NFL playoff bracket, schedule, odds picks for divisional round: Broncos exact revenge on Josh Allen, Bills

The NFL couldn't have asked for a more entertaining opening round of the playoffs. Wild Card Weekend had us on the edge of our seats from wire-to-wire, and it's already broken records. The 12 fourth-quarter lead changes and the four game-winning drives in the final three minutes of regulation were the most in a single postseason all-time. And we're only through one round. If that's any indication of how chaotic things are going to be over these next few weeks, we'll likely need to stock up on heart medication. 

From our betting standpoint, it was a solid start to the postseason as I was an even 3-3 against the spread and 4-2 straight-up. Chicago's comeback over the Packers was what helped swing me into the black after taking them with the points and moneyline on Saturday night. Now, I turn my attention to the divisional round where the No. 1 seeds enter the conversation, and bids to the AFC and NFC Championships are on the line. Let's get to it. 

Prisco's NFL divisional picks: Bills, Josh Allen too much for Broncos D, Rams end Bears' Cinderella season

Pete Prisco

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

2025 record

Playoffs
ATS: 3-3
ML: 4-2

Regular season
Locks of the Week ATS: 48-42-0
ATS: 118-151-3
ML: 167-104-1

Buffalo Bills at Denver Broncos

Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET (CBS | Paramount+)

You don't have to think too far back to remember the last time the Bills and Broncos squared off in the playoffs. It was just last year during the wild-card round, and Buffalo straight-up embarrassed Denver. Josh Allen orchestrated a 31-7 win at Highmark Stadium, and the score doesn't even tell the whole story of how dominant the Bills were in the contest. Buffalo held possession for 41:43 and scored on six of its seven drives (not including kneels). Meanwhile, Denver started strong with an opening touchdown drive, but shut out the rest of the way. 

Given that blowout and Josh Allen's ability to erase what feels like any sort of deficit, it wouldn't be shocking to see Buffalo backed by the majority of the public. However, I think there's an opportunity here for Denver to enact some revenge from the playoff loss a year ago. First off, this game will be in their building, which wasn't the case last year. Over the regular season, the Broncos were 8-1 straight up at Mile High, and the added elevation does give them an added advantage. They also have the rest advantage after being on the bye as the No. 1 seed. 

Moreover, Denver has a defense capable of keeping Allen at bay. They were a historically great unit at attacking the quarterback this season, piling up 68 sacks (tied for fifth-highest all-time). The Broncos defense held opposing quarterbacks to just a 57.8% completion rate and a 5.4 yards per attempt average, each of which ranked inside the top-two in the NFL this season. 

When looking at the Broncos offense, RJ Harvy could prove to be the X-factor. He had an advantageous matchup against a poor Buffalo run defense, and if he can find lanes, that'll only further help the defense with Josh Allen a mere spectator on the sideline. 

Projected score: Broncos 27, Bills 23
The pick: Broncos -1.5

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks

Saturday, 8 p.m. ET (Fox | Fubo, try for free)

These two teams split the season series, but the last time they faced one another (Week 18), Seattle pulled out a convincing 13-3 win over the Niners. The Seahawks defense continued to look like one of the best in the NFL in that contest, holding Brock Purdy to just 127 yards through the air and Christian McCaffrey to just 57 total yards from scrimmage. A key reason for San Francisco's inability to do anything offensively was due to star left tackle Trent Williams not being available for that matchup due to injury, and he has since returned. 

While that gives the 49ers a boost, they were once again hit with a devastating injury against Philadelphia last week, losing tight end George Kittle to a torn Achilles. Kittle is a linchpin to the offense, so it's a sizable loss against a tremendously difficult defense. During the regular season, the Seahawks defense ranked No. 1 in the league in points per game allowed (17.2), yards per rush allowed (3.7), and third down (32.1% conversion rate). They were also second in the league in yards per play allowed (4.6). Defenses carryover quite well into the playoffs, and I expect another dominant effort in this game, with San Francisco's injuries finally coming home to roost. 

Projected score: Seahawks 30, 49ers 20
The pick: Seahawks -7

Houston Texans at New England Patriots

Sunday, 3 p.m. ET (ESPN, ABC | Fubo, try for free)

If you looked at Wild Card Weekend from 10,000 ft., you'd think Houston is the most dominant team of the bunch, particularly after a 30-6 blowout over the Steelers. While that was an impressive win, it was primarily due to the defense, which scored two touchdowns in the effort. Offensively, there wasn't much to be desired, especially from C.J. Stroud. The Texans quarterback was downright bad in that playoff game, accounting for five fumbles (two lost) and a brutal interception in the red zone. Pittsburgh was unable to capitalize on really any of these miscues, posting just three points off three turnovers. I don't believe they'll be as fortunate if the same occurs against New England.

One of the more eye-opening aspects of the first round of the playoffs was how dominant the Patriots defense was. In a mucky game against the Chargers, the defense rolled, pressuring Justin Herbert effectively every time he dropped back and sacked him six times. So, the Patriots are capable of pressuring Stroud in a similar way he was last week, which opens the door for more turnovers. While Drake Maye will have his fair share of challenges against a stout Houston pass rush, his mobility could help negate that impact on this game. 

Projected score: Patriots 24, Texans 20
The pick: Patriots -3

Los Angeles Rams at Chicago Bears

Sunday, 6:30 p.m. ET (NBC)

No matter how hard teams try, they can't quite seem to kill the Bears. Chicago pulled off a comeback for the ages against the Packers last week, erupting with a 25-point fourth quarter to advance to the divisional round. Meanwhile, the Rams needed some late-game heroics from Matthew Stafford, who orchestrated a game-winning drive on the road in Carolina deep in the fourth quarter. As impressive as both comebacks were, however, they each highlighted how their defenses could prove to be a major problem as we go further into these playoffs. 

Los Angeles does have a capable pass rush, but it has been susceptible in the secondary. Against Carolina, Jalen Coker and Tetairoa McMillan combined for 14 catches, 215 yards, and a touchdown. Now, that unit has to face a Bears pass-catching unit that is overflowing with high-caliber weapons like Colston Loveland, DJ Moore, Rome Odunze, and Luther Burden III. Similarly, Chicago's defense has plenty of questions and did just allow Jordan Love to toss four touchdowns to four different pass catchers. That sets up the possibility for Stafford to feast with Puka Nacua and Davante Adams at his disposal. 

This is a long way of saying that the over is very much in play for this matchup, as I expect both offenses to find success. In the end, I have Los Angeles making one extra play to advance, but Chicago will keep it within the number.

Projected score: Rams 30, Bears 27
The pick: Bears +3.5