In the Week 6 edition of "Thursday Night Football," the Denver Broncos play host to the Seattle Seahawks.
The Broncos are coming off their third win in the last four games, though it required a late, game-winning drive against the decrepit division rival Los Angeles Chargers. The return of Sean Payton as play-caller didn't exactly result in an explosive or efficient offense, but the Broncos did just enough to hold off L.A. and climb back over .500.
The Seahawks, meanwhile, dropped to 3-2 after falling to their own division rivals in the San Francisco 49ers. The Niners moved the ball quite well against the vaunted Seattle defense, and turnovers in their own territory haunted the Seahawks and ultimately cost them the game.
Will the Seahawks bounce back, or will the Broncos capture their second consecutive victory? We'll find out soon enough. Before we break down the matchup, here's a look at how you can watch the game.
Where to watch Broncos vs. Seahawks live
- Date: Thursday, Oct. 15 | Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
- Location: Empower Field at Mile High (Denver)
- Streaming: Amazon Prime
- Follow: CBS Sports App
- Odds: Seahawks -2.5, O/U 40.5 via DraftKings Sportsbook
When the Seahawks have the ball
Let's start here: the Seahawks cannot run the ball at all. They couldn't run the ball when rookie running back Jadarian Price was healthy earlier in the season, and they haven't been able to run the ball since he's been out. The trio of Price, Emanuel Wilson and George Holani has combined for just 447 yards on 127 carries — an average of just 3.5 per tote.
The Seahawks do not get much push up front, as their backs average a mere 0.69 yards before contact per carry, a figure that ranks fourth-worst in the NFL, according to Tru Media. Their 2.83 yards after contact per carry is more respectable, ranking 14th league-wide.
The Broncos will have to be careful there. They've allowed the third-fewest rushing yards before contact per carry in the league so far (0.59), but the most rushing yards after contact (3.92), thanks to a sky-high avoided tackle rate by enemy backs (30.1%). Much of that production came from Kenneth Walker III in the season opener, but even in Weeks 2 through 5, the Broncos rank in the bottom third of the league in both yards after contact per attempt and broken tackle rate.
Wilson is likely to be the primary runner once again while Price and Zach Charbonnet remain sidelined. The Broncos will have to get him on the ground on the first try, limiting the yards he can gain after contact, because the Seahawks just don't create much for him in the first place. He scarcely gets more than is blocked without breaking through tackles.
In the passing game, Sam Darnold has struggled to replicate last year's results — especially over the last two weeks. In games against the Chargers and 49ers, Darnold went just 31-of-51 for 363 yards, three touchdowns and three interceptions. After leading the league in turnovers last season, Darnold has already been picked off five times in his three full appearances this season, while his yards per attempt average is down from 8.5 to just 7.7. His completion rate is down over 3 percentage points as well.
Denver's pass defense has been largely good so far this year, with the Broncos ranking fifth in opponents' EPA per dropback, according to Tru Media. The Broncos just held the Chargers to 82 net passing yards last week, which plays a huge role in that figure, but they've also allowed only one team (Rams) to top 218 net passing yards in any game so far. (The Chiefs didn't have to throw the ball very much in Week 1, though, because they did whatever they wanted on the ground.)
The Broncos won't have Patrick Surtain II or Talanoa Hufanga here, and Riley Moss is listed as questionable — all of which is a significant issue when you're going up against Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who leads the NFL in both receiving yards and receiving touchdowns. Jahdae Barron and Kris Abrams-Draine figure to see increased roles due to the cornerback injuries, while Devon Key will play more in the wake of Hufanga's absence. They'll all have their work cut out for them against JSN. The Seahawks really don't throw the ball to anyone else all that often.
When the Broncos have the ball
Denver might have gotten a win last week, but Sean Payton's return as play-caller didn't have much to do with it. The Broncos entered the game against the Chargers averaging a miserable 4.9 yards per play, then averaged a mere 3.9 per play in the win over Los Angeles.
Bo Nix totaled just 123 yards on his 27 pass attempts, J.K. Dobbins ran for only 68 yards on his 18 carries, Jaylen Waddle caught just two of five balls thrown his way for just 19 yards... nothing went well offensively. And nothing has gone right pretty much all year, with the exception of the second halves of the Broncos' wins over the Jaguars and Rams in Weeks 2 and 3. Two good halves in five weeks isn't much to write home about, even if those halves helped the Broncos steal a pair of wins and arrive at 3-2.
Nix is essentially refusing to push the ball down the field so far this season. His average air yards per attempt in each of his first two years of his career was 7.3, according to Tru Media, but that figure has dropped all the way to 5.2 this year. He threw deep on 13.1% of his passes as a rookie and 11.8% of them last year, but he's done so on only 7.4% of his attempts this season.
Nix also isn't running anymore. He scrambled 27.3% of the time when pressured during his rookie season and 16.1% of the time last season. That number is all the way down to 5.6% so far this year, meaning he's scrambled only four times in five games. All of this, combined with his insistence on checking down repeatedly, has made the pass offense feel neutered to date.
Meanwhile, the Broncos also can't run the ball. Dobbins looks like he's running with a piano on his back, slogging his way to 3.6 yards per carry. RJ Harvey barely gets opportunities, but he hasn't done any better at only 3.7 yards per carry. Harvey is at least productive in the short passing game, but the Broncos de-emphasized that last week under Payton in favor of more Dobbins runs that went nowhere.
The Seahawks have largely been their usual selves defensively through the first five weeks of the season. They've arrived at their two losses largely by virtue of their offense repeatedly turning the ball over against the Commanders (three times) and 49ers (four, including a fumble that resulted in a touchdown). Seattle has held opponents to the fewest passing yards in the league and the fewest net yards per attempt, and it has limited running games to the eighth-fewest yards per attempt as well. It's hard to see the Broncos snapping out of their funk against this unit.
Prediction
Sean Payton's return to calling plays may have let the Broncos come away with a win, but it did not result in their offense looking competent. They averaged just 3.9 yards per play against what had previously been a very bad Chargers defense. I cannot rightly expect the Broncos to get anything going against this hellacious Seattle defense. It's not like the Broncos are going to do what the 49ers did. Denver is also still banged up defensively and likely won't have Surtain here, which is obviously a problem against JSN.
Pick: Seahawks 24, Broncos 16
