Welcome to the Friday edition of the Pick Six newsletter!
The second half of the NFL season kicked off with a thriller in Baltimore on Thursday night. Well, it was thrilling for Ravens fans, but it wasn't so thrilling for Bengals fans, who had to watch their team choke away another game to Baltimore. Back in Week 5, the Bengals blew a 10-point lead in the final six minutes of the fourth quarter in a 41-38 overtime loss. This time around, they blew a 14-point lead in the second half of a 35-34 loss.
The Bengals' season is now on life support and if they lose again this month, it might be time to pull the plug.
We'll be handing out grades from the Ravens' win, plus we'll be taking a look at who's a contender and who's a pretender as we head into the second half of the season.
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1. Ravens win thriller over Bengals: Grades and notes for 'Thursday Night Football'
It was a wild Thursday night in Baltimore. The Ravens outlasted the Bengals in a 35-34 win that wasn't sealed until Joe Burrow threw an incompletion on a two-point conversion with 38 seconds left and it was an two-point conversion that came with a lot of controversy, which we'll be covering today.
Here are our grades from the game:
BENGALS GRADE: B-
It's been the story of the Bengals' season so far: The offense comes up big, but the defense lets them down. The Bengals blew a 21-7 lead in the second half and it mostly happened because the defense imploded during a fourth quarter where the Ravens totaled 231 yards and three touchdowns. It was a shocking performance when you consider the Bengals had held the Ravens to just 158 yards in the first three quarters combined. They also mostly shut down Derrick Henry, who rushed for just 68 yards. Despite the defensive breakdown in the fourth quarter, Joe Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase almost did enough to get the win. Burrow had another heroic performance (428 yards, four TD passes) and Chase had another monstrous night (11 catches for 264 yards and three touchdowns), but the offense did make one mistake and that was a third-quarter fumble by Chase Brown. Also, Burrow did make two highly questionable decisions when he decided to throw deep on two separate fourth-and-short plays in the game. The Ravens scored a TD after each failed fourth down and that ended up being a huge difference in the game. Bad decisions, poor tackling and untimely turnovers have plagued the Bengals this season and that continued on Thursday night.
Bengals notes
- Chasing history. With 264 yards and three touchdowns on Thursday night, Ja'Marr Chase will finish the season with 457 yards against Baltimore, which is an NFL record for the most yards against one team in a single season. Chase broke a record that had stood since 1963. Chase also became the first player in NFL history to record two games in his career of at least 260 receiving yards.
- Bad luck Burrow. Joe Burrow threw for 428 yards and four touchdowns on Thursday night, giving him 820 passing yards and nine touchdowns on the season against Baltimore. With two losses to Baltimore, Burrow set the record for most TD passes against a team (9) while still getting swept. He also became just the second QB in NFL history to get swept by an opponent after throwing for at least 750 yards and at least eight touchdowns. The only other QB to go through this was Dan Marino, who got swept by the Jets with some huge numbers in 1988. Burrow also became just the sixth player in NFL history to throw for 400 yards or more with at least four touchdowns and zero turnovers in a loss. The Bengals lost this game despite leading by 14 points in the second half, which is notable, because Burrow had been 23-0 in his career in games where the Bengals led by 14 or more in the second half.
- Piling up the points not working for Bengals. NFL teams are a combined 40-4 this season when they score at least 33 points in a game. Here's how that breaks down (via The Athletic): The Bengals are 2-3 while the other 31 teams are 38-1.
RAVENS GRADE: B
The high-powered Ravens offense got shut down for the better part of three quarters, but then Lamar Jackson turned on the magic over the final 15 minutes of the game to will Baltimore to a win. Jackson came up clutch in the fourth quarter, throwing for 197 yards and three touchdowns, including a career long 84-yard TD to Tylan Wallace. With Derrick Henry being bottled up by the Bengals, it was on Jackson to carry the offense and he did exactly that. Defensively, the Ravens got torched by Joe Burrow, but they did come up with one huge play by forcing a fumble in the third quarter that changed the momentum of the game. The bottom line here is that when Jackson is playing at an MVP level, the Ravens are almost impossible to beat and he's playing at an MVP level.
Ravens notes
- Comeback kid. The Ravens trailed by 14 points in the second half, but Lamar Jackson still led them to the win, making it the second-largest comeback of his career. The only bigger comeback by Jackson came in 2021 when the Ravens beat the Colts in a game where they trailed by 19. Jackson's heroics included a wild scramble where he gained 10 yards on a play that looked like it was going to go for a 20-yard loss (You can see the play here).
- Ravens' run at rushing record comes to an end. Going into Thursday night, the Ravens had a streak of 42 straight games with at least 100 yards, which was one game short of tying the NFL record, but that streak ended and it ended in bizarre fashion. The Ravens actually had 100 yards for the night, but Lamar Jackson took a knee on the final play to put them at 99. You can read more about their streak here.
This game also had some controversy. After the Bengals scored a touchdown with 38 seconds left, they decided to go for 2 to take the lead. On the play, Burrow threw an incomplete pass to Tanner Hudson, but the Bengals probably should have gotten a do-over since there appeared to be at least two uncalled penalties. Amazon rules analyst Terry McAulay, who is a former NFL referee, said the Ravens should have been flagged for defensive holding and/or roughing the passer. You can read more about the controversy here.
Finally, you can check out our full takeaways from the game here.
2. Contenders and pretenders: Breaking down which teams are for real and which teams aren't
We had our midseason extravaganza in yesterday's newsletter, but we're not done. Since we're halfway through the season, we thought now would be a good time to take a look at the contenders and the pretenders around the league.
The names on the contenders list probably won't surprise you -- teams like the Chiefs, Lions and Bills all made the cut -- but you might be surprised by a few names on Jordan Dajani's pretenders list, so let's check those out.
PRETENDERS
- Packers (6-3). "Jordan Love is banged-up and throwing interceptions, and he's now 0-2 vs. divisional opponents. The Packers still have potential, but you can't objectively look at them right now and say, 'Yeah, that's a contender.'"
- Steelers (6-2). "Many are singing Mike Tomlin's praises for his QB decision, and while Russell Wilson has absolutely looked better than his Denver Broncos days, defeating the New York Jets and New York Giants at home in prime time with the backing of arguably the best defense in the NFL doesn't mean too much to me. The Steelers will make the playoffs, but I don't view them as legitimate Super Bowl contenders."
- Texans (6-3). "The Texans have lost two out of their last three after starting the year 5-1. C.J. Stroud has one touchdown over his last three games after scoring 10 in the first six contests, and may have a legitimate road problem. He's 10-2 in Houston, and 5-7 everywhere else. Stroud has also thrown 10 fewer touchdowns on the road, and is averaging almost 100 fewer passing yards per game away from Houston. Stefon Diggs is out for the year, Nico Collins is still out and the offensive line just allowed Stroud to be sacked eight times. There's reason to be concerned about Houston."
If you want to see the full list of contenders and pretenders, be sure to check out Jordan's story here.
3. Five teams currently out of the playoffs that could make a second-half push
The playoff field heading into Week 10 is not what the the playoff field is going to look like when the season ends. There's always a surprise team or two that gets hot down the stretch, so today, we decided to try and identify who that team might be.
With that in mind, Bryan DeArdo decided to rank the five teams that are out of the playoffs right now, but have the best chance of being in there by the time the season ends. Let's check out his top three:
1. Rams (4-4). "The Rams appear to be hitting their stride after a 1-4 start. They've won three straight games and are getting outstanding play from quarterback Matthew Stafford and running back Kyren Williams. A secret for the Rams' recent success has been the play of their defensive backs, led by Jaylen McCollough, Kamren Kinchens, Quentin Lake and Kamren Curl. Los Angeles should be even better moving forward with the return of wideouts Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua from injuries."
2. 49ers (4-4). "San Francisco is .500 despite dealing with a rash of injuries during the season's first half. One of those injured players, running back Christian McCaffrey, returned to practice this week and will make his season debut this weekend."
3. Buccaneers (4-5). "Tampa has lost three straight and is looking for answers. But the Bucs offense and light second-half schedule are two things that are still going for them" NOTE: The Buccaneers have the easiest remaining strength of schedule in the NFL.
If you want to see all the teams that made DeArdo's list, be sure to check out his full story here.
4. NFL Week 10 picks: Jets and Steelers both pull off upsets on the road
It's officially time for your favorite part of the Friday newsletter, which is where I round up five NFL writers and we all make some picks for the upcoming week. Just in case you've forgotten, our five writers are: Pete Prisco, Jason La Canfora, Jordan Dajani, Tyler Sullivan and myself. Apparently, we are absolutely average this year. After going 2-3 against the spread and 3-2 straight up in Week 9, we hit the halfway point of the season with a record of 22-23 ATS on the season with the picks that we've featured in this part of the newsletter (and 20-20 straight up).
We're turning into the Bengals: We had high expectations this year, but we've been totally average.
If you're new here, here's how things work: I'll give you one Week 10 pick from each writer and then direct you to the rest of their picks. That way, if you like their pick, you'll be able to click over and check out all of their Week 10 picks, but if you hate their pick, you can ignore the rest of their picks and move on with your life.
- Pete Prisco -- Jets (+1) 24-21 over Cardinals. From Prisco: "This is a long trip, but the Jets seem to have found something against the Texans. Aaron Rodgers and the offense showed some life. That will stay that way here as the Jets win a tough road game." For the rest of Prisco's Week 10 picks, be sure to click here.
- Tyler Sullivan -- Steelers (+3) 27-24 over Commanders. From Sullivan: "The Steelers have thrived this year in the second half of their games, where they've pulled away from opponents, owning a +76 point differential. Meanwhile, Washington ranks 21st in the league in second-half points allowed (12.7) this season. That, coupled with Pittsburgh owning a 4-0 SU and ATS record in their last four games post-bye, I have them pulling off the upset." For the rest of Sullivan's Week 10 picks, be sure to click here.
- Jason La Canfora -- Chargers (-7.5) to cover against Titans. From La Canfora: "All five Los Angeles wins have come by 7+ points, with four by double digits. The Titans have five losses by 7+ points. This has major blowout potential." You can check out the rest of JLC's best bets for Week 10 here.
- Jordan Dajani -- Lions (-3.5) 35-27 over Texans. From Dajani: "Nico Collins does have a chance to return to the lineup this week, but man, the Texans looked terrible vs. the Jets. The offensive line struggled, the secondary struggled, Stroud struggled. I'll ride with the 7-1 ATS team (Detroit) compared to the 3-6 ATS team." For the rest of Dajani's Week 10 best bets, be sure to click here.
- John Breech -- 49ers (-6) 38-24 over Buccaneers. Christian McCaffrey is expected to be playing on Sunday and with their star running back returning, I think the 49ers offense ends up having its biggest game of the season. For the rest of my Week 10 picks, be sure to click here.
For more Week 10 NFL picks, you can check out out our CBSSports.com picks hub here.
5. NFL bold predictions for Week 10: Patriots shock Bears
After giving you some bold predictions for Week 9 last Friday, Garrett Podell is back with five more for Week 10.
Let's take a look at two of his bold predictions for Sunday:
- 1. Patriots QB Drake Maye engineers upset over Bears. "The Patriots aren't the better team, but Maye's magic is going to overcome Caleb Williams' wizardry as the Bears are in the midst of trying to find themselves while Maye is letting it rip. Maye, with six passing touchdowns and 209 rushing yards yards in five career games, is the first rookie since the 1970 AFL/NFL merger with five or more passing touchdowns and 200 or more rushing yards over his first five games. "
- 2. Chiefs put up at least 30 points against the Broncos. "The Broncos having the NFL's No. 3 scoring defense, allowing just 17.9 points per game this season. ... but Patrick Mahomes and head coach Andy Reid will successfully identify a weak link and exploit it to score at least 30 points for only the second time this season."
Garrett made a total of five bold predictions for Week 10, and you check out all of them here.
6. Extra points: Christian McCaffrey set to return
It's been a busy 24 hours in the NFL, and since it's nearly impossible to keep track of everything that happened, I went ahead and put together a roundup for you.
- Christian McCaffrey expected to make season debut. It took 10 weeks, but Christian McCaffrey is finally expected to return to the field this week when the 49ers host the Buccaneers. Coach Kyle Shanahan all but confirmed that McCaffrey will play on Sunday. You can check out his full comments here.
- Ravens cut ties with former Pro Bowler. The Ravens made an interesting move just before Thursday's game: They cut Yannick Ngakoue. The former Pro Bowler had signed with the team in September and the Ravens are planning to bring him back to Baltimore on the practice squad if he clears waivers today. You can read more about the move here.
- Jets make kicking change. For the third week in a row, the Jets will have a new kicker on the field. Riley Patterson was the kicker in Week 9, but he was released on Friday with the team signing Anders Carlson. For Sunday's game in Arizona, the Jets will either start Carlson or Spencer Shrader, who are both on the practice squad.
- Five things to expect in the second half of the season If you want to know what the second half of the NFL season is going to look like, Bryan DeArdo broke that down by giving us five things that we can expect to see over the final nine weeks. You can check out his story here.
- Seven trades we wish had happened. The NFL trade deadline didn't have a ton of excitement this year, but it could have had a lot more if any of these trades had gone down. Josh Edwards came up with seven trades that could have turned the deadline upside down and you can check out those deals here.
