For fans of both American football and association football, the World Cup could not come at a better time. Once the winner hoists the trophy on July 19, the focus in the United States sports spheres will shift to NFL training camp.
The World Cup quarterfinals open Thursday. In honor of that milestone and the fact that most of the matches in this year's tournament are unfolding at NFL stadiums, let's embark on a crossover between the two forms of football: using the World Cup tournament format to predict which team will win the 2027 Super Bowl.
Until this year, the World Cup operated with a 32-team format. Since there are 32 franchises in the NFL, we can seamlessly plug those teams into the old grouping and bracketing principles and hypothesize how they would stack up against each other in such a tournament. For this exercise, we will construct the groups, pick the winner of every game and see how the competition unfolds until we have predicted a Super Bowl champion.
First, a few ground rules.
One: There is no working backward. The Rams are betting favorites to win this season's championship, but the end goal here is not to automatically crown them as Super Bowl winners. We will pick every game from start to finish without driving to a specific desired outcome.
Two: Upsets occur in the World Cup, just like they do over the course of an NFL season. We're not strictly picking favorites. If Cabo Verde can reach the Round of 32, the Browns can advance out of their group.
Three: If currently injured players are on track to be available for the early part of the season, they will be included in this equation. We'll imagine this tournament takes place later in the year so as to get as many stars back on the field as possible. Patrick Mahomes, you're in. Micah Parsons, since you're probably starting the year on the PUP list, I'm holding you out.
With that, let's begin.
The draw
The pre-2026 World Cup draw divided 32 teams into four pots, with Pot 1 being reserved for the top eight qualifying teams in the FIFA Men's World Ranking, Pot 2 going to the eight next-highest-ranked and so on. For our purposes, we will use Pete Prisco's most recent NFL Power Rankings, which he released following the April draft.
The caveat with every World Cup draw is that the host nation automatically qualifies and receives a spot in Pot 1. Often, that team is ranked outside the top eight and would not have been included in the top pot if not for this stipulation. We randomly selected a designated host for our exercise, and since the Cardinals stand dead last in Prisco's power rankings, they benefit massively from the boost into Pot 1.
- Pot 1: Nos. 1-7 + Cardinals
- Pot 2: Nos. 8-15
- Pot 3: Nos. 16-23
- Pot 4: Nos. 24-31
Next, we constructed the groups by randomly selecting one team from each pot. Since FIFA does not allow two teams from the same confederation to reside in the same group (with exceptions for UEFA) we ensured that no group contained more than one team from a given NFL division.
Below are the eight groups, every team's position and where they stand in Prisco's power rankings.
| Group A | Group B | Group C | Group D |
|---|---|---|---|
A1. Cardinals (32) | B1. Packers (7) | C1. 49ers (6) | D1. Broncos (4) |
A2. Jaguars (5) | B2. Ravens (14) | C2. Texans (15) | D2. Buccaneers (16) |
A3. Bears (10) | B3. Falcons (24) | C3. Lions (18) | D3. Vikings (19) |
A4. Bengals (17) | B4. Giants (25) | C4. Browns (30) | D4. Dolphins (31) |
| Group E | Group F | Group G | Group H |
|---|---|---|---|
E1. Seahawks (1) | F1. Cowboys (8) | G1. Bills (3) | H1. Rams (2) |
E2. Chiefs (12) | F2. Patriots (11) | G2. Eagles (13) | H2. Chargers (9) |
E3. Steelers (21) | F3. Colts (20) | G3. Saints (23) | H3. Panthers (22) |
E4. Jets (27) | F4. Titans (29) | G4. Raiders (28) | H4. Commanders (26) |
Preparations are complete. Now, onto the games!
Group A
| Pos | Teams | W | L | T | PD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Jaguars | 2 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 6 |
2 | Bengals | 2 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 6 |
3 | Bears | 2 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 6 |
4 | Cardinals | 0 | 3 | 0 | -42 | 0 |
Week 1 results
Jaguars 31, Cardinals 13
Bengals 28, Bears 24
Week 2 results
Bears 28, Cardinals 17
Jaguars 23, Bengals 21
Week 3 results
Bengals 34, Cardinals 21
Bears 20, Jaguars 16
Group A goes topsy-turvy because of the Cardinals' automatic Pot 1 inclusion as the designated host. They might very well be the worst team in the NFL. This opens the door for the Jaguars to prove their second half of 2025 was a legitimate breakout and for the Bengals to show that their defensive roster moves this offseason are difference makers. It is a disappointment for Caleb Williams not to advance out of the group stage, as he seems poised to make another leap into stardom. But I'm buying that Cincinnati finally has a well-rounded roster, and I can't shake the images of that eight-game winning streak that Jacksonville rattled off last year, which included a bevy of blowouts. Plus, what happens when the turnover luck inevitably runs out for Chicago?
Group B
| Pos | Team | W | L | T | PD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Ravens | 3 | 0 | 0 | 35 | 9 |
2 | Packers | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
3 | Giants | 1 | 2 | 0 | -17 | 3 |
4 | Falcons | 1 | 2 | 0 | -21 | 3 |
Week 1 results
Ravens 23, Packers 20
Giants 21, Falcons 17
Week 2 results
Falcons 21, Packers 20
Ravens 30, Giants 16
Week 3 results
Packers 24, Giants 17
Ravens 28, Falcons 10
The arrivals of Jesse Minter and Trey Hendrickson should provide a lift to a Ravens defense that uncharacteristically struggled last year, and that's enough to get them back into the playoffs this season and to win Group B in our exercise. At the bottom of the group, the Falcons remain as volatile as ever with a subpar quarterback situation and a host of elite talent around whichever signal-caller wins the job. I have questions about the Packers' passing game with Romeo Doubs and Dontayvion Wicks out the door, but the entire operation remains good enough to defeat the rising Giants in a must-win group-stage finale and move on to the knockout rounds.
Group C
| Pos | Team | W | L | T | PD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Texans | 2 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 7 |
2 | 49ers | 2 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 7 |
3 | Lions | 1 | 2 | 0 | -6 | 3 |
4 | Browns | 0 | 3 | 0 | -23 | 0 |
Week 1 results
49ers 34, Lions 30
Texans 13, Browns 6
Week 2 results
Texans 20, 49ers 20
Lions 24, Browns 16
Week 3 results
49ers 21, Browns 13
Texans 30, Lions 20
What a contrast of styles we have here. The Lions and 49ers are a couple of top-10 offenses, while the Texans and Browns ought to boast two of the stingiest defenses in the NFL, even in a post-Myles Garrett world in Cleveland. The offensive line shakeup in Houston leads me to believe C.J. Stroud will perform closer to his rookie self than what he showed in the 2025 playoffs, which leads the Texans to a Group C crown. Detroit, meanwhile, is the greatest letdown of the bunch, as its secondary issues once again limit the upside of a squad that can put points on the board with ease. Oh, and since this is a soccer-themed endeavor, there has to be a tie-in here somewhere. The Texans and 49ers go the distance in their head-to-head matchup and still advance with relative ease.
Group D
| Pos | Team | W | L | T | PD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Broncos | 3 | 0 | 0 | 30 | 9 |
2 | Vikings | 2 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 6 |
3 | Buccaneers | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
4 | Dolphins | 0 | 3 | 0 | -50 | 0 |
Week 1 results
Broncos 24, Buccaneers 20
Vikings 21, Dolphins 10
Week 2 results
Broncos 17, Vikings 16
Buccaneers 28, Dolphins 14
Week 3 results
Broncos 38, Dolphins 13
Vikings 23, Buccaneers 17
I still believe in Kyler Murray. Not to the extent that he will light the world on fire, but to the extent that he can be an average to slightly-above-average quarterback capable of taking full advantage of Justin Jefferson being his right-hand man. The Vikings can really threaten the Broncos in this group if everything comes together there. We're still going with Denver to roll through the group stage, though. The reigning AFC runners-up will not have much trouble with a Buccaneers team trending in the wrong direction and a Dolphins squad that is squarely in the race for the No. 1 pick in next year's draft.
Group E
| Pos | Team | W | L | T | PD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Seahawks | 3 | 0 | 0 | 33 | 9 |
2 | Chiefs | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 6 |
3 | Steelers | 1 | 2 | 0 | -11 | 3 |
4 | Jets | 0 | 3 | 0 | -37 | 0 |
Week 1 results
Seahawks 28, Chiefs 27
Steelers 20, Jets 14
Week 2 results
Seahawks 31, Steelers 17
Chiefs 30, Jets 17
Week 3 results
Seahawks 31, Jets 13
Chiefs 21, Steelers 18
There are some juicy revenge games in this group. Kenneth Walker III vs. the team with which he just won Super Bowl MVP. Aaron Rodgers, on his retirement tour, is facing one of his former squads. DK Metcalf is taking on the team that drafted him for the second time in as many years. Walker's move from the Seahawks to the Chiefs leaves Seattle with a lot of inexperience in the running game and could take Kansas City back to the forefront of the NFL's offenses. But even then, it's the defending champions who take the group. I'll be curious to see how much more competitive the Jets are this season after they seemingly raised their defense's floor with a complete personnel overhaul. Probably not enough to get them out of the conversation for the No. 1 pick, but maybe enough to keep them significantly more competitive in their losses.
Group F
| Pos | Team | W | L | T | PD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Patriots | 2 | 1 | 0 | 22 | 6 |
2 | Cowboys | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 6 |
3 | Colts | 1 | 2 | 0 | -8 | 3 |
4 | Titans | 1 | 2 | 0 | -22 | 3 |
Week 1 results
Cowboys 42, Patriots 38
Titans 21, Colts 20
Week 2 results
Colts 26, Cowboys 24
Patriots 34, Titans 17
Week 3 results
Cowboys 31, Titans 25
Patriots 28, Colts 19
The Patriots cruised past inferior competition last year en route to the Super Bowl and only got stronger in the offseason, so they are a safe bet to make it out of the group stage. The lone offense capable of keeping up with them in this group resides in Dallas, where Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens might actually have a competent defense to help them out this year. I see a chasm between these teams and the others. Things were starting to turn sideways for the Colts in 2025 before Daniel Jones' injury, and there is no guarantee he looks like the best version of himself again after tearing his Achilles. And even though I'm bullish on the Titans over the long-term with their fun young core and a respectable coaching hire, I just can't see them getting past the top two teams in this group.
Group G
| Pos | Team | W | L | T | PD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Bills | 2 | 1 | 0 | 27 | 6 |
2 | Eagles | 2 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 6 |
3 | Saints | 1 | 2 | 0 | -9 | 3 |
4 | Raiders | 1 | 2 | 0 | -35 | 3 |
Week 1 results
Bills 35, Eagles 28
Raiders 20, Saints 17
Week 2 results
Saints 24, Bills 20
Eagles 27, Raiders 13
Week 3 results
Bills 41, Raiders 17
Eagles 31, Saints 21
A trio of coaching changes creates a bit of volatility in Group G. The Bills' internal hire of Joe Brady ought to keep things stable in Buffalo; the status quo has been slightly underwhelming for such a talented team, though, with lopsided wins paired with the occasional head-scratching, disappointing loss. That makes Josh Allen and his team susceptible to an upset at the hands of a Saints team that might have something in Tyler Shough. Elsewhere, all eyes in Philadelphia are on new offensive coordinator Sean Mannion. I like his chances of helping Jalen Hurts and Saquon Barkley recapture some magic, even with A.J. Brown gone. And Klint Kubiak's arrival marks a new era in Las Vegas -- one in which the Raiders should be capable of punching above their weight class for a couple of wins that keep everyone excited about their future.
Group H
| Pos | Team | W | L | T | PD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Rams | 2 | 1 | 0 | 42 | 6 |
2 | Chargers | 1 | 2 | 0 | -6 | 3 |
3 | Commanders | 1 | 2 | 0 | -15 | 3 |
4 | Panthers | 1 | 2 | 0 | -21 | 3 |
Week 1 results
Chargers 35, Rams 34
Commanders 24, Panthers 20
Week 2 results
Rams 31, Panthers 12
Commanders 26, Chargers 21
Week 3 results
Rams 41, Commanders 17
Panthers 21, Chargers 19
Welcome to the group of death. This pod features the preseason Super Bowl favorites, a contender in the stout AFC West, the reigning NFC South champions and a potentially resurgent team led by Jayden Daniels. Play starts with a spicy intracity rivalry clash between the Rams and Chargers, which undoubtedly represents the biggest threat to Sean McVay's club making a perfect run through the group. I actually don't hate the Chargers' ability to pull off the modest upset there now that their offensive line is healthy and rebuilt.
Round of 16
Jaguars 21, Packers 17
Texans 20, Vikings 13
Seahawks 31, Cowboys 27
Bills 30, Chargers 24
Bengals 28, Ravens 27
Broncos 19, 49ers 17
Patriots 31, Chiefs 25
Rams 24, Eagles 14
The Round of 16 is the first stage in which divisional matchups are possible. How tasty is the showdown between the Bengals and Ravens? The team that took Trey Hendrickson away from Cincinnati squares off against a defense that could be noticeably better in 2026, even without the star pass rusher. Yes, Lamar Jackson has controlled the series against Joe Burrow the last few years, but the latter rolled to an 18-point victory in one of their two battles last season to prove he and his weapons are still some of the best the NFL has to offer.
Quarterfinals
Texans 16, Jaguars 9
Bills 23, Seahawks 21
Bengals 34, Broncos 30
Rams 28, Patriots 16
There will be no Super Bowl repeat for the Seahawks. Instead, the Bills get past them in a key step towards expelling their postseason demons. Buffalo's only real weakness is run defense, and I'm not sure this edition of the Seahawks can be fully trusted to take advantage. Is Zach Charbonnet ready and healthy enough to step into a featured role? Can Jadarian Price reasonably shoulder the load as a rookie if not? I have fewer questions about the Rams in one of the other quarterfinal matchups. They make it back-to-back wins by double digits in the knockout rounds as the Patriots, for the second consecutive year, hit a wall against elite competition.
Semifinals
Bills 17, Texans 13
Rams 31, Bengals 21
There comes a point where I have to halt my blind faith in a C.J. Stroud turnaround. This is that moment: A matchup against the defense that led the league in passing yards allowed in 2025. The Bills head to the Super Bowl for the first time in the Josh Allen era. They will meet the Rams, who pull away late from the Bengals in perhaps the greatest passing showdown the league could offer in 2026. For as many improvements as Cincinnati made defensively, it is not enough to contain Matthew Stafford, Puka Nacua and Kyren Williams. This is also an opportunity for Myles Garrett to wreak havoc on Joe Burrow, given the Bengals' perennial issues at the line of scrimmage.
Third-place game
Texans 20, Bengals 17
If the World Cup stages a third-place game, so too must the NFL. It's fair to wonder how much these teams actually want to be here. The prize is effectively a participation trophy. Congratulations, Texans, your defense leads you to a bronze medal.
Super Bowl
Rams 27, Bills 20
Since 1977, the preseason Super Bowl favorite has only hoisted the Vince Lombardi Trophy eight times. The success rate is even lower over the last three decades, with only four favorites getting the job done. But here's the thing: Not all of those perceived No. 1 teams were so clearly ahead of the pack as are the Rams. If there's a hole on this roster, I'd love to know where it is. Health willing, Los Angeles will have more top-flight talent than anyone in the league this year by a meaningful margin. All it takes is one loss to stop what should be a freight train, but I think they got all the losing out of their system in the group stage. I find it incredibly hard to pick against them more than once unless they give me a reason to.
