Though they have lost back-to-back games after their 5-0 start, the Minnesota Vikings still look, on balance, like one of the NFL's best teams. Brian Flores' elite, amoeba-like defense has been the subject of the most intense fascination, but there has also been a great deal of attention devoted to play of Sam Darnold.
For the most part, though, that attention has focused on the results. Let's dig into how those results have been achieved.
Let's start with the scheme. Head coach Kevin O'Connell has shown throughout his tenure in Minnesota that he can put his quarterback in position to succeed, and it's been no different with Darnold. He has rarely had to throw into tight windows, as Vikings receivers have generated an average of 3.7 yards of separation on pass attempts, via NFL Plus, the sixth-highest mark in the NFL. Minnesota has used play action at a top-10 rate (25.9% of pass attempts).
They Vikings have utilized pre-snap or at-the-snap motion on more than half of their snaps, via Tru Media. They have devoted more resources than almost any team to making sure their quarterback is well-protected, sending five receivers out on a route on only 57.1% of passing downs, the seventh-lowest rate in the NFL, indicating that they are devoted to keeping extra men in to block for Darnold as often as possible. They have an almost exactly equal pass-run split on early downs in neutral situations (49.8% pass to 50.2% run, via Tru Media), helping keep defenses off balance.
Then there's the offensive line. Amazingly, Darnold has been pressured at a rate barely above league average despite the fact that he leads the NFL in average time to throw at 3.17 seconds, via Tru Media. On the occasions where he has been pressured, it's taken opponents 2.65 seconds to get to him, which is the third-longest among all NFL quarterbacks. It's a similar story on sacks, where it has taken 4.99 seconds to get him to the ground, a faster time than almost Anthony Richardson, Brock Purdy, Bo Nix and Jayden Daniels. Considering Darnold's career-long struggles with passing under pressure (which have continued even into this season), it's hard to overstate the importance of that protection.
| Season | Pressure % | EPA/Pay |
|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 35.9% | -0.32 |
| 2019 | 42.2% | -0.22 |
| 2020 | 42.4% | -0.39 |
| 2021 | 38.1% | -0.52 |
| 2022 | 39.1% | -0.12 |
| 2024 | 38.5% | -0.62 |
The protection may soon be a bit different, though, as star left tackle Christian Darrisaw suffered a season-ending knee injury last week against the Rams. Darrisaw had been one of the small handful of best tackles in the league this season, allowing only 10 pressures in 231 pass-blocking snaps, via Pro Football Focus. It's probably not a coincidence that Darnold was pressured on 44.8% of his dropbacks against L.A., the second-most pressure he has seen this year. The Vikings tried to alleviate the tackle issue by trading for Cam Robinson earlier this week, but considering Robinson was playing behind Walker Little in Jacksonville of late, that may not be a true solution anyway.
Darnold has also benefitted from playing with elite weaponry. Justin Jefferson remains the NFL's best wide receiver. Jordan Addison has emerged as a strong No. 2 option on the outside. Aaron Jones, even this late in his career, has been one of the most efficient and explosive running backs in the league -- including in the pass game, where he is averaging a career-best 10.3 yards per reception. This week, Darnold should get star tight end T.J. Hockenson back in the lineup. Hockenson has been outrageously productive in Minnesota prior to his injury: In his 25 games with the team, he caught 155 passes for 1,479 yards and eight touchdowns. On a per-game basis, he averaged 2.2 more receptions (6.2 vs. 4.0) and 15.2 more yards (59.2 vs. 44) than he did during his time with the Detroit Lions, who made him a first-round pick in 2019. As Hockenson himself said, defenses "can't double everybody."
Come this Sunday night, when the Vikings take on a Colts team that ranks inside the bottom 10 in passing yards allowed, completion percentage allowed, opponent yards per attempt and opponent passer rating while pressuring quarterbacks at one of the lowest rates in the league, Darnold should have a chance to get back on track after a couple of games where he performed at a lower level than the one he established earlier in the season.
The betting markets have Minnesota as a 5-point favorite over Indianapolis on "Sunday Night Football," according to DraftKings. Check out the latest DraftKings promo to get in the game.
