Dolphins fire Mike McDaniel, Wild Card Weekend is here -- and the Super Bowl race feels wide open

Welcome to the Thursday edition of the Pick Six newsletter!

I probably don't need to tell you this, but the playoffs start this weekend, and at some point, we will talk about something besides the playoffs in this newsletter -- but today is not that day. With just 48 hours to go until the NFL postseason kicks off, we'll be going all in on the playoffs. Not only will we be ranking every playoff quarterback, but we'll also be making some wild card picks and revealing one fatal flaw of each team.

Actually, we won't be going all playoffs, because we're going to open things up with the surprise firing of Mike McDaniel, whom the Dolphins let go on Thursday.

As always, here's your reminder to tell all your friends to sign up for the newsletter. Let's get to the rundown. 

1. Dolphins fire Mike McDaniel: John Harbaugh instantly seems like the frontrunner in Miami

Black Monday has officially turned into an entire week of darkness for head coaches around the NFL. For the most part, coaches usually get fired in the first 24 hours after the regular season ends, but this year, that timeline has been stretched out. We saw the Ravens fire John Harbaugh on Tuesday, and now, two days later, the Dolphins have canned Mike McDaniel.

Here are three quick things to know about McDaniel's time in Miami:

• He didn't win a playoff game. McDaniel had a winning record (35-33) during his four seasons as head coach, but he didn't win a single playoff game (0-2), something that's been a huge problem for the Dolphins. Miami hasn't won a playoff game since 2000, which is the longest active drought in the NFL.
• Dolphins got worse and couldn't beat good teams. McDaniel went 20-14 during his first two years on the job, including an 11-6 season in 2023. However, the Dolphins regressed after that with two straight losing seasons: Miami went from 8-9 in 2024 to 7-10 in 2025. One of the biggest issues for McDaniel is that the Dolphins couldn't beat good teams while he was there. During his four seasons, the Dolphins went 4-17 against teams that finished above .500. On the other hand, he went 31-16 against teams that finished .500 or worse.
• Why Stephen Ross made the decision. The Dolphins owner released a statement on Thursday explaining why he decided to dump McDaniel. "After careful evaluation and extensive discussions since the season ended, I have made the decision that our organization is in need of comprehensive change. I informed Mike McDaniel this morning that he has been relieved of his duties as head coach."

Ross' decision is all about making a "comprehensive change." With McDaniel out, the one name that instantly jumps to the top of the candidate list is John Harbaugh. There are two big reasons why it wouldn't be surprising to see the Dolphins hire Harbaugh.

• The Dolphins waited until Thursday to fire McDaniel. The move could have been made on Monday or Tuesday, but instead, they waited until Thursday, which is something that almost never happens in the NFL. Ross didn't make the decision to dump McDaniel until after Harbaugh became available, which doesn't feel like a coincidence.
• The Dolphins have a general manager candidate with ties to Harbaugh. Chargers assistant general manager Chad Alexander is one of four finalists for the open GM job in Miami. This is interesting for multiple reasons. For one, Alexander wasn't even on the team's radar until Tuesday night, when the Dolphins requested to interview him in a move that came just hours after Harbaugh was fired. That's notable because Alexander spent 20 seasons working for the Ravens, including 11 that came while Harbaugh was in Baltimore (they overlapped from 2008 through 2018). Also, Alexander was named a finalist without even doing a first interview.

The firing of McDaniel means a full 25% of the NFL now has a coaching vacancy, with eight of the league's 32 teams looking for a new head coach.

In other coaching news, the Buccaneers fired offensive coordinator Josh Grizzard on Thursday. Grizzard took over the OC job last January after Liam Coen left for Jacksonville. Lions offensive coordinator John Morton was also fired after just one season on the job. He took over as Detroit's OC after Ben Johnson left for Chicago.

2. Ranking the NFL playoff quarterbacks from first to worst

When you're in the playoffs, you have a much better chance of winning the Super Bowl if you have a great quarterback on your team, which might explain why Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs have been to five of the past six Super Bowls. With that in mind, Garrett Podell decided to rank every single starting quarterback in the playoffs, and with no Mahomes in the postseason, it's actually an interesting ranking.

Let's check out the top five quarterbacks on Podell's list: 

1. Rams QB Matthew Stafford. "He just put the finishing touches on the fourth season in NFL history in which a quarterback threw for 45-plus passing touchdowns (46) and fewer than 10 interceptions (eight). The other three such seasons -- Tom Brady in 2007, Aaron Rodgers in 2011 and Aaron Rodgers in 2020 -- all resulted in NFL MVP honors. Stafford finished the regular season with multiple touchdown passes in 11 straight games, the longest such streak in Rams history."

2. Patriots QB Drake Maye. "Maye is the first player to lead the NFL in completion percentage (72%), yards per pass attempt (8.9) and passer rating (113.5) since Tony Romo in 2014. ... The Patriots finished as the NFL's No. 2 scoring offense (28.8 points per game) and ended the season as the AFC's No. 2 seed and AFC East champion."

3. Bills QB Josh Allen. "Allen enters this postseason as the NFL's all-time playoff leader in total yards per game (311.0) and total touchdowns per game (2.5). However, with the Bills in the field as the No. 6 seed, he'll need to do what he's never done in the playoffs before: win on the road. The Bills are 0-4 in Allen's playoff road starts, and Buffalo as a franchise is on an eight-game playoff losing streak on the road."

4. Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence. "Lawrence's 38 total touchdowns this season are the third-most in the league behind only 2024 NFL MVP Josh Allen (39) and Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford (46). He'll have a tall task ahead of him against the Buffalo Bills' No. 1-ranked pass defense that is surrendering just 156.9 passing yards per game, but the bracket could open up nicely for Lawrence and the Jaguars in the coming rounds."

5. Packers QB Jordan Love. "Love enters the playoffs healthy after playing top-five caliber football this season. He ranks sixth in the NFL in touchdown-to-interception ratio (23-6), sixth in passer rating (101.2), fourth in expected points added (EPA) per play (0.20) and second in EPA per dropback (0.22)."

If you want to check out Podell's full ranking of all 14 playoff quarterbacks, you can do that here. 

3. NFL wild card picks: Jaguars and Chargers pull off upsets

It's officially time for your favorite part of the Thursday newsletter, which is where I round up a few NFL writers and we all make some picks. Just in case you've forgotten, our writers are: Pete Prisco, Jordan Dajani, Tyler Sullivan and myself. Prisco ended up winning the regular-season picks title with a record of 176-95-1. They say that wisdom comes with age, which explains why Prisco won, because he is four times older than the rest of us combined.

Anyway, you probably know how our predictions work by now: I'll give you one pick from each writer and then link you to the rest of their picks. That way, if you like their pick, you can click over and check out all of their wild card predictions.

• Pete Prisco -- Jaguars (+1.5) 32-28 over Bills. "This young Jaguars team is one of the bigger surprises in the league, but they do a lot of things well. They finished as the top run defense and no back ran for over 75 yards against them during the season. That will be big against James Cook, who led the league in rushing. If they can stop Cook, that will put a lot on Josh Allen, who is more than capable. On the other side, the Bills have had defensive issues, while the Jaguars have played well on offense with Trevor Lawrence. Look for that to continue. This will be fun to watch as both quarterbacks light it up with Lawrence winning it late." Prisco's full picks for Wild Card Weekend are here. 
• Tyler Sullivan -- Eagles (-3.5) 24-20 over 49ers. "The Niners are banged up, and I still have my questions about Philadelphia's offense truly finding its rhythm. One thing that I do trust is the Eagles defense making life difficult for Brock Purdy. Even if the Niners QB has his left tackle Trent Williams (hamstring) and top wideout Ricky Pearsall (knee) for this game, neither will be 100%. As we saw in the Week 18 matchup against Seattle, San Francisco's offense may be a little bit of a house of cards due to injury." You can find Sullivan's full wild card picks here. 
• Jordan Dajani -- Bears (+1.5) 26-20 over Packers. "Jordan Love is going to return to the lineup for the first time since suffering his concussion in Week 16. How is he going to look? Love has made three playoff starts in his career. One was incredible (at Cowboys), one was OK (at 49ers), and one was a disaster (at Eagles). I'm going to take the Bears in this matchup because they are at home and because the Packers have lost four straight games." Dajani's full slate of picks will be released Friday, but you can get a preview here. 
• John Breech -- Chargers (+3.5) 27-24 over Patriots. "We can argue about whether strength of schedule matters in the MVP debate, but I do think it matters here. The Patriots just haven't really been tested after playing the weakest schedule in the NFL this year. Yes, they went 14-3, but let's break that down a little more: They went 13-1 against teams that finished below .500 and 1-2 against teams that finished above .500. The Chargers finished above .500." You can find the rest of my wild card picks here. 

For more Wild Card Weekend picks, you can check out our CBSSports.com picks page. 

4. Top playoff coaching staffs: 49ers and Rams are in a class of their own

When it comes to the NFL playoffs, it's not surprising to see a game where the two teams on the field are so evenly matched that the difference comes down to who has the better coaching staff on the sideline. With that in mind, CBS Sports NFL writer Jared Dubin decided to rank the coaching staffs of every playoff team. 

Dubin came up with four tiers and then ranked the teams accordingly. We're only going to check out his top two tiers, so let's do it. 

TIER 1

• Rams: HC Sean McVay, OC Mike LaFleur, DC Chris Shula
• 49ers: HC Kyle Shanahan, OC Klay Kubiak, DC Robert Saleh

Tier 1 explanation: "Shanahan and McVay are probably the NFL's two premier offensive minds at the moment. They each call the plays for their team and have familiar offensive coordinators to support them. Klay Kubiak is young, but his father Kliff and Kyle's father Mike ran this style of offense together for years and Klay himself has been in San Francisco since 2021. LaFleur is in his second stint with the Rams and has been working for either Shanahan or McVay for almost his entire professional coaching career."

TIER 2

• Broncos: HC Sean Payton, OC Joe Lombardi, DC Vance Joseph
• Chargers: HC Jim Harbaugh, OC Greg Roman, DC Jesse Minter
• Packers: HC Matt LaFleur, OC Adam Stenavich, DC Jeff Hafley
• Patriots: HC Mike Vrabel, OC Josh McDaniels, DC Terrell Williams
• Seahawks: HC Mike Macdonald, OC Klint Kubiak, DC Aden Durde

Tier 2 explanation: "Splitting hairs between this entire group was really, really difficult. You could put them in pretty much any order and the tier would still make perfect sense. I don't have strong preferences between them and mostly ranked them by the quality of the coaching job I thought they did in this specific season. ... One could argue that Macdonald (or Vrabel, or Johnson, or Coen, or Payton, or any number of other coaches) should be the Coach of the Year this season."

Dubin ranked all 14 playoff coaching staffs, and if you want to see where everyone ended up, be sure to check out his full story here. 

5. Fatal flaws for the playoffs: The one thing that could take down each team

The NFL playoffs are wide open this year, and for the first time in a while, it feels like almost any team could end up winning the Super Bowl. (Well, except for the Panthers. They're probably not going to win it.) One reason the playoff field feels so wide open is because all 14 teams have at least one weakness that could cause their downfall. 

Zach Pereles came up with one fatal flaw for each playoff team, and we're going to check out four of the teams on his list: 

• Bills: Stopping the run. "Only one team ever -- the 2006 Colts -- allowed more than 5 yards per rush and won the Super Bowl. The Bills were at 5.1. Plus, when it breaks, it breaks completely: Buffalo allowed eight touchdown runs of 30-plus yards, the most in a season in NFL history."
• Broncos: Bo Nix's consistency. "There are also times when he is a little too risky or inaccurate downfield, leading to missed opportunities and turnovers. Then there are other times when he's too risk-averse. Finding that happy medium can be a challenge. Nix was 25th in off-target rate and 28th in yards per attempt. He threw 11 interceptions, and he had seven more dropped, tied for second-most in the NFL. Nix often does a great job keeping the Broncos on track, and his mobility is underrated, but he also plays with fire more than Sean Payton would like."
• Seahawks: Turnovers. "The Seahawks had the second-most turnovers this year with 28, and 20 of those turnovers were from Sam Darnold (14 interceptions, six fumbles lost). Darnold has always been a bit loose with the ball -- sometimes trying to make high-difficulty throws, other times just making the wrong throw or being fooled -- but another emerging worry is sacks." NOTE: It's almost unheard of for a QB to turn the ball over 20 times and still win a Super Bowl. Over the past 30 years, it's only happened three times and two of those were by Eli Manning. 
• Rams: Pass defense. "The Rams have the NFL's cheapest defense, and it especially shows up in the secondary. The pass rush is cheap because of a lot of promising youngsters still on rookie deals. The secondary hasn't seen that sort of investment. It's a group of castoffs and veterans on relatively small deals. ... When it comes down to it, a standout wide receiver -- especially bigger ones -- can simply win his one-on-one matchup. Potential playoff opponents Tetairoa McMillan, A.J. Brown and Jaxon Smith-Njigba have all had big days against Los Angeles."

If you want to see the biggest weakness for the 10 other teams, be sure to check out Pereles' full story here. 

6. Super Bowl survivor: One team that meets all the criteria to win the big game

Now that we know each team's fatal flaw, it's time to decide who's going to win the Super Bowl. As I've already mentioned, this year is as wide open as any season in NFL history, so it feels like anyone could take home the Lombardi Trophy. To figure out who's going to win, CBS Sports lead NFL researcher Doug Clawson took a look at five trends that most Super Bowl winners have in common and then applied those trends to this year's playoff field, and that left us with one team standing.

Let's check out the five trends:

TREND: Must be elite on one side of the ball. The Super Bowl winner must rank in the top seven on either offense or defense. This has applied to 56 of the 59 Super Bowl winners in NFL history.
Eliminated teams: Bears, 49ers, Steelers, Packers, Chargers, Panthers. And there you go -- our first trend eliminated nearly half the playoff field.

TREND: Must make critical stops. If you can't stop your opponent on third down, you're not going to win. None of the past 18 champions have ranked in the bottom 10 of opponent third-down conversion rate.
Eliminated teams: Bills. Buffalo's opponents are converting on third down 41.4% of the time, which is the ninth-worst number in the NFL. The Seahawks and Broncos rank one and two in this stat at 32.1% and 33.8%.

TREND: Strong in the trenches. Since Super Bowl 36, 21 of the last 23 champions have had a positive sack differential.
Eliminated teams: Patriots and Jaguars. The Patriots surrendered 48 sacks this year but only recorded 35 on defense for a minus-13 sack differential. As for the Jags, their defense had just 32 sacks on the season while the offense gave up 41 for a minus-9 sack differential.

TREND: Clutch kicks. Only one of the last 25 Super Bowl champions ranked in the bottom five in the NFL in field goal percentage (the 2022 Chiefs).
Eliminated teams: Eagles and Rams. The Rams had one of the lowest field goal percentages in the NFL, but they made a change at kicker to Harrison Mevis in November, and he's hit 92.3% of his kicks since taking over the job. As for the Eagles, Jake Elliott hit just 74.1% of his field goals this year, but he has a 96.3% accuracy rate in the playoffs in his career, so it will be interesting to see if he can bounce back in the postseason.

TREND: Turnover battle. If you turn the ball over a lot or don't force turnovers, you're not going to win it all. Only two of the past 41 Super Bowl champions ranked in the bottom five in the NFL in either giveaways or takeaways (the 2015 Broncos and 2023 Chiefs).
Eliminated teams: Broncos and Seahawks. As good as Denver's defense was in 2025, the Broncos had just 14 takeaways, which was tied for the fourth-lowest total in the NFL. On the Seahawks' end, they had 28 turnovers, which was the second-most in the league behind only a Minnesota team that had 30.

THE ONE TEAM LEFT: Houston. That's right -- if all these trends hold, then the Texans will win their first Super Bowl ever. However, before that happens, the Texans will have to do two things. They'll have to win a road playoff game for the first time in franchise history (0-6), and they'll have to win a game in the divisional round for the first time in franchise history (0-6).

Clawson has a full breakdown of all of these trends, and if you want to check that out, you can see his story here.