The NFL MVP verdict: Our final call in the Matthew Stafford vs. Drake Maye debate

Embrace debate, they say. OK, here goes. 

A year after the Josh Allen-Lamar Jackson MVP discourse raged on into the postseason before delivering Allen the MVP in the closest vote in more than two decades, we are in a similar spot with Matthew Stafford and Drake Maye neck-and-neck. 

Tensions are high across every community, from experts to casual fans, as stats are flung around the spectrum, from simple to advanced, with ill intent and reckless abandon, typical of how information is shared these days. The discourse ranges from "Drake Maye didn't play anyone," to "Drake Maye actually played better defenses than Stafford." Or, "oldheads want to give Stafford a lifetime achievement award," and he was "padding stats."

There's a lot of BS being flung around. Consider this piece a final verdict from our NFL staff at CBS Sports -- providing clarity on two amazing seasons from deserving MVP candidates, busting a few myths -- and myths about myths going around, too!

What's at stake

First off, you can see why people get all worked up over the NFL MVP award. Individual recognition means a lot and this is the top of the mountain. The impact on a player's legacy is undeniable.

I wrote a few weeks ago about how an MVP is the missing piece of Stafford's Hall of Fame career. He can be the 15th quarterback in NFL history to win an MVP and a Super Bowl title. Ten of the 14 are in the Pro Football Hall of Fame, and three of the four who are not (Aaron Rodgers, Patrick Mahomes, and Tom Brady) will be in there eventually. 

Stafford is going to be in a crowded field of Hall of Fame-eligible and worthy quarterbacks over the next decade, so this would help separate him from the pack.  

For Maye, this is about history and the path to the Hall of Fame. He would be the fifth quarterback to win an MVP within his first two seasons, along with Dan Marino (1984), Kurt Warner (1999), Patrick Mahomes (2018) and Lamar Jackson (2019). That's four Hall of Fame quarterbacks.

Both Stafford and Maye had historic seasons

Both players also had such great seasons that they would win MVPs most years. 

2025 passing leaders

Stafford put up some counting stats that have rarely been seen before, and when they did, they earned MVPs. He's the third quarterback in NFL history with 45+ touchdown passes and fewer than 10 interceptions in a season. Tom Brady did this in his historic 2007 season when he won MVP and went 16-0. Aaron Rodgers did it during his MVP years in 2011 and 2020.

Stafford is also the second quarterback in the past 50 years to lead the NFL in touchdown passes, passing yards and touchdown-to-interception ratio, along with '07 Brady. Anytime you're on a list alone with 2007 Brady, you are in the rarest of air. 

Maye did it with superb arm strength, accuracy and his legs. He became the first player in league history with 4,000 passing yards while completing 70% of his passes and running for 450 yards. 

He pulled off a rare feat by leading the NFL in both completion percentage (72.0%) and yards per attempt (8.9), too. He's the youngest player to ever do that (23) and only the 10th overall since the merger. Peyton Manning never did it. Brady and Drew Brees only did it once. 

It's really hard to lead the NFL in completion percentage while also attempting passes further downfield than the rest of the league. He aired it out more than anyone in the league this year, with his average pass traveling 9.1 yards downfield. In 20 years of tracking, no one has ever had the highest completion rate in the league while also airing it out further than anyone, a testament to how spectacular Maye was this year. 

Maye had slightly better numbers

Overall, whether we are looking at counting stats, rate stats or advanced metrics, Maye had a slightly better season among two special years.

Matthew Stafford vs. Drake Maye this year

Maye led the NFL in EPA per dropback as the most efficient passer, while Stafford ranked third. Both put up a ton of yards, took care of the ball and aired it out. 

The one area where Maye separated himself was deep throws. They ranked 1-2 in completions traveling 15+ air yards, but Maye was first in completion rate (58%) and Stafford was eighth (48%). 

This is one of the reasons Maye was the most efficient quarterback this year. He ranked first in the NFL in completion rate over expected (+9.1%), meaning he overachieved more than anyone else in the league based on the difficulty of his throws (how open his targets were, how much pressure he was facing, how far the throw was, among other factors). Stafford ranked 16th. 

Maye did more with less

Maye was better. Not by much. But he was better. Still, when it's so close the debate is basically 1a and 1b, you have to conduct an MVP audit. 

The first defense for Maye is his supporting cast. He did more with less.

He has a defensive-minded head coach (Mike Vrabel) and Stafford has an offensive mastermind (Sean McVay). True, but let's not pretend like Josh McDaniels doesn't exist.

The metrics vary by tracking method, but the general consensus is that the Patriots have an average offensive line, and the Rams have one of the better units in the NFL. I'll lean on ESPN's pass block win rates, which rank the Rams fifth and the Patriots 13th. It's still a lot closer than some would have you believe. No, Maye is not playing behind one of the worst lines in the NFL, not even close.

Maye also isn't throwing it to many household names. It's Stefon Diggs past his prime, while Stafford has Puka Nacua and Davante Adams (also past his prime, but an incredible red zone weapon).

One more feather in Maye's cap is that he can become the first quarterback in NFL history to win MVP in a season with no Pro Bowl teammate on offense. Cornerback Christian Gonzalez was the only other Patriots player to make the Pro Bowl this season. Puka Nacua earned a selection with the Rams by racking up over 1,700 yards.

Of course, Pro Bowls aren't as valuable as they used to be and a Patriot could get in as a replacement, so take that for what it's worth.

Stafford had a harder schedule

So this debate is over, right? Maye did more and he did it with a worse supporting cast. Not so fast! Stafford supporters have come to his defense, pointing out that he played a much harder schedule in the toughest division in football. The NFC West was the first division in NFL history with three 12-win teams.

There's some merit to this argument on the surface. The Patriots played the easiest schedule in terms of opponent record since the 1999 Rams. The 2025 Rams played the seventh-hardest schedule in the league. Even our Sportline projections (which factor in each team's strength on a neutral field) had the Patriots with the easiest schedule and the Rams with the fifth hardest. It's hard to ignore these numbers below at first glance. Stafford had 22 touchdown passes vs. winning teams this year, and Maye had two!

This season vs. teams to finish above .500

It's flawed logic to rely solely on an opponent's overall strength when debating the MVP award. For example, Maye should get more credit for playing well against a 5-12 Browns team than Stafford doing the same against a 12-5 49ers squad. It seems upside down, but the Browns ranked second in defensive EPA and the 49ers ranked in the bottom 10 in the NFL.  

I agree with that logic, so here's a breakdown of the defenses they faced. Stafford still faced more top 10 defenses using the EPA metric (6 vs. Maye's 2) and top five units (4 vs. Maye's one) but the overall average strength of the defenses they faced (16th vs 20th) is much closer than the above strength of schedule stats would suggest. 

Strength of defenses faced by (per defensive EPA) this season

So the Patriots' cupcake schedule doesn't bury Maye, but it's still easier than Stafford's, and it doesn't exonerate him, either. The way I look at it, Maye's worse supporting cast and easier schedule pretty much offset each other in this debate. We're even.

Stafford is not a stat padder

So, what's left? There's still some more noise to parse through. Stafford's 46 touchdown passes obviously stand out on the surface, so many have falsely called out Stafford for stat padding with the memory fresh in their minds of his three touchdown passes late in Week 18 vs. a bad Cardinals team to pull ahead in MVP odds. 

First off, if you're going to penalize Stafford for throwing a one-yard touchdown pass when he was up 10 late in the game, you're off your rocker. Have you seen the number of crazy comebacks in the NFL this year? They were trying to lock up the five seed so they could face the Panthers this weekend, one of the worst playoff teams of all time. That was about winning at all costs.

I've understandably seen a lot of Maye supporters call out Stafford for a historic amount of short-yardage touchdown passes this year, though. It's tempting to feed into that on the surface, but they couldn't be more wrong. 

Why should he be penalized for this when he was more effective throwing for touchdowns from those spots than when the Rams ran it?

Stafford had eight touchdown passes from the one-yard line this year, tying an NFL record. He threw eight touchdown passes from the one on 10 dropbacks (80% TD rate) while the Rams had six touchdown runs from the one on 13 attempts (46% TD rate)

He also had 16 touchdown passes inside the five, one shy of the record. Mahomes had 17 in 2022 when he won MVP, for the record. Stafford was better at throwing it from inside the five (16 TDs on 23 dropbacks) than the Rams were at running in it (12 on 28 attempts). Again, a huge disparity in the success rate. 

If anything, he should get a pat on the back for helping his team win games because nobody could stop Stafford from throwing goal-line fades and slants to Davante Adams, who is a matchup nightmare.

But sure, let's call him a stat padder for making the right plays and dunking on fools. Let's not forget Kyren Williams cost the Rams a win in Week 5 against the 49ers when he lost a fumble on a run near the goal line in the final minutes of the fourth quarter. 

Since that loss, Stafford is 9-for-11 targeting Davante Adams inside the five for nine touchdowns! Again, that's not stat padding. The team made an adjustment in their play calling in the red area and it helped them win games. Calling BS on that is like getting mad at Brady for throwing touchdowns to Randy Moss.

Overall, Stafford had five touchdown passes in the fourth quarter when it wasn't a one-score game this year. I hardly consider that a lot of garbage time production, either. 

We also can't penalize Stafford for having more opportunities in close, late situations. He ranked fourth in the NFL in EPA per dropback (0.34) in the fourth quarter or overtime of a one-score game. Maye ranked 17th (0.08).

Fourth quarter/OT in one-score games this season 

The Rams were 4-5 in one-score games this year, but we'll hardly blame Stafford for the terrible special teams that cost the team wins in Philadelphia and Seattle.  

That should not take anything away from what Maye did, either. He really didn't have a ton of opportunities to come through in the clutch. The Patriots actually went 10 straight games without even trailing in the fourth quarter.

OK, enough of the talk. Here's how a staff of 11 voted between Stafford and Maye. Should it be any indication of how the real MVP vote goes, it will be one of the closest in recent memory. 

The voters (11)

• John Breech, NFL staff writer
• Jared Dubin, NFL staff writer
• Josh Edwards, NFL Draft writer
• Emory Hunt, CBS Sports HQ analyst
• Katie Mox, CBS Sports HQ analyst
• Zach Pereles, senior writer
• Garrett Podell, NFL staff writer
• Tyler Sullivan, NFL staff writer
• JP Acosta, CBS Sports HQ analyst
• Jordan Dajani, NFL writer
• Douglas Clawson, CBS Sports researcher and writer

Matthew Stafford (5)

Matthew Stafford

LAR • QB • #9

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This is an incredibly close vote, but Stafford just barely squeaks it out, not only because his best was absolutely magnificent, but because he reached that level so often. Stafford had at least 250 passing yards, three touchdowns and zero interceptions in eight different games, tying 2020 Aaron Rodgers and 2007 Tom Brady for most in a single season ever. Both of those guys won MVP. We talk about "MVP moments" a lot, but perhaps Stafford lacks a single standout one because he has so many candidates -- a simply outstanding season that's just enough to earn him the nod over Maye.  -- Zach Pereles

No disrespect to Maye and the New England Patriots, who clearly have a bright future together, but what exactly was their key victory this year? The Bills? The team they also lost to? The Patriots had a historically easy schedule, while the Rams had to battle in the NFL's toughest division. Matthew Stafford led the NFL in passing yards (4,707), passing touchdowns (46) and TD-INT ratio (46-8). The only other player to lead the NFL in all three categories was Tom Brady in 2007 -- which was arguably his best season. Every quarterback who has thrown 45 touchdowns and fewer than 10 interceptions in a season has won MVP. Why would that change now? -- Jordan Dajani

When you look at the efficiency of Stafford and the effectiveness with which he runs the offense, especially in critical situations, it shows you how outstanding his play really has been this season. Coupling that fact with the fact that he is playing in an extremely tough division with a lot of high-leverage games, and still is performing at an absurd pace and remarkable level. He's having the same passing season Lamar Jackson had, in which Jackson should've won the MVP. Time to right a wrong and reward Stafford for his play. -- Emory Hunt

I don't think you can really go wrong here; it's like trying to decide between left Twix and right Twix, but I'm going to take the QB who led the NFL in passing yards and TD passes while playing against the toughest schedule in the NFL. Drake Maye was awesome this season, and if he wins, you won't hear any complaints from me, because he's equally deserving, but as I said, I'm giving the slight nod to Stafford. -- John Breech

As a salty 49ers fan, it pains me to admit this, but Stafford deserves MVP because he's been incredible in the toughest division in football. The NFC West has been a weekly street fight, and he's still making elite throws, answering every punch, and flat-out carrying his team. I hate that I respect it… But that's exactly what MVP looks like.  -- Katie Mox

Drake Maye (6)

Drake Maye

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Stafford led in passing yards and touchdowns, but threw 105 more passes than Maye. Maye led the NFL in completion percentage, yards per attempt, passer rating, QBR and EPA per play. Throw in his work as a rusher, and I think he was ever-so-slightly more valuable over the course of the year. -- Jared Dubin

When considering the supporting cast, Maye has done more to uplift that team than any other. The Rams were expected to be where they are now and the Patriots were an unexpected development. New England's offensive line was an issue, and the wide receivers were not all that inspiring on paper coming into the season. Maye has led an efficient, explosive offense through his capabilities as a runner and a passer.   -- Josh Edwards

This is a tightly contested year for the MVP award, but my pick is Maye, given just how absurd this season is that he's having and the drastic improvement he's made from promising to elite. He's first in the NFL in EPA per play and second in Success Rate as a passer (min. 150 dropbacks), and what he's done on passes 20 or more air yards downfield has been almost video game-like. His 1.31 EPA per dropback on deep passes this season outpaces the NFL by such a large margin that the distance between first and second place (Seahawks QB Sam Darnold) is just under the margin between Darnold at second and Caleb Williams at 11th. On top of that, the biggest reason why the Patriots went from last in the AFC East to a division-winning 2-seed is Maye's rapid growth. This team isn't that drastically different when it comes to on-field talent. The only differences in receiving talent are a 32-year-old Stefon Diggs and journeyman Mack Hollins. Maye's elevation in play is why the Patriots are in this place, and for that, he's my MVP.  -- JP Acosta

If you take Maye out of New England and slot in a baseline QB, the Patriots are nowhere near the playoffs. Do the same thing with Stafford, and while they'll certainly be worse, it wouldn't be like the unmitigated disaster we'd see in Foxborough, which is why Maye is the pick here. He's done more with less.  -- Tyler Sullivan

Drake Maye was the more efficient passer, leading the league in completion percentage, yards per pass attempt, passer rating, completion percentage over expected and expected points added (EPA) per dropback. Maye did all that while throwing to a noticeably worse supporting cast: Stefon Diggs at 32 years old, fresh off a torn ACL, 31-year-old Hunter Henry and 2023 sixth-round pick Kayshon Boutte were his top targets. That's a little different than throwing to Puka Nacua and Davante Adams like Stafford. Maye is elevating a lesser supporting cast and still profiling as the NFL's most efficient passer with a 14-3 record, tied for the best team record in the NFL this season. Drake Maye is the 2025 NFL MVP.  -- Garrett Podell

At the end of the day, I'm siding with Maye in the MVP debate by a slim margin. Most of the narratives out there are BS or exaggerated and none move the needle enough to move me off Maye. 

Once you cut through all the noise, it really boils down to two deserving MVP seasons, with Maye getting the slight edge. He had a more productive season and his deep passing with a worse supporting cast was truly special. 

The cupcake schedule wasn't as soft as it appeared; it was actually closer to average in defending quarterbacks. You can't penalize him for the lack of clutch opportunities because the Patriots were in control in most of their games vs. weaker opponents, either.

Maye is more deserving, but the margin is still razor-thin. And just think, we might be having a completely different discussion if the Rams had gotten the one seed and hadn't lost on the luckiest two-point conversion of all time in Seattle. I think that pretty much sums up how chaotic all of the discourse really is. Nuts. Plus, we'll still have another month to debate it too because the winner won't be announced until "NFL Honors" on Feb. 5. -- Douglas Clawson