Agent's Take: Texans should be all in with new Will Anderson Jr. contract, but tread lightly with C.J. Stroud

The contract situations of edge rusher Will Anderson Jr. and quarterback C.J. Stroud move to the forefront with the Houston Texans after a 28-16 loss to the New England Patriots in the AFC divisional playoffs. As 2023 draft picks, Anderson and Stroud became eligible for contract extensions when the 2025 regular season ended on Jan. 4.

The Texans giving Anderson a new deal is a no-brainer. Anderson was named a first-team All-Pro after posting a career- high 12 sacks this season. The 2023 NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year had double-digit sacks for the second straight season.

Anderson's 85 quarterback pressures (combined sacks, quarterback hits and quarterback hurries) were the league's second-most, according to the NFL's Next Gen Stats. He also had Pro Football Focus' best pass-rush win rate for the 2025 season at 26.2%.

Anderson elevated his game during the playoffs. He was dominant against the Patriots with three sacks and two forced fumbles.

Fortunately for Anderson, the Texans prefer shorter-term deals. Nick Caserio hasn't done an extension longer than three years since becoming general manager in January 2021. 

The Texans created a blueprint for All-Pro first-round picks with cornerback Derek Stingley Jr.'s player-friendly contract extension after his third NFL season last March. Nicole Lynn, Anderson's agent, should insist that the Texans follow this blueprint with her client. 

Stingley became the NFL's first $30 million-per-year defensive back when he signed a three-year, $90 million extension with $89,026,026 in guarantees, of which $48,026,026 was fully guaranteed at signing. The $89,026,026 is a defensive back record for overall guarantees. Stingley's deal happened so quickly that the Texans didn't have to pick up his $17.595 million fifth-year option for 2026, which was still factored into the equation.

Picking up Anderson's fifth year in 2027 is a foregone conclusion if a deal isn't done prior to the May 2 deadline for such options. Anderson's fifth-year salary will be the 2026 transition tag for defensive ends since he was named to one Pro Bowl on the original ballot during his first three NFL seasons.

The 2026 transition tag for defensive ends projects to 6.739% of the 2026 salary cap (it's 7.118% for 2025). If the 2026 salary cap is set at $300 million, a 7.45% increase over 2025's $279.2 million salary cap, the defensive end figure should be $20.216 million.

Stingley's deal is extremely front-loaded. He has 23.33%, 28.33%, 51.11% and 75% of his new money, respectively, through the fourth year of his rookie contract (2025), the option year (2026), his first new contract year (2027) and his second new contract year (2028). In a neutral deal which isn't front-loaded or back-loaded, there would be 8.33%, 16.67%, 33.33% and 66.67% of the new money, respectively, after these junctures.

The latest data point in an edge rusher market that dramatically escalated in 2025 is the four-year, $180 million extension Aidan Hutchinson received from the Detroit Lions in October, averaging $45 million per year with a non-quarterback-record $141 million in guarantees. Hutchinson's deal came in right behind Micah Parsons' market-setting, four-year, $186 million extension, averaging $46.5 million per year, that was a part of his trade from the Dallas Cowboys to the Green Bay Packers as the start of the 2025 regular season was approaching.

Lynn isn't a stranger to market-setting edge rusher deals. She made Myles Garrett the NFL's first $40 million-per-year non-quarterback with two years left on his contract like Anderson now has. Garrett's four-year, $160 million extension with the Cleveland Browns last March raised the bar for edge rushers by 12.77%. 

Overall, the top of the edge rusher market increased by 36.76% in 2025. Despite 2025's dramatic market reset, Anderson should try to have his cake and eat it too by becoming the league's highest-paid non-quarterback (and edge rusher) eclipsing Parsons while also setting a new standard for overall guarantees on the shorter-term deal.

Texans' C.J. Stroud may have cost himself millions with 4 INTs; Head-scratching game for Sean McVay

Tyler Sullivan

Pumping the brakes on Stroud

It could be a different story with Stroud. He has regressed since having one of the greatest debut seasons for a quarterback when he was named 2023's NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year. The Texans had 2023's biggest turnaround winning the AFC South with a 10-7 record after going 3-13-1 in 2022 as Stroud completed 63.9% of his passes for 4,108 yards with 23 touchdowns and five interceptions to post a 100.8 passer rating.

There were some mitigating factors in Stroud's inability to rebound this season from a sophomore slump in 2024. Wholesale changes were made in revamping the offensive line, which included trading five-time Pro Bowl left tackle Laremy Tunsil to the Washington Commanders. The running game took a hit with Joe Mixon, who rushed for over 1,000 yards in 2024, missing the season because of a foot injury. There were also growing pains with new offensive coordinator Nick Caley.

None of that excuses Stroud ending the season with the worst two-game stretch of his NFL career during the playoffs. Stroud's four interceptions, all in the first half, against the Patriots followed five fumbles (two were lost) in a wild card game win over the Pittsburgh Steelers. He connected on 51.9% of his passes for 462 yards with two touchdowns and five interceptions to post a 51.8 passer rating in the two playoff games.

Stroud's fifth-year option for 2027 projects to 8.395% of the 2026 salary cap, which is down from 9.09% in 2025. His option-year salary should be $25.186 million with a $300 million salary cap in 2026. This option will surely be exercised since $25.186 million is a reasonable number for a starting quarterback. 

Kyler Murray should serve as a cautionary tale for doing a lucrative extension with a first-round quarterback at the earliest possible instance. He signed a five-year, $230.5 million extension (worth up to $238 million through salary escalators) with the Arizona Cardinals in July 2022 that made him the NFL's second-highest-paid player at $46.1 million per year. The 2019 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year was coming off a terrible performance in the one playoff game of his professional career, a lopsided loss to the eventual Super Bowl LVI champion Los Angeles Rams, when he got his new deal.

Murray was effectively benched for Jacoby Brissett, a journeyman backup quarterback, prior to going on injured reserve in Week 10 with a right foot sprain suffered five games into the 2025 season. Arizona's offense operated more efficiently with Brissett at the helm.

The Cardinals are expected to part ways with Murray this offseason. Unless a trade materializes, the Cardinals will have $52,429,354 in 2026 dead money, a salary cap for a player no longer on a team's roster, largely thanks to $36.8 million of Murray's 2026 salary being fully guaranteed by releasing him conventionally.

Stroud is represented by David Mulugheta, who negotiated the Texans' last big quarterback deal. Deshaun Watson signed a four-year, $156 million extension in 2020 making him the NFL's second-highest-paid player at $39 million per year. He was coming off a 2019 season as a third-year player in which he ranked in the NFL's top 10 for touchdown passes and completion percentage while the Texans won the AFC South. Unlike Stroud, Watson elevated his play in the postseason when the Texans were eliminated in the divisional playoff round by the Kansas City Chiefs, who won Super Bowl LIV.

The Texans appear to have a good working relationship with Mulugheta. He represents Stingley. 

Mulugheta has negotiated another high-end quarterback deal since Watson's fully guaranteed, five-year, $230 million contract in 2022 when the Texans traded him to the Cleveland Browns. The four-year, $220 million extension Jordan Love received from the Packers at the start of training camp in July 2024 put him in a tie with Joe Burrow and Trevor Lawrence as the league's highest-paid player at $55 million per year. 

Love was coming off a stellar second half of the 2023 season as a first-time starter and raised his game in the playoffs. He was the best quarterback on the field in Green Bay's wild card round upset of the Cowboys and season-ending loss to the San Francisco 49ers in the divisional playoffs. Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott was the NFL MVP runner-up and 49ers quarterback Brock Prudy was an MVP finalist in 2023.

Mulugheta could contend that Lawrence wasn't as accomplished as Stroud through the first three years of their respective careers when the Jacksonville Jaguars rewarded him with a five-year, $275 million extension in June 2024. Stroud hasn't missed the playoffs, like Lawrence, and the Texans have won a playoff game each year with him under center.

Lawrence regressed in 2023 after seemingly turning a corner during the latter part of the 2022 season while leading the Jaguars to the playoffs and the AFC South crown. The Jaguars imploded down the stretch of the 2023 season losing five of the last six games to miss the playoffs after being in control of the AFC South with an 8-3 record. Ball security was Lawrence's Achilles' heel. His 60 career turnovers (39 interceptions and 21 fumbles lost) in his first three NFL seasons were the most during this span.

Sometimes the best deals are the ones you don't make. That should be applicable to the Texans if Mulugheta drives a hard bargain in any contract extension talks for Stroud that take place before the 2026 regular season begins. Waiting would be more costly if Stroud has a 2026 season comparable to his rookie campaign. Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson is likely to top Prescott's $60 million per year to become the new standard bearer for quarterback salaries sooner rather than later. That could be a risk worth the Texans taking to get a better indication whether Stroud can provide quarterback stability for years to come.