NFL odds, lines, picks, spreads, bets, predictions for Week 11, 2024: Model high on Saints and Titans

Despite being mid-November, there are NFL teams who have yet to play a divisional game. That will change on Sunday, when the Steelers and Bears will take on divisional foes for the first time. The Steelers are three-point home underdogs to Baltimore, in the Week 11 NFL odds, while the Bears are six-point underdogs against the Packers in the NFL spreads. There is one other divisional contest on Sunday, 49ers vs. Seahawks (+6), which will be the second matchup between the two this season. San Francisco won and covered when the teams met in Week 6, and the 49ers have won six straight versus Seattle, going 5-1 against the spread in those games. Is backing San Francisco an optimal decision with Week 11 NFL picks? All of the updated Week 11 NFL lines are listed below, and SportsLine's advanced computer model has all the NFL betting advice and NFL predictions you need to make the best Week 11 NFL picks now.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 11 of the 2024 NFL season on an incredible 17-7 betting hot streak on top-rated NFL picks this year. Longer term, it is on a 197-136 roll on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season and a 51-29 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of 2022.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone following at sportsbooks and on betting apps has seen strong returns.

Now, it has turned its attention to the latest Week 11 NFL odds and NFL betting lines and locked in betting picks for every NFL matchup. Head here to see every pick.

Top Week 11 NFL predictions

We can tell you one of the model's strongest Week 11 NFL picks is that the Titans (+6.5, 39.5) cover the spread at home versus the Vikings. Despite its lack of success this season, Tennessee owns the No. 1 total defense in the NFL in addition to the No. 1 passing defense. That makes this an unfriendly matchup for Vikings QB Sam Darnold, who has had the rug pulled out from under him over the last few weeks. Darnold enters this game with three turnovers in back-to-back games, and those contests were versus Colts and Jaguars teams that rank 29th and 32nd, respectively, in total defense.

Darnold leads the NFL in both turnovers (13) and interceptions (10), while Will Levis showed discernible progress on Sunday. After missing three games, Levis posted the highest CMP% of his career (78.26%) and his third-highest passer rating (127.4) as Tennessee went turnover-free for the first time this season. Turnover-free is not something the model forecasts for Minnesota on Sunday, as it projects two giveaways for it, which enable Tennessee (+6.5) to cover in almost 60% of simulations. See which other teams to pick here.

Another one of its Week 11 NFL predictions: the Saints (-1.5, 44) cover at home versus the Browns in almost 70% of simulations. Jameis Winston is coming off a three-interception game, which is something even Deshaun Watson has never done during his disastrous tenure in Cleveland. Now, Winston has to face a team that knows his weaknesses as well as anyone as the Heisman winner spent the last four years with the Saints. New Orleans just kept Kirk Cousins out of the endzone, sacked him three times, made him fumble twice and intercepted him once, so the Saints should feast on someone like Winston.

The Saints haven't committed a turnover in three straight games, while Cleveland hasn't forced a turnover in four straight. Extra possessions for New Orleans' offense will allow it to take advantage of a Browns' defense that is bottom-10 in yards per play allowed (5.5), passer rating allowed (97.4), and one that just traded away its second-leading sack artist in Za'Darius Smith. SportsLine's model has New Orleans (-1.5) covering with plenty of points to spare, as it has the Saints victorious against the spread in 70% of simulations. See which other teams to pick here.

How to make Week 11 NFL picks

The model has also made the call on who wins and covers in every other game on the Week 11 NFL schedule and just revealed five teams that outright win in at least 70% of the time, potentially giving you a huge payday. You can only get every pick for every game at SportsLine.

So what NFL picks can you make with confidence, and which five must-see picks should you lock in now? Check out the latest NFL odds below, then visit SportsLine to see which teams win and cover the spread, all from a proven computer model that has returned well over $7,000, and find out.

Week 11 NFL betting odds, lines, spreads

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