And then there were eight. The 2025 NFL playoff picture was trimmed down from 14 teams to eight throughout Wild Card Weekend, and now we have our eyes set on the divisional round, which means the No. 1 seeds will check back in and begin their push for a Super Bowl title.
As you may have expected, Wild Card Weekend was just that -- wild. When everyone -- including yours truly -- expected the Chargers to pull off the road win in Houston, the Texans came roaring with a victory as a home dog. Meanwhile, the Commanders doinked themselves to a playoff win over the Buccaneers, continuing Jayden Daniels' magical rookie season. Those were two of my straight up and ATS losses on the playoff slate, but it was a solid showing overall, going 3-3 ATS and 4-2 SU for the weekend.
We'll look to dial in even more as we continue through the postseason.
NFL season record
2025 playoffs
ATS: 3-3
ML: 4-2
2024 regular season
Locks of the Week ATS: 38-44-2
ATS: 131-135-6
ML: 178-94
All NFL odds via SportsLine Consensus
Houston Texans (4) at Kansas City Chiefs (1)
- Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET (ESPN/ABC, stream on fubo)
The Kansas City Chiefs have left us scratching our heads all season. Despite just one loss on their résumé, there's been plenty of questions if this is a club that truly has the legs to make a deep playoff run. Well, I do. This is a team led by Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid, who have been there and won that. Over his career, Mahomes has flat-out dominated in the divisional round, owning a 6-0 record while totaling 302.2 total yards per game, 16 total touchdowns and zero turnovers. This is when he officially flips the switch and I anticipate the Chiefs looking like a powerhouse, particularly after this extended break of over 20 days. While Houston did rally after a sluggish start against the Chargers, I still have my doubts that they can take down a legitimate Super Bowl contender like they'll face here in the Chiefs.
Projected scores: Chiefs 30, Texans 20
The pick: Chiefs -8
Washington Commanders (6) at Detroit Lions (1)
- Saturday, 8 p.m. ET (Fox, stream on fubo)
The Commanders have been one of the more entertaining stories throughout the NFL this season, and are a dangerous team to face. Even when they seem to be dead in the water, Jayden Daniels is able to surge his team to victory. Washington should be a postseason threat for years to come, but I think their story comes to a close in Detroit. The key angle here is the Lions ability to pound the football on the ground, especially as they are set to get David Montgomery back. The Commanders have been among the worst rushing defenses in the NFL this season, which plays directly into the hands of Jahmyr Gibbs and Montgomery. If they find success on the ground, that not only helps the offense force their way down the field, but it also keeps Daniels on the sideline.
Meanwhile, when the Commanders are on offense, the Lions have the tools to slow them down. Aaron Glenn's defense is No. 1 in the league on third down, and Amik Robertson just showed us in Week 18 against Minnesota vs. Justin Jefferson that he's capable of shutting down a top receiving option like Terry McLaurin.
Projected scores: Lions 33, Commanders 21
The pick: Lions -9.5
Los Angeles Rams (4) at Philadelphia Eagles (2)
- Sunday, 3 p.m. ET (NBC, stream on fubo)
There's something about this Rams team that should make everyone that's left in the postseason a little nervous, particularly the Eagles, who are set to welcome them into Philly this weekend. Offensively, Los Angeles poses a lot of problems for what is admittedly a stout Eagles defense. When they get within range, Kyren Williams has a nose for the end zone on the ground, and Matthew Stafford is playing some hyper-efficient football as of late. It doesn't hurt that he has one of the best receiver duos in the NFL in Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp at his disposal.
Most importantly, however, the Rams defense is white hot. The unit is coming off a nine-sack performance in the wild-card round and has halted opponents from scoring double digits in points in their last four games with all of their starters (excluding Week 18). Philadelphia poses just as many problems on both sides of the ball, but I think Sean McVay will cook up a game plan that puts the Eagles on the ropes and at the very least covers. This season, the Rams are 5-3 ATS on the road, so we love the points here and we'll also back them to pull off the upset with an outright win.
Projected scores: Rams 27, Eagles 24
The pick: Rams +6
Baltimore Ravens (3) at Buffalo Bills (2)
- Sunday, 6:30 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
This is a heavyweight battle that should be fascinating to watch unfold. Remarkably, the oddsmakers have made the Bills a home underdog at Highmark Stadium. While jarring at first glance, I think it's warranted as the Ravens are a force at the moment. The combination of Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry as a rushing duo in the backfield was built for playoff games like this. It's also a favorable matchup with the Bills allowing 4.5 yards per rush this season, which ranks in the bottom half of the league. While Jackson and Henry rightfully take the lion's share of attention, do you know who the No. 1 scoring defense, total defense and third-down defense has been in the NFL since Week 11? Baltimore. Their resurgence defensively is what has them as a bona fide Super Bowl contender and live to come out of Buffalo with their ticket stamped for the AFC Championship.
Projected scores: Ravens 27, Bills 23
The pick: Ravens -1
