What did I tell you about the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last week? This is the team that's going to win the NFC South! They were listed at +400 to win the division last week, and are now +195 over at BetMGM Sportsbook.
This past NFL Sunday was a doozy. I had fun sweating out that Chicago Bears +3.5, but the Dallas Cowboys vs. Washington Commanders game was a straight-up fever dream. Not only did the Cowboys win despite being 10.5-point underdogs, but it was the second game in NFL history to feature two missed extra points and two kick return touchdowns. Is Jayden Daniels OK? Is he still dealing with some issues from that rib injury? I don't know if we can argue that anymore. Maybe Kliff Kingsbury's offense has been figured out.
This week, I want to discuss if the San Francisco 49ers are dead, and the AFC sleeper that maybe we should be paying more attention to.
1. Are the 49ers cooked?
The 49ers have now lost two straight games, and reside in last place in the NFC West at 5-6. We thought San Francisco was poised for a massive second-half run after the Week 9 bye with Christian McCaffrey back, but the 49ers haven't looked good over their last three contests.
It wasn't a surprise the 49ers fell to the Green Bay Packers on Sunday with so many key contributors out. Players such as Brock Purdy, Trent Williams, Nick Bosa and of course Brandon Aiyuk were not in the lineup, while the 49ers suffered their largest loss since 2018 (28 points). The Purdy issue is definitely worrisome.
The 49ers quarterback reportedly had his shoulder "lock up on him" during practice Thursday, per Fox Sports, and it remains to be seen when he will return. It could be this week vs. the Buffalo Bills. Let me rephrase that: It BETTER be this week vs. the Bills in Buffalo. Kyle Shanahan is 9-31 when a quarterback not named Brock Purdy or Jimmy Garoppolo starts for him.
This is the latest into a season San Francisco has been below .500 since the end of 2020. To make matters worse, Tankathon believes the 49ers have the fifth-toughest remaining schedule in the NFL. Check it out:
49ers remaining schedule
| Week | Opponent |
|---|---|
13 | at Buffalo Bills |
14 | vs. Chicago Bears |
15 | vs. Los Angeles Rams |
16 | |
17 | vs. Detroit Lions |
18 |
This is the fourth time over the last six games the 49ers are playing a team coming off their bye! What did John Lynch do to the NFL schedule makers? The NFC West is an absolute cluster, so I guess you can't rule out the 49ers going on a run. But, it still feels unlikely.
The 49ers have never made the playoffs after a 5-6 or worse start, and Vegas doesn't believe they will rebound either. BetMGM Sportsbook has the 49ers at +400 to make the playoffs! Let's take a look at what SportsLine data scientist Stephen Oh's simulations say. Spoiler: It's not good.
49ers' chances
| Possibility | Percentage chance |
|---|---|
Win division | 12.1% |
Make the playoffs | 16.5% |
Win the conference | 1.8% |
Win Super Bowl | 0.7% |
2. Are the Dolphins the AFC sleeper we should be talking about?
I'd like to have a conversation about the team in South Beach. I feel like no one is talking about the Dolphins because they have played two bad teams over the last two weeks, and still have a losing record at 5-6. They are currently the No. 8 seed in the AFC behind the Los Angeles Chargers and Denver Broncos -- two teams likely the entire NFL world likes more than Mike McDaniel's squad. But what I want to do is attempt to get ahead of narratives, and a narrative could be born this Thanksgiving in Green Bay.
The Dolphins have now won three straight games after losing three straight. They notched an impressive road victory over the Rams on "Monday Night Football" in Week 10, then blew out the lowly Las Vegas Raiders and New England Patriots. Still, you can't argue this team isn't building momentum for themselves.
Tua Tagovailoa threw a season-high four touchdowns to go along with 317 passing yards last week, Jaylen Waddle exploded for 144 receiving yards and the offense has found a legitimate weapon in Jonnu Smith. Plus that De'Von Achane guy is pretty good. He's scored six touchdowns over the past five games. The Dolphins are averaging 30.3 points per game during this three-game win streak after averaging 15.5 points per game over their first eight contests.
We know the offense can be explosive, but a reason I have an eye on the Dolphins is Anthony Weaver's defense. They kept Matthew Stafford's offense out of the end zone entirely in prime time, held the Raiders running backs to 29 yards on 11 carries, then kept Drake Maye out of the end zone until garbage time while his offense converted just three of 14 third downs. Miami has held its last three opponents to 16.3 points per game while racking up 11 sacks. This unit is coming along.
Miami's greatest obstacle
There's a reason why maybe the Dolphins aren't being talked about. Why your general NFL fan is fine "ignoring" them for the time being -- and it's a reason I can't argue with. Dolphins aren't found swimming among icebergs.
Yes, the COLD.
The Bills are going to win the AFC East, meaning if Miami makes the playoffs, Tua and Co. will have to play on the road somewhere probably cold. We all saw what happened last year vs. Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs in one of the most forgettable playoff games ever. Tagovailoa has lost the six coldest starts of his career, and thrown just six touchdowns compared to eight interceptions in those games. Why should we expect the Dolphins offense to get hot in the cold after what we've seen in years past?
What I will say is the Dolphins have a chance to change some minds this Thanksgiving. What if they beat the Packers at frigid Lambeau Field?
"I'm excited to kill narratives, so let's go. Bring it on," Tagovailoa said this week, via the Miami Herald.