The road to New Orleans and Super Bowl LIX begins on Saturday with the first of six games on Wild Card Weekend. But for some teams, the path is harder than it is for others.
In the NFC the seventh-seeded Packers face a rocky road just to get to the Big Easy. If they knock off the No. 2 seed Eagles (14-3) on Sunday in Philadelphia, Green Bay would then move on to face the top-seeded Lions (15-2), a team that has beaten the Packers twice this season. But if Green Bay somehow gets to the NFC Championship Game, the SportsLine Projection Model likes the team's chances against anyone it would face there.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times and is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception, has crunched the numbers and identified each playoff team's most ideal road to lift the Lombardi Trophy. Here's a little teaser: According to the model, all NFC teams should be rooting for the Texans.
No. 1 Detroit Lions
Ideal road
Divisional Round: Commanders
NFC Championship Game: Rams
Super Bowl: Texans
The Lions haven't reached—much less won—a Super Bowl in franchise history, but this season is arguably their best chance yet. They are the No. 1 seed for the first time in franchise history and have both home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs and a bye into the Divisional Round.
Here's an oddity: The SportsLine Projection Model says the seventh-seeded Packers have the best chance of any team in the NFC at beating Detroit (47.6%), even though the Lions won their two regular-season meetings. So Detroit fans may consider rooting for the Eagles to beat Green Bay in their wild-card matchup on Sunday.
The model gives the Lions a 60.9% chance of beating the Buccaneers if the teams square off in a rematch of the Week 2 game, which Tampa Bay prevailed in.
| Lions | |
| Opponent | Win percentage |
| Eagles | 53.9 |
| Buccaneers | 60.9 |
| Rams | 73.8 |
| Vikings | 66.6 |
| Commanders | 64.3 |
| Packers | 52.4 |
| Chiefs | 53.3 |
| Bills | 44.8 |
| Ravens | 43.9 |
| Texans | 64.9 |
| Chargers | 59.5 |
| Steelers | 60.3 |
| Broncos | 61.1 |
No. 2 Philadelphia Eagles
Ideal road
Divisional Round: Rams
NFC Championship Game: Commanders
Super Bowl: Texans
The Eagles will face the Packers in a wild-card game on Sunday, and according to the SportsLine Projection Model that contest could be Philadelphia's most difficult on the road to New Orleans, outside of a matchup against the Lions. The Eagles beat Green Bay just 58.3% of the time according to the model, and that is Philadelphia's second-lowest winning percentage against any NFC team (it's 46.1% against Detroit). Remember: In a Week 1 matchup in Brazil, the Eagles outlasted the Packers 34-29.
Among all NFC teams, the model likes Philadelphia's chances best against the Rams (75.0%), whom the Eagles beat 37-20 in Week 12.
| Eagles | |
| Opponent | Win percentage |
| Lions | 46.1 |
| Buccaneers | 67.5 |
| Rams | 75.0 |
| Vikings | 70.8 |
| Commanders | 67.6 |
| Packers | 58.3 |
| Chiefs | 58.3 |
| Bills | 47.7 |
| Ravens | 47.3 |
| Texans | 66.6 |
| Chargers | 62.3 |
| Steelers | 64.1 |
| Broncos | 64.2 |
No. 3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Ideal road
Divisional Round: Rams
NFC Championship Game: Packers
Super Bowl: Texans
The Buccaneers have been giant killers this season, having beaten three teams—Lions, Eagles and Commanders—that finished with at least 12 wins. That's tied for the most such wins in NFL history. The win over Washington came in Week 1, and Tampa Bay will need to beat the Commanders again on Sunday.
If the Buccaneers advance, their best path to New Orleans includes the Packers taking out the Eagles because that result would mean a Divisional Round home game for Tampa Bay against either the Rams or Vikings instead of traveling to Philadelphia. According to the SportsLine Projection Model, the Eagles beat the Buccaneers 67.5% of the time, the highest percentage of any possible NFC opponent.
| Buccaneers | |
| Opponent | Win percentage |
| Lions | 39.1 |
| Eagles | 32.5 |
| Rams | 66.1 |
| Vikings | 57.1 |
| Commanders | 56.3 |
| Packers | 43.3 |
| Chiefs | 47.8 |
| Bills | 36.8 |
| Ravens | 37.4 |
| Texans | 56.7 |
| Chargers | 52.3 |
| Steelers | 52.9 |
| Broncos | 54.8 |
No. 4 Los Angeles Rams
Ideal road
Divisional Round: Commanders
NFC Championship Game: Packers
Super Bowl: Texans
The good news for the Rams is that their wild-card opponent, the Vikings, gives Los Angeles its best chance of advancing to the Divisional Round. According to the SportsLine Projection Model, the Rams have a 44.3% chance of beating Minnesota. That's the highest percentage L.A. has against any opponent, including those in the AFC. Matthew Stafford & Co. already have beaten the Vikings this season, winning a 30-20 decision at SoFi Stadium in Week 8.
But the bad news for the Rams is that they have played three other NFC playoff teams this season (Lions, Packers and Eagles) and lost all three. Los Angeles fans should be cheering hard to see the Commanders (42.4% chance to win) at some point.
| Rams | |
| Opponent | Win percentage |
| Lions | 26.2 |
| Eagles | 25.0 |
| Buccaneers | 33.9 |
| Vikings | 44.3 |
| Commanders | 42.4 |
| Packers | 30.2 |
| Chiefs | 33.0 |
| Bills | 25.8 |
| Ravens | 27.3 |
| Texans | 43.1 |
| Chargers | 36.5 |
| Steelers | 37.5 |
| Broncos | 39.9 |
No. 5 Minnesota Vikings
Ideal road
Divisional Round: Commanders
NFC Championship Game: Packers
Super Bowl: Texans
The Vikings' ideal road to New Orleans obviously does not include the Lions. Minnesota is 0-2 against Detroit this season, including a 31-9 blowout in Week 18, and 14-1 against everyone else (that lone loss came against the Rams). Minnesota beats the Lions just 33.4% of the time, according to the SportsLine Projection Model.
If the Vikings get by Los Angeles, Minnesota has less than a 50.0% chance of beating every other NFC team the rest of the way, except for the Commanders (53.9%).
| Vikings | |
| Opponent | Win percentage |
| Lions | 33.4 |
| Eagles | 29.2 |
| Buccaneers | 42.9 |
| Rams | 55.7 |
| Commanders | 53.9 |
| Packers | 42.3 |
| Chiefs | 43.9 |
| Bills | 35.2 |
| Ravens | 35.2 |
| Texans | 54.0 |
| Chargers | 48.7 |
| Steelers | 51.8 |
| Broncos | 50.1 |
No. 6 Washington Commanders
Ideal road
Divisional Round: Rams
NFC Championship Game: Packers
Super Bowl: Texans
The Commanders have lost five straight playoff games and have not advanced to the NFC Championship Game since their Super Bowl-winning season in 1991. That's the second-longest active drought in the NFL. If they want to end that drought, they could use some help, particularly the Packers eliminating the Eagles and the Rams beating the Vikings. That scenario would set up a Washington-Los Angeles Divisional Round game, which the Commanders win 57.6% of the time according to the SportsLine Projection Model.
If Green Bay and Washington both reach the NFC title game, that would be the best-case scenario for the Commanders, who win that matchup 40.5% of the time.
| Commanders | |
| Opponent | Win percentage |
| Lions | 35.7 |
| Eagles | 32.4 |
| Buccaneers | 43.7 |
| Rams | 57.6 |
| Vikings | 46.1 |
| Packers | 40.5 |
| Chiefs | 45.5 |
| Bills | 34.7 |
| Ravens | 36.6 |
| Texans | 55.3 |
| Chargers | 50.0 |
| Steelers | 52.1 |
| Broncos | 50.6 |
No. 7 Green Bay Packers
Ideal road
Divisional Round: Lions
NFC Championship Game: Rams
Super Bowl: Texans
As the No. 7 seed, the Packers have the toughest road of any team just to get to the NFC Championship Game. If they get by the Eagles in Philadelphia, they'll move on to face the Lions in Detroit. But before you dismiss their chances, remember: Green Bay was the No. 7 seed last season when they knocked off the Cowboys 48-32 in the wild-card round and pushed the 49ers in a 24-21 Divisional Round loss.
If the Packers somehow win two games, the SportsLine Projection Model likes their chances the rest of the way. The model gives Green Bay at least a 49.1% chance to beat every other team, including the top teams in the AFC.
| Packers | |
| Opponent | Win percentage |
| Lions | 47.6 |
| Eagles | 41.7 |
| Buccaneers | 56.7 |
| Rams | 69.8 |
| Vikings | 57.7 |
| Commanders | 59.5 |
| Chiefs | 59.8 |
| Bills | 49.1 |
| Ravens | 50.5 |
| Texans | 66.6 |
| Chargers | 62.6 |
| Steelers | 63.8 |
| Broncos | 65.4 |
As for the six Wild Card Weekend games, the SportsLine Projection Model has identified one A-grade pick based on model simulations. You can find that top-tier Wild Card Weekend NFL pick at SportsLine.