The NFL playoffs are finally here. With two of the three AFC playoff games taking place on Saturday, the final game of the conference's slate pits the Buffalo Bills against the Denver Broncos on Sunday afternoon.
Buffalo claimed the No. 2 seed in the AFC with its 13-4 record, storming to an AFC East title despite many prognosticators assuming that it would fall off after cutting ties with a lot of veteran talent last offseason. Josh Allen is a top candidate for Most Valuable Player after his monstrous season, and he has his team set up for an extended postseason run.
Denver, meanwhile, surprised almost everybody in the football world by making the playoffs with a rookie quarterback in the first season of the Russell Wilson Dead Cap era, and is looking to come away with an upset. The Broncos haven't won a playoff game since Peyton Manning's final Super Bowl, and they're looking to change that here.
Which of these two teams will advance to the divisional round? We'll find out soon enough. Before we break down the matchup, here's a look at how you can watch the game.
Bills vs. Broncos where to watch
Date: Sunday, Jan. 12 | Time: 1 p.m. ET
Location: Highmark Stadium (Orchard Park, New York)
TV: CBS | Stream: Paramount+ (try for free)
Follow: CBS Sports App
Betting odds: Bills -8.5, O/U 48 (via Caesars Sportsbook)
When the Broncos have the ball
Denver has gotten better-than-expected results out of its offense this season, thanks in large part to an excellent performance from the offense line and the play-calling acumen of head coach Sean Payton. The Broncos have kept rookie quarterback Bo Nix extremely clean throughout the season, and Payton has made sure not to put more on Nix's plate than he can handle. The output from all that was the 19th-most yards and 10th-most points in the NFL during the regular season, on an offense that checked in 16th in EPA per play.
The Broncos offense consists largely of runs and short passes. (Nix's 7.3-yard average depth of throw ranks 26th out of 36 qualifying quarterbacks, via Tru Media.) They'll sprinkle in gadget plays and the occasional deep shot, but the foundation is the underneath stuff.
It has worked well because opponents have played into what the Broncos want to do, to begin with. Denver has seen the NFL's eighth-highest rate of zone coverage, per Tru Media, and Nix has performed better against zone (71.9% completion rate, 6.9 yards per attempt) than against man (51.1%, 6.3 YPA). The Bills play a high rate of zone as well, utilizing it on 71.3% of opponent dropbacks. That could play into Denver's hands.
The Broncos also love throwing the ball to their running backs, which is something that Buffalo's defense encourages opponents to do: The Bills yielded the NFL's second-most receptions and receiving touchdowns and the most yards to enemy running backs this season. But they do that by design: Buffalo's defense is fast, physical and disciplined. Once you check down, these guys will rally to the ball and prevent additional yards. Denver lived on yards after catch this season, with Nix getting the fourth-highest share of his passing yardage via YAC. The Bills allowed only 5.2 yards after catch per reception, though, a mark that checked in just outside the top 10.
It'll be interesting to see how the Bills treat hybrid weapon Marvin Mims Jr. depending on where he lines up. He's been moving all over the formation over the second half of the season, and the Broncos have made a concerted effort to get him the ball whenever he's on the field. The Bills encouraging throws to him as if he were a running back may not be as wise. But if they treat him as a receiver when he's lined up in the backfield, it could mess with some of their matchups elsewhere.
On the outside, the matchup between Courtland Sutton and Christian Benford should be fantastic. Sutton is a physical specimen whose size plays up due to his skill set. Benford just had his best season, though, and is well equipped to battle with Sutton due to his length and strength.
In the run game, Denver has been very inconsistent. None of Javonte Williams, Jaleel McLaughlin or Audric Estime has really grabbed hold of the primary backfield role, and the ways they've been utilized have often flip-flopped throughout the season. It's tough to know what to expect when the Broncos run it, except little in the way of success because they haven't proven that they can find much to begin with.
When the Bills have the ball
Josh Allen is as singular a threat as there is in the NFL. He may or may not win the league's MVP award, but there is nobody else that brings his combination of arm talent and power rushing ability. There are some who have one or the other, but not both. (Lamar Jackson is a different type of runner, obviously.) He is capable of doing things that make absolutely no sense at any and all times, and he is liable to pull something magical out of his bag of tricks when it looks like the play is all but over.
The Broncos might be ill equipped to deal with this version of Buffalo's offense, even though they have a very good defense. They have been a slot funnel pass defense, allowing the league's sixth-most receptions to players lined up on the inside. That's where Khalil Shakir does his damage, and he's Allen's top passing game target.
The Bills don't really present a great shadow matchup for Defensive Player of the Year favorite Patrick Surtain II, what with Amari Cooper having missed a bunch of time and playing only sparingly when active, and guys like Keon Coleman and Mack Hollins operating as ancillary pieces rather than key contributors. Surtain is likely to play a side of the field instead of shadowing, then, but it would be surprising to see him follow Shakir to the slot all game given that he's aligned there for only 77 snaps all season, and never more than 19 in a given game.
Buffalo's lack of a true No. 1 receiving threat hasn't held the offense back throughout the season, with Allen playing a point-guard style of quarterback and using his legs as his own checkdown. The Broncos have struggled against quarterback runs this season, allowing 8.0 yards per scramble, via Tru Media. Allen is also obviously a threat in short yardage, where he's often used as a battering ram on sweeps, counters and QB sneaks. Because of his size, he is nigh impossible to stop on those types of plays.
The Broncos' best bet for success here might be to turn the Bills into a one-dimensional unit by closing off the run game. They're well equipped in that department, having allowed the third-fewest yards before contact per attempt in the NFL. If James Cook and Co. can't get going, though, that just puts more of the game on Allen's shoulders, and that's not necessarily ideal for Denver, either.
Prediction
Playing at home against a rookie quarterback, we have to roll with the Bills. The Broncos do have some matchup advantages in a few places, but the combination of Allen and McDermott's defense should prove too much for them to overcome. Pick: Bills 23, Broncos 14
