6-1). The 49ers still have dates against all three of those clubs, the Seahawks must face the Packers and Vikings, and the Rams have the Bills and the Philadelphia Eagles (5-2) on the horizon.
Los Angeles visits Seattle in Week 9, with the Seahawks' chances of capturing the division title increasing to 32% with a victory and the Rams' rising to 15% with a triumph, according to the model. Its simulations also say the Cardinals' prospects for winning the NFC West improve to 22% should they defeat the Bears at home on Sunday but sink to 8% if Chicago emerges victorious.
The model is calling for a close contest between the Cardinals and Bears. But it isn't one of the five games with A-grade picks based on model simulations for the ninth week of the season. You can find those top-tier Week 9 NFL picks at SportsLine.
