This is more like what we expected, and not in a good way.
The Commanders have dropped three straight games and are 7-5 this season, hanging onto the final NFC wild-card spot. The losing streak has brought things very much back down to earth for a team that was riding an unbelievable historic high: The 7-2 start was the franchise's best since 1996.
Again, even after the electric start, this is more like what was expected of the Commanders, at least from an outsider's perspective. In fact, Washington has already gone over its preseason win total of 6.5. This wasn't supposed to be "the year" and maybe not even the year before the year. The Commanders' build -- Dan Quinn didn't want it called a rebuild -- was always going to take time, something Quinn, GM Adam Peters and owner Josh Harris all acknowledged.
But then the 7-2 start came. Jayden Daniels was lights out, providing unforgettable moments like the game-winner to Terry McLaurin on "Monday Night Football" against the Bengals and the Hail Mary to Noah Brown against the Bears. The offense wasn't just really good; it was was unprecedented.
During the three-game losing streak, a variety of issues have popped up, mostly on an offense that has gone from historically elite to mediocre at best. Here's what's gone wrong, and here's what can be fixed:
1. Too many negative plays, not enough responses
One of the things that the Commanders did a truly remarkable -- even historic -- job of early in the season was responding from negative plays. Now, those negative plays are accumulating instead.
Commanders After Play for 0 or Negative Yards | First 9 Games | Last 3 Games |
Yards per play | 8.4 | 3.8 |
Pct of plays that go for 0 or negative yards | 35% | 50% |
Success rate | 44% | 33% |
Explosive play rate | 23% | 11% |
This is a massive drop-off. It seemed like the Commanders always had answers for negative plays early in the season. Now, they have none -- their yards per play following negative plays was first in the NFL through nine weeks; it is 26th since.
This has been exacerbated by the fact that the Commanders are taking more negative plays in the first place. Washington has had 0 or negative yards on 37% of its plays since Week 10, 26th in the NFL. Some of this can be attributed to Daniels' decline, which Chris Trapasso took a look at. A major area of concern is Daniels isn't avoiding sacks like he used to. Can it be attributed to lingering effects from his rib injury? Maybe. And if you attribute it to that, there's reason to believe it will get better. Regardless, Washington has to find ways to generate positive plays from negative situations.
2. Terry McLaurin isn't involved consistently
If you look at McLaurin's numbers over the past three games, you see two 100-yard games and a dud against the Eagles, who are doing a terrific job defending everyone. But box scores can be deceiving. McLaurin -- head and shoulders above every other Washington receiver -- has garnered many of those yards late. In fact, he had 16 yards against the Cowboys through 59 minutes before he and Daniels connected on a miraculous 86-yard touchdown that made it look like Washington might have pulled off another miracle.
Of course, Austin Seibert missed the extra point, making it all for naught.
This has been a consistent pattern during the losing streak.
Terry McLaurin by Quarter Since Week 10 | First | Second | Third | Fourth |
Receptions/Targets | 1/3 | 2/2 | 5/6 | 3/3 |
Yards | 9 | 12 | 108 | 96 |
Twenty-one first-half receiving yards over the course of three games isn't good enough. His target share overall has fallen from 23% over the first nine games to 14% over the last three.
McLaurin, a very good deep threat and reliable intermediate receiver, isn't getting those looks, either. He was averaging 15 air yards per target through Week 9. He is at 11.57 since, and taking out the touchdown above, it's down to 10.3. Washington's downslide in passing depth is an issue across the board, and especially so for its top weapon.
Washington has to find a way to get McLaurin involved earlier, whether with a more creative route tree, more creative alignments (he plays almost exclusively on the left side of the formation and almost never goes in motion) or simple game plan emphasis. It's on Kliff Kingsbury to figure out ways to let Daniels push the ball downfield and generate more big plays for everyone.
3. Get the run game back on track, and stop the run
Washington's 35.3% success rate on running back rushes against the Cowboys was its worst this season, and that came against one of the worst rushing defenses in the NFL. Brian Robinson Jr. left early with an ankle injury, and Austin Ekeler left late with a concussion.
This is worrisome. Kliff Kingsbury's "horizontal raid" is a misnomer. He really likes to run the ball. Only the Colts and Eagles have a lower Pass Rate Over Expected, which very much makes sense given the construction of those two teams. If Washington wants to play that way as well, that's fine. But it has to be effective running the ball, too, and that just hasn't been the case. Again, it seems like Daniels might need to shoulder more of the load.
On the other side, Washington is 29th in opponent rushing success rate. Only the Cowboys, Panthers and Bengals are worse. One week after Saquon Barkley ripped off several rushing big plays late to seal an Eagles win, Washington allowed a banged-up Cowboys offense to post a 46% rushing success rate, well up from the 33% Dallas registered the week before against Houston.
4. Too many big plays allowed
Lost in the special teams disaster of Sunday was several miscues by Washington's defense. Late in the first half, with Dallas seemingly willing to go into the half trailing 3-0, both Benjamin St-Juste and Jeremy Chinn got beat for a 41-yard pass to Jalen Brooks with just seconds remaining. Brandon Aubrey made a 46-yard field goal to tie things up.
Late in the fourth quarter, again, before the special teams wildness, Washington completely blew a coverage on a third-and-6, resulting in Luke Schoonmaker's wide-open 22-yard touchdown.
Had Washington saved three points before halftime and another four by simply being on the same page on the Schoonmaker touchdown, maybe this article doesn't exist and Washington is 8-4 and feeling good after a bounce-back win over a rival.
Big plays have been an issue over the past three weeks: Washington has allowed eight plays of 25+ yards, tied for fourth-most in the league. And they've come at crucial times: a Barkley touchdown run in Week 11 and Mike Williams' game-winning touchdown in Week 10.
There is hope here, and it comes in the form of Marshon Lattimore's impending return. The star trade deadline acquisition hasn't played since coming over from New Orleans, but Quinn appeared hopeful he'd return in Week 13 against the Titans. If he returns, that's a bonafide No. 1 cornerback the Commanders desperately need to pair alongside impressive rookie Mike Sainristil.
However, another way to prevent big plays is getting pressure. This was a question mark for Washington entering the year, and it loomed large Sunday. Washington produced just four pressures against Cooper Rush playing behind an injured offensive line. The four pressures and 11.8% pressure rate were both season lows by a wide margin. The Commanders must figure out a way to get pressure, especially coming up against some mistake-prone quarterbacks.
5. Errors in crucial moments
It's not just two missed extra points, a missed field goal and two kick return touchdowns against the Cowboys.
- In Week 10, Jer'Zhan Newton jumped offsides on a fourth down, handing the Steelers a victory.
- Against the Cowboys, apart from the two defensive errors listed above, Robinson bobbled a ball right into Chauncey Golston's arms for an interception, and John Bates lost a critical fumble late.
- Over the past three weeks, only the Titans have committed more defensive penalties.
- Washington has five turnovers in its last three games. It had three in its first nine.
In the NFL, the margins are tiny. Washington has played eight one-possession games this season, including each of its last three contests, all losses. Small errors are having a big impact.
So, are their playoff hopes in danger?
The quick answer is "yes." SportsLine still gives Washington a 75% chance to make the postseason, and that's largely for three reasons:
- What appears to be a manageable schedule down the stretch.
- Washington is one game up on Arizona for the seventh spot and holds the tiebreaker.
- No other NFC team is above .500.
The Commanders face the Titans, the Saints (after a bye), the Eagles and the Cowboys again to finish the season. That's three games they should be clear favorites in and a home game against Atlanta that will likely be viewed as a toss-up at worst.
Of course, the Commanders were huge favorites against the Cowboys. Games are won on the field, not on paper or at sportsbooks. Some issues facing this team are the ones we'd expect from a young, overhauled team that has performed ahead of schedule. Some are frustrating slumps, and some are worrisome season-long trends. Washington still has time to get all three in order, and a Week 14 bye certainly helps. But time is of the essence, and Washington can't allow the losses to continue to snowball.