The 2023 regular season is now in the books and just 14 teams have kept their hopes of hoisting the Lombardi Trophy alive. After a wild Week 18, the playoff picture is set and a jam-packed Super Wild-Card Weekend is on deck, starting Saturday and rolling all the way into Monday night. Of course, two teams you won't see are the Baltimore Ravens and San Francisco 49ers, who are off enjoying the first-round bye as the No. 1 seeds in the AFC and NFC, respectively. As for the rest of the playoff contestants, they'll begin duking it out in short order.
As we turn our attention to the opening weekend of the playoffs, let's get our impression on the early lines to see if there is anything they can tell us about whom the oddsmakers initially see coming out on top (be sure to check out the entire playoff schedule here).
Super Wild Card Weekend early odds
(All lines via Caesars Sportsbook; all games on Sunday unless noted)
| Game | Early line | Early total | Early moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
Browns -2.5 | 44 | Browns -135, Texans +115 | |
Chiefs -3.5 | 43 | Dolphins +158, Chiefs -190 | |
Bills -9.5 | 39.5 | Steelers +360, Bills -480 | |
Cowboys -7.5 | 49.5 | Packers +275, Cowboys -350 | |
Lions -3 | 51.5 | Rams +143, Lions -170 | |
Eagles at Buccaneers (Monday) | Eagles -2.5 | 44 | Eagles -150, Buccaneers +126 |
Notable movement, trends
Browns at Texans (Saturday)
The Texans jumped up as AFC South champions thanks to their win over Indy on Saturday and Jacksonville's loss to the Titans on Sunday. They now host this playoff showdown against the Joe Flacco-led Browns but will be doing so as a home dog as the oddsmakers have Cleveland as a 2.5-point road favorite. The Texans are 2-2 ATS as home underdogs this season and just 4-5 ATS at NRG Stadium overall. That said, the Browns are a different team on the road than they are at home. They were among the worst bets in the league against the number away from Cleveland, finishing the regular season with a 2-5-1 ATS road record. That includes a 1-2 ATS record as a road favorite.
Dolphins at Chiefs (Saturday)
The Chiefs will effectively be coming off of a bye week as Andy Reid elected to hold out key starters like Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce in Week 18, while the Dolphins needed to play their starters against Buffalo with the division still up in the air. Ultimately, Miami lost against the Bills and dropped to the No. 6 seed, which set up a road trip to Kansas City (the first visit back to Arrowhead for Tyreek Hill). The Chiefs are a 3.5-point favorite over a Dolphins team that is pretty banged up. They've lost key edge rushers and didn't have Jaylen Waddle or Raheem Mostert in the regular season finale. While Arrowhead has a reputation for being one of the best home-field advantages in the NFL, it hasn't exactly translated against the spread recently. The Chiefs are just 4-4 ATS at home this season. Meanwhile, the Dolphins are 4-3 ATS on the road. Weather is also expected to be a factor in this game with temperatures forecasted to be in the single digits.
Steelers at Bills
The Bills jumped up to the No. 2 seed in the AFC and are the AFC East champions after taking down the Dolphins in Week 18 and now get to host a playoff game this weekend. They'll welcome in the Steelers, who also clinched their standing in Week 18. This game is currently the biggest spread of the playoff slate with Buffalo sitting as a 9.5-point favorite. This season the Bills have been dynamite at Highmark Stadium, where they are 7-1 and have an average margin of victory of 14.8 points. That said, Buffalo is just 4-4 ATS at home, which opens the door for Pittsburgh to possibly keep this within the number. The Steelers were 5-3 ATS on the road this regular season.
Packers at Cowboys
The Cowboys secured the win in Week 18 to crown themselves NFC East champions for the third time in the last six seasons and will now host the Packers in the wild-card round. This game pits Mike McCarthy against his former Packers squad, which adds an extra dash of spice to the matchup. Similar to Buffalo above, Dallas has been one of the best teams in the league at home this year, so it's not surprising to see them as a 7.5-point favorite here. The Cowboys are 6-2 ATS at AT&T Stadium this year and have a league-best 21.5-point average margin of victory at home. Green Bay went 4-5 ATS away from Lambeau Field this season.
Rams at Lions
This is arguably the most anticipated matchup of the playoff slate with Matthew Stafford returning to Detroit to face his former Lions team in their first home playoff game since 1993. As he does, he'll be an underdog as the Lions are a 3-point favorite over the Rams. Ford Field has been a friendly spot for Dan Campbell's team this season as they are 5-3 ATS at home. However, the Rams were one of the better bets as a road team this year as they sported a 5-3-1 ATS record away from SoFi Stadium. This is the highest total of the playoff slate at 51.5 and for good reason. The Over went 11-6 for the Lions this regular season (tied for a league-best) and was 9-8 for the Rams.
Eagles at Buccaneers
The opening round of the playoffs ends at Raymon James Stadium for a showdown between the Eagles and Bucs. Philadelphia has limped down the stretch, losing five of their final six games to fall out of the top seed in the conference and first place in the division. The team is now also dealing with injuries to Jalen Hurts and A.J.Brown. Despite all that, however, they are a 2.5-point road favorite over the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay has had an opposite finish to the regular season winning five of its final six games, but is sort of limping into the postseason as well with Baker Mayfield less than 100%. The Bucs are also a dicey bet at home as they were 3-5 ATS in Tampa this year and that includes a 1-2 ATS record as a home dog. The Eagles went 3-3-1 ATS as a road favorite in the regular season.