Some of the best pure talent in this draft comes with a catch.
As character issues and off-field problems have become such prominent issues and garner the wrong kind of attention beyond the NFL in a post Ray Rice/Adrian Peterson/Aaron Hernandez/Greg Hardy landscape, this draft serves as another sociological experiment. It is something of a referendum on how much these concerns really matter -- let's not pretend talent and immense promise don't still pretty much trump all in many situations.
If not for varied missteps and, in some cases, much more serious past allegations and infractions, the top 10 of this draft might have looked quite different than it will come Thursday. Randy Gregory is, in the eyes of many evaluators I spoke to, the best pass rusher in the draft. Dorial Green-Beckham, from a metrics and athletics perspective, draws comparisons to Randy Moss -- one of the most dynamic receivers in NFL history. Marcus Peters may be the best cover corner in the draft.
None will go as high as they would have without their red flags (again, as varied as they are or are perceived to be). The question remains, how high do they still end up being selected, and by whom? And I'll attempt to get to the bottom of that shortly. But first, I feel compelled to draw a few distinctions here, as far too often many of these kids with very different issues are lumped together.
Gregory's failed drug test for pot at the combine clearly won't help him, and there are concerns about his decision making and overall mentality. The fact he smokes pot, really, isn't something most NFL teams are sweating. Newsflash: A ton of college kids use it, to say nothing of society as a whole. And it's growing legality has been noted in front offices around the league. Most teams really don't care that much. No one wants a top player suspended for failing drug tests. But this new collective bargaining agreement protects teams so heavily from a cash standpoint -- players face paying back bonuses and making a fraction of what entry-level players used to earn -- it mitigates the gamble considerably.
The fact Gregory would get busted at a time he knew he would get tested is, of course, not a good look. But I have yet to hear any team posit that Gregory is a "bad kid" or a potential locker room cancer or anything of the sort. He isn't looked at as someone who could display violent tendencies around the team, or in his private life; he's not seen as a potential nefarious agent who might poison others with words and actions. Nothing of the sort. I still see him going in the first round for sure, quite possibly in the top 16 picks.
Far too often he's lumped in with others, like Green-Beckham and Peters, who carry baggage that teams find speak more directly to potential character flaws. Green-Beckham faced allegations that he pushed a woman down some stairs and twice had drug-related arrests, including one for possession of a controlled substance with intent to distribute that was later dropped. At a time when freak of nature, 6-foot-6 receivers are coddled and fawned over, he did enough to be dismissed by Missouri and enters the draft after not playing college football in 2014.
Combine all that with raw route running and some questions about his hands, it likely keeps him out of the first round.
Despite his considerable athletic prowess, Peters did enough for the University of Washington to tell him to go away. There are persistent rumblings in the scouting community about a physical encounter between him and a member of the coaching staff. He's seen by some as uncoachable, is off at least some draft boards and some teams have concerns about the activities of some of his associates. Saying all of that, he's a potential true No. 1 cover corner at a time when footballs are flung at a record rate across the league, and I see him going in the bottom third of the first round.
So, who might be willing to invite some of these individuals into their programs, perhaps quite early in the draft this weekend? Certain teams stick out, and it just well may end up that one of these franchises ends up with some of these players, or others, like Michigan defensive end Frank Clark, dismissed from his team after domestic violence charges but who could still go in the second round based on what I've heard.
Some teams have a longer track record of taking a shot on players others might let pass. I don't anticipate that changes drastically despite the scope of what a disastrous 2014 the NFL endured in the aftermath of the domestic violence and child abuse instances. Here's a look at how some of them could view this draft:
St. Louis Rams: Jeff Fisher has long been willing to roll the dice on troubled kids. It's continued in recent years with the Rams and while none of these kids would be in play with the 10th overall pick, I suspect the top of the second round could be very interesting. They still long for playmakers on offense and Green-Beckham played just down the road at Missouri.
New Orleans Saints: Sean Payton is trying to win now and quickly turn around a horrific defense. He is desperate for individuals naturally wired to get to the quarterback and picking Gregory at No. 13 wouldn't shock me at all. Payton has two first-round picks which could further spur gambling with one of them.
Cincinnati Bengals: No one believes in second chances more than owner Mike Brown, and this franchise has been willing to go that route for decades. Coach Marvin Lewis knows how to reach these kinds of kids and his recent work recently with Vontaze Burfict speaks to that (college off-field problems led to Burfict not being drafted). It's a cottage industry for this team and while the first round might not bear that out, other rounds could.
Dallas Cowboys: Jerry Jones will take risks that aren't even all that calculated. He just signed Greg Hardy well before the NFL had even handed down his latest punishment for what the league says was four instances of violence against a woman (it turned out to be a 10-game suspension). He was infatuated with drafting Johnny Manziel a year ago. Peters in particular could be a fit from among this group. And, frankly, with Hardy not a question, Gregory could as well. Jones isn't shy about going this route.
Indianapolis Colts: Indy has taken more than a few shots on guys with less-than-stellar reputations and just worked hard to land Duron Carter after his CFL career ended (the son of former Hall of Famer Cris Carter has a long and checkered history). Late in the first round, any three of these players could frankly maker some sense for them, though I suspect only Green-Beckham is still there when GM Ryan Grigson makes the selection.
New England Patriots: Bill Belichick loves to buy low and exact full value and few have had more success. He knows how to cater things slightly enough to some individuals, and guys like Moss -- who clashed with authority elsewhere -- meshed so well with him. Wasn't that long ago Belichick was taking a shot on Chad Ochocinco and Albert Haynesworth. Certainly, with Hernandez, a recent draft pick facing the possibility of multiple murder convictions, and with owner Bob Kraft speaking out brusquely about Rice's domestic abuse case, things may have changed somewhat. But I'd never discount the Patriots belief in their program and its ability to succeed with players others frankly just wouldn't even take on. Of course, at the right price.
Seattle Seahawks: GM John Schneider and coach Pete Carroll drafted Bruce Irvin high, they gave up a ton to get Percy Harvin in trade and they flirted big-time with the idea of signing Hardy. While they don't pick until the end of the second round as of now, Clark in particular would be a potential fit for them. Carroll knows how to handle these guys -- they've willingly repaid Marshawn Lynch several times despite him being difficult -- and they won't stop doing that now. Seems to be how they are wired.
Perhaps all of these players plummet. Perhaps the scales have truly swung and the times they are a changing. But I wouldn't bank on it. And I'd wager some of these teams continue to thrive despite those risks.