The Pittsburgh Steelers and Buffalo Bills will be facing two opponents in Monday's Super Wild Card Weekend showdown: each other and the elements.
The weather will undoubtedly play a factor in the game, but not as much as if it was played on Sunday. The game was postponed and moved to Monday.
Which team will benefit more from the adverse weather conditions? We'll dig into that and more in our breakdown of Monday's game. But first, here's how you can check out the action in real time.
How to watch
- When: Monday, Jan. 15 | 4:30 p.m. ET
- Where: Highmark Stadium -- Orchard Park, New York
- TV: CBS | Live stream: Paramount+ (click here)
- Follow: CBS Sports App
- Odds: BUF -9; O/U 33 (via Caesars Sportsbook)
When the Steelers have the ball
Monday's weather probably won't change Pittsburgh's offensive plans very much. With Mason Rudolph under center, the Steelers have employed a lot of three tight end sets. Rudolph has largely been asked to complete short, safe passes, often on rollouts to his right. Rudolph occasionally throws deep, and one should expect that to continue on Monday.
Really, the running game has been the Steelers' bread and butter since Week 9, when they rolled up 166 yards on the ground against the Titans after moving rookie Broderick Jones into the starting lineup at right tackle. Since that game, the Steelers have averaged 145.2 rushing yards per game. With their season on the line, the Steelers ran for 202 yards in Seattle in Week 17 and 155 in sloppy conditions a week ago in Baltimore.
The main catalyst for Pittsburgh's success on the ground has been Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. The two are probably the second best RB duo in the NFL behind only the Lions' David Montgomery and Jahmyr GIbbs.
Harris and Warren complement each other well. Harris is more of a bell cow who got better as the season progressed (he finished the regular season with 122 and 112 yards in Pittsburgh's last two games). Warren averaged a team-high 5.3 yards per carry in addition to his 61 receptions.
The Steelers offense will face a Bills defense on Sunday that is kind of an enigma. The unit held the Chiefs to 17 points in Week 15 and held the Cowboys' top-ranked scoring offense to a putrid 10 points the next week. But the Bills followed those performances up with underwhelming games against backup quarterbacks Easton Stick and Bailey Zappe.
Sacks and interceptions are Buffalo's defensive strengths. Veteran defensive end Leonard Floyd led the Bills by recording 10.5 of the team's 54 sacks. Cornerback Rasul Douglas picked off four of Buffalo's 18 interceptions during the regular season.
Protecting Rudolph and limiting third and obvious passing situations will be critical for Pittsburgh. The Steelers should be able to do this given that the Bills were 28th in the NFL in average yards-per-carry allowed during the regular season. But if the Steelers beat themselves with pre-snap penalties and missed assignments, Rudolph will have his hands full in his first career playoff start. Diontae Johnson and George Pickens will have to make at least one big play downfield to keep Buffalo's defense honest.
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When the Bills have the ball
Like their defense, the Bills' offense is also puzzling. The unit finished sixth in the NFL in scoring during the regular season and has been a big reason for the team's current five-game winning streak. But they have yet to find a solution to their turnover woes. The Bills have coughed the ball up at least once in all but one of their last 13 games. Josh Allen has continued to turn the ball over at an alarming rate, with four picks and three fumbles in Buffalo's last three games.
Like the '79 Steelers (who won the Super Bowl despite leading the NFL in turnovers during the regular season), the Bills for now have found a way to win despite turning the ball over. A big reason why has been Allen's penchant for making big plays and the running of James Cook, who was recently selected to his first Pro Bowl. Cook will likely be leaned on even more on Sunday given the adverse weather and wideout Gabe Davis being ruled out with a knee injury.
Davis' absence will also likely lead to more contributions from second-year wideout Khalil Shakir and rookie first-round pick Dalton Kincaid. Kincaid came on strong at the end of the regular season with 87 and 84 yards receiving in Buffalo's last two games. Look for Allen to try to get Kincaid involved early on against a Pittsburgh defense that has historically struggled against top-tier tight ends.
Pittsburgh can't, however, sleep on Stefon Diggs, who continues to be Allen's go-to receiver. Diggs will likely be guarded by Joey Porter Jr., whose rookie campaign so far has been nothing short of outstanding.
Speaking of the Steelers' secondary, the unit is getting back Pro Bowl safety Minkah Fitzpatrick and fellow starting safety Damontae Kazee. The return of both players following three-game absences gives Pittsburgh considerable flexibility in the secondary.
The Steelers had success over the past three games with Patrick Peterson and Eric Rowe manning the safety spots. Given their newfound depth at safety, expect Mike Tomlin to threw several different personnel looks at Allen in an attempt to throw him off his game.
Pittsburgh will try to do something it has only done once in the last seven years: win a game that T.J. Watt doesn't play in. The Steelers are 1-10 in games without Watt since his rookie season. And while no one can replace Watt (who led the NFL in sacks again this season), the Steelers have more depth at OLB than they have in recent years.
Replacing Watt in the lineup will be rookie Nick Herbig, who like Watt attended Wisconsin and as a senior put up eerily similar numbers to the ones Watt compiled during his final season in Madison. Pittsburgh drafted Herbig this past spring after watching him execute basically the same role Wisconsin had Watt in six years earlier.
No, Herbig isn't Watt, but he is a young and promising player who has made plays this season. His strip-sack of Geno Smith helped set up a field goal during Pittsburgh's Week 17 win in Seattle.
Prediction
No, we haven't forgotten about special teams, which will likely play a significant factor on Monday given the weather conditions. The Steelers have one of the best kickers in the league in Chris Boswell. A former Pro Bowler, Boswell made 93.5% of his field goal tries this season and was 6 of 7 on attempts of at least 50 yards. Conversely, Buffalo kicker Tyler Bass made 82.8% of his field goal attempts and was 8 of 12 on attempts of at least 40 yards.
This game may very well come down to special teams, and if that's the case, my pick is on Boswell and the Steelers. This, however, will also depend on the Steelers capitalizing on Allen's mistakes and Rudolph continuing to take care of the ball while doing enough to help Pittsburgh pull off the upset.
Score: Steelers 13, Bills 10
