FRISCO, Texas -- When the Dallas Cowboys re-signed three-time Pro Bowl quarterback Dak Prescott to a four-year, $240 million contract extension hours before the start of the 2024 season that made him the NFL's highest-paid player ($60 million average per year salary), expectations were large.
Prescott is coming off of a 2023 in which he earned 2023 Second-Team All-Pro honors after becoming the first Cowboys quarterback to lead the NFL outright in touchdown passes with 36. Now, he has to do even more with No. 2 wide receiver Brandin Cooks (knee), three-time All-Pro edge rusher Micah Parsons (high ankle sprain) and four-time Pro Bowl edge rusher DeMarcus Lawrence (Lisfranc, mid-foot sprain) all sidelined for Dallas' "Sunday Night Football" showdown at the 3-1 Pittsburgh Steelers.
The 2023 Second-Team All-Pro quarterback hasn't picked up where he left in 2023 in terms of his top-five standing among the rest of his peers, but plenty of the reason for that can be attributed to his wilting offensive ecosystem.
Dak Prescott last two seasons, NFL ranks
| 2023 | 2024 | |
|---|---|---|
Completion Pct | 69.5% (2nd) | 64.6% (23rd) |
| Pass Yards | 4,516 (3rd) | 1,072 (5th) |
Pass Yards/Att | 7.7 (6th) | 7.6 (19th) |
Pass TD | 36 (1st) | 6 (T-6th) |
TD-INT | 36-9 (2nd) | 6-2 (11th) |
Passer Rating | 105.9 (2nd) | 93.6 (16th) |
| Expected Points Added/Play | 0.18 (2nd) | -0.04 (19th) |
Dallas' 2024 offense has taken a massive step backward in its creativity. Head coach Mike McCarthy's offense went from using motion at a slightly above league average rate in 2023 (49.2% of offensive plays, 15th in the NFL) to ranking near the bottom of the league in motion usage this season (40.5%, 27th in the NFL). The Cowboys utilized play-action on 27.7% of Prescott's dropbacks a year ago, the highest rate of his career in a season that was the most efficient (105.9 passer rating) of his now-nine-year career.
This season, the Cowboys have used play-action on 19% of Prescott's dropbacks, the lowest rate of his entire career. Dallas' run game has also fallen off a cliff. Led by Pro Bowler Tony Pollard a season ago, Dallas averaged 112.9 rushing yards per game, a slightly above average 14th in the NFL. The 2024 Cowboys are the worst rushing offense in football through four games this season, averaging an NFL-low 75.3 rushing yards per game with the running back committee of undrafted veteran Rico Dowdle, late career Ezekiel Elliott and 2023 sixth-round pick Deuce Vaughn.
That's why it makes all the sense in the world for Prescott to have the highest tight window throw rate (27.5%, per the NFL's Next Gen Stats) in the entire NFL in 2024 and for his pass-catchers to average the second-lowest average yards of separation per target in the league, per the NFL's Next Gen Stats, (2.8). The Cowboys offense doesn't have the aforementioned easy buttons at nearly the same quarterback-friendly rate it did a year ago. Prescott doesn't feel like he has to be Superman, but the current reality through the first quarter of the 2024 season is that in order for them to win ballgames, he has to be just that.
"I don't break the huddle and say, 'I've got to go be Superman here,'" Prescott said Thursday. "But I've been able to break some tackles. I've been able to do some things that have helped people out: use my feet more, make the throws. So I don't think it's anything outside of my game that I got to try to do."
Cowboys offense last two seasons, NFL ranks
| 2023 | 2024 | |
|---|---|---|
| PPG | 29.9 (1st) | 24.3 (12th) |
| Offensive Snaps/Game | 66.0 (3rd) | 61.8 (14th) |
| Third Down Pct | 48.3% (2nd) | 40% (T-15th) |
Play Action Per Dropback Pct | 27.7% (5th) | 19% (27th) |
Motion Pct | 49.2% (15th) | 40.5% (27th) |
Screen Pct | 5.7% (27th) | 3.6% (30th) |
| Dak Prescott's Tight Window Throw Rate* | 18.3% (29th) | 27.5% (Worst) |
| Dak Prescott's Average Yards of Target Separation* | 3.1 (31st) | 2.8 (Second-worst) |
Rush YPG | 112.9 (14th) | 75.3 (Worst) |
Rush Yards/Carry | 4.1 (20th) | 3.5 (30th) |
* Per NFL Pro/NFL's Next Gen Stats
** Out of 33 qualified QBs in 2024 for Prescott's advanced metrics
*** Out of 32 qualified QBs in 2023 for Prescott's advanced metrics
Why this is happening and why it matters
How important are motion usage and by extension play-action? Incredibly crucial because both force a defense to freeze instead of simply charging downhill full steam ahead.
"The more speed that happens pre-snap on the offensive side of the ball, the more stress it puts on a defense," retired five-time first-team All-Pro linebacker and 2013 NFL NFL Defensive Player of the Year Luke Kuechly said on the "Move The Sticks" podcast on Wednesday. ... "It [motion] makes playing the run game really hard because you can't get downhill. All your movement as a [line]backer is lateral. Stress on the defense is caused by pre-snap motion and the speed at which they [offenses] do it."
McCarthy blamed his squad falling behind early in games, particularly, Week 2 game vs. the New Orleans Saints (lost 44-19) and Week 3 vs. the Baltimore Ravens (lost 28-25 after falling behind 28-6) for the lack of motion.
"You got to look at the situationals, particularly on offense," McCarthy said on Monday when asked about the team's low motion rate. ... "Some of our formation tendencies, you got to factor in I think we've been almost three quarters of two-minute [offense]. That skewed a little bit. But yes, as far as the motions, how much motion we want to do. CeeDee's utilization in motion ... clearly aware of the [tight] windows. ... Those things have all been identified. What you do inside the why is a big part of it. We are clearly aware of our numbers in those areas."
McCarthy also cited falling behind early and not being able to run the ball as reasons for low play-action utilization this season. However, studies have been done to indicate there isn't a correlation between running the football and success throwing on play-action. Offenses can thrive on play-action simply because it causes opposing defense to think for a split second or two longer, an eternity during a single play of NFL football. The head coach did say he hasn't been trimming play-action out of the game plan. Prescott backed McCarthy's school of thought in this area.
NFL No. 1 wide receivers have more confidence in their abilities than almost anyone in any other profession, and Lamb falls into that category. However, he also admitted his life could be easier with more motion and play-action incorporated into the offense.
"I'll be me regardless," Lamb said Thursday. "Motion, stationary, play-action, but you know eyes are always on me realistically. So just having more than one set of eyes on me, you got to get a bit tricky and move around. Can't just have them keeping a track as to where I am. Keeping them guessing. Keeping a defensive coordinator on his toes and having a defense try to find everywhere I'm at."
McCarthy holds steadfast to a philosophy from his late mentor Marty Schottenheimer, who gave him his NFL start as an offensive quality control coach in 1993 on his Kansas City Chiefs coaching staff: players over plays. Schottenheimer's 200-126-1 record in 21 seasons gives him the eighth-most wins as a head coach in NFL history.
"So much in our world is made about scheme addition," McCarthy said. "The access and information has created more dialogue and opinion. It's awesome. But at the end of the day, it's still about players. Marty [Schotteheimer] used to say it all the time: 'times of crisis, think of players, not plays'. I think that's something that has always held true with me."
That adage holds up today in many scenarios, but even the best players can be taken to new heights with help from the scheme they are running. Fortunately for Dallas, Prescott put together his best performance of the season his last time out in Dallas' 20-15 Week 4 road win on "Thursday Night Football" against the New York Giants. He completed 22 of his 27 passes (81.5%) for 221 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions for 125.5 passer rating. That outing tied his predecessor Tony Romo for the most games (six) with at least an 80% completion percentage and a 120.0 passer rating in Cowboys history. That included a big-play to his fellow highly-paid running mate in wide receiver CeeDee Lamb for a 55-yard touchdown, helping Lamb make good on his promise that he would get back on track.
Whether or not McCarthy makes any wholesale schematic changes this season, it's time for the quarterback to put on his cape. It's the only recourse Prescott has available.
"[A 2-2 record] is not acceptable for us," Prescott said. "It's about finding a way to win, starting this Sunday, and moving forward one game at a time. ... I'm playing solid football. I think if you broke down all four games, there's a play or two, a couple plays within that I want back, that I could do this or I could do that. It's a little bit of guarding against trying to do [too much], but I can tell you I'm on the brink of it. I feel like I'm stepping into that. So, in these first four games, I'll say solid, good ball, but I can play better. But, I'm always going to tell you that. I can throw for 500 [yards] with no incompletions, and I'm going to tell you I can play better. So yeah, it's damn sure coming."