A few things I enjoy about every NFL season is seeing teams go worst-to-first, from pretenders to contenders, and of course, breakout performances like the quarterback leap.
I recently logged every quarterback leap since 2000 to find the most common factors linking them together as we look ahead to project leaps in 2024. The primary factors leading to quarterback leaps can be placed into four buckets. Development, coaching, supporting cast and a change of scenery. In case you missed this week's topics so far, I covered the history of quarterback leaps on Monday and the young quarterbacks most likely to take a leap on Tuesday.
Today is all about coaching, because this was the second-most common thread since 2000, showing up as the primary factor in 23 of the 97 leaps. It was relevant in 2023 as Baker Mayfield had a resurgent season with offensive coordinator Dave Canales, and Lamar Jackson returned to MVP form with offensive coordinator Todd Monken.
One of my favorite historical examples of a coach leading to a quarterback leap is Alex Smith with Jim Harbaugh and the 2011 49ers. Smith, a former top overall pick, was a complete bust up to that point in his career. He had a new offensive coordinator every year and couldn't shake the injury bug. Everything changed in 2011 as he had a career year and the 49ers reached the NFC Championship game.
So who is this year's Alex Smith or Baker Mayfield? Here's a look at three veteran quarterbacks with a new head coach or offensive coordinator. For this exercise I'll only look at returning signal-callers.
Editor's note: This is Part 3 of a five-part series that dives deep into NFL quarterbacks making sudden, massive improvement, which we've dubbed 'Quarterback Leap Week.' To see what's coming each day this week, scroll down to the end of this story.
Justin Herbert (likely)
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Justin Herbert is the most likely quarterback with a new coach to take a leap in 2024. I expect Jim Harbaugh to come in and completely change the culture there, turning a team that always underachieves into a dog, and Herbert from one of the most talented signal-callers to one of the best.
If Harbaugh's stint goes anything like it did with the 49ers, we're going to see the Chargers transform into a physical football team with opportunity for efficient and explosive quarterback play. San Francisco led the NFL in rush attempts in its first three seasons with Harbaugh, but also ranked top 10 in completion rate, yards per attempt and explosives per dropback.
Alex Smith resurrected his career in 2011 with Harbaugh after he was a big bust for five seasons.
| Alex Smith Career | First Five Seasons | 2011-12 with Jim Harbaugh |
|---|---|---|
W-L | 19-31 | 19-5-1 |
Yards per attempt | 6.2 | 7.5 |
TD-INT | 51-53 | 30-10 |
Passer rating | 72.1 | 95.1 |
Colin Kaepernick, who had a cannon for an arm like Herbert, was one of the best quarterbacks in the league from 2012-13 with Harbaugh. Neither of them did it with an elite group of pass catchers (Michael Crabtree and Vernon Davis), so I don't expect the Chargers mass exodus (Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Austin Ekeler, Jalen Guyton, Gerald Everett) to be a massive problem. Ekeler was on the decline, plus Allen and Williams were only both on the field 18% of the time in the previous two seasons.
Los Angeles has the beef up front to be a problem for teams with Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt at tackle, and enough weapons between Josh Palmer, Quentin Johnston and Ladd McConkey to do damage in the passing game.
So, I expect a more efficient Herbert with better protection, and there will be a better narrative around him with the Chargers actually winning games. He had five game-tying or go-ahead touchdown passes in the fourth quarter or overtime of losses last season. That was the most by any player in a season in NFL history. Once Harbaugh gets more out of this defense, Herbert will get the shine he deserves.
Jalen Hurts (maybe)
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The Eagles' ground game was less effective and their offense was more predictable last season, one reason Jalen Hurts put too much on his shoulders and threw 15 interceptions. New offensive coordinator Kellen Moore will shake things up as the Eagles will be using more motion after utilizing it at the lowest rate (26%) in the NFL in 2023, as Jeff Kerr wrote about last week. The Chargers used motion at the sixth-highest rate with Moore last year (59%).
Saquon Barkley is also going to help the Eagles find their identity again on the ground after that unit took a step back in 2023. Problem is, you can't easily replace a Hall of Fame center like Jason Kelce. The addition of A.J. Brown was the biggest reason for Hurts' leap in 2022, but the Eagles' offensive line was the foundation. Moore also didn't help Justin Herbert take the leap many expected in 2023, so for now I'm cautiously optimistic about his impact in Philadelphia and expect Hurts to settle in somewhere between his 2022 and 2023 versions.
Geno Smith (unlikely)
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The Seahawks coaching staff had a shakeup this offseason with Ravens defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald taking over for Pete Carroll at head coach, and University of Washington offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb replacing Shane Waldron in the same role in Seattle.
So what does it mean for Geno Smith? He didn't build off the breakout 2022 season in 2023 like some predicted, even after Seattle drafted wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba in the first round. He may have even taken a small step back. The Seahawks made slight improvements on the offensive line (signed guard Laken Tomlinson and drafted guard Christian Haynes in the third round) after Smith was pressured at the fifth-highest rate (40%) in the NFL in 2023. Smith certainly has the arm talent, but I don't think the protection will be good enough to have the same downfield success Michael Penix Jr. enjoyed at Washington. I could see Smith being an average to above-average starter again in 2024, but I'm not anticipating a leap to a top-five starter.
Quarterback Leap Week
Thursday: Which offseason move will lead to a leap?
They say the NFL is a copycat league and the new trend is trading for veteran pass catchers, especially those who can speed up the development of new quarterbacks. Getting top-flight wide receivers worked wonders for Josh Allen (Stefon Diggs), Joe Burrow (Ja'Marr Chase), Jalen Hurts (A.J. Brown), Tua Tagovailoa (Tyreek Hill) and Lamar Jackson (Zay Flowers). It's definitely a new fad, as a quarterback made a leap due primarily to an improved supporting cast in eight of the past 10 seasons. Leap candidates this year include Daniel Jones (Malik Nabers), Patrick Mahomes (Hollywood Brown and Xavier Worthy), Jalen Hurts (Saquon Barkley), Kyler Murray (Marvin Harrison Jr.) and C.J. Stroud (Stefon Diggs).
Friday: Which old face in a new place will improve the most?
The hot trend that bounced back after a miserable 2022 was veteran quarterback in new places. Baker Mayfield was able to resurrect his career in Tampa Bay, won a playoff game and got a three-year deal. Last season didn't work out so hot for Aaron Rodgers, but let's hit the reset button as 2023 was a wash. Other 2024 leap candidates include Russell Wilson and Justin Fields (both for the Steelers), Kirk Cousins (Falcons) and Gardner Minshew (Raiders).
