With just three weeks remaining in the regular season, we have a pretty good idea of the shape of the race for the NFL's Most Valuable Player award. There's a favorite, a No. 1 contender, an underdog story and a few players with outside chances of snagging the award.
What we don't yet know is how the final few weeks will play out. But that's likely what will determine which player actually gets the trophy. So, we wanted to use this space to lay out the scenario in which each of the current top five contenders can become the eventual MVP.
Bills QB Josh Allen
- Status: The favorite
- Remaining schedule: vs. Patriots, vs. Jets, at Patriots
- How he wins: Stay the course
Allen is the heavy favorite at the moment, and it's hard to dethrone the favorite. That's especially true given the way the Bills close the season. They have three games remaining, all against two of the NFL's worst teams. If the Bills go 3-0 and Allen has characteristically excellent performances, someone is going to have to do something pretty spectacular to take the award away from him.
Ravens QB Lamar Jackson
- Status: The No. 1 contender
- Remaining schedule: vs. Steelers, at Texans, vs. Browns
- How he wins: National TV greatness
Jackson is the player best positioned to snatch the award out of Allen's grasp. It helps that his numbers are already better than Allen's. He has more passing yards and touchdowns, fewer interceptions and more rushing yards, and he leads the NFL in EPA per play, according to Tru Media. But Allen is winning the perception game thanks to his alien-esque talent, Buffalo's record and his recent national TV heroics.
Here, the schedule actually works in Jackson's favor. He has two pretty tough opponents over the next two weeks -- and both games are island games on days where the NFL doesn't usually play. He gets the Steelers this coming Saturday, then the Texans in a Wednesday afternoon Christmas game. Those two teams also happen to have good defenses, especially Pittsburgh. If Jackson balls out and leads the Ravens to a pair of wins, then closes in spectacular form against the Browns, he could definitely still win.
Eagles RB Saquon Barkley
- Status: The underdog story
- Remaining schedule: at Commanders, vs. Cowboys, vs. Giants
- How he wins: Blowing away the field
It's going to take a whole lot for a running back to actually win the award in 2024. In my view, both Allen and Jackson would have to falter down the stretch -- and Barkley would probably need to go over 2,000 rushing yards and 20 total touchdowns. And honestly, even that probably wouldn't be enough, as we saw in multiple Derrick Henry seasons in years past. The perception gap in value between quarterbacks and running backs is too large to overcome.
Bengals QB Joe Burrow
- Status: The "his team has let him down" guy
- Remaining schedule: vs. Browns, vs. Broncos, at Steelers
- How he wins: Miracle playoff run ... and a lot of help
Burrow is both the analytics nerd's and the film nerd's pet candidate. Turn on the tape and watch what he's done this year, and it's pretty spectacular. The numbers, across the board, support that takeaway. But the Bengals are below .500 because their defense makes every opposing passer look like Burrow and every opposing running back look like Barkley. Cincinnati is 6-8 with three games remaining. The Bengals would have to sweep all three games to make the playoffs and see the Bills and Ravens lose at least once, if not twice, down the stretch with Allen and Jackson having particularly poor performances in those games in order for Burrow to have a real shot. Otherwise, he's likely to garner a bunch of down-ballot support but not many first- or second-place votes.
Lions QB Jared Goff
- Status: The people's candidate
- Remaining schedule: at Bears, at 49ers, vs. Vikings
- How he wins: Lock up the top seed, plus AFC contenders falter
The wheels are falling off the Lions' season at the moment, even as they are 12-2 and the top seed in the NFC. Pretty much everybody on the defense is injured, and even running back David Montgomery is now, as well. If Goff steers the Lions to three more victories down the stretch and wraps up the No. 1 seed while playing the type of football he did over the last two weeks against the Packers and Bills, he might have a shot. But he'll also need Allen and Jackson take a step backward in performance or perception. That Week 18 game against the Vikings, in what could essentially be an NFC North title game and a game that determines which teams gets home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs, also provides Goff a big opportunity for a statement.