NFL power ratings: Key injuries strike wild-card survivors as we project every spread in the divisional round
Here's how we're setting the spreads for every divisional round matchup in the NFL playoffs
Survive and advance is the name of the game in the NFL playoffs, and while six teams pulled it off on Super Wild Card Weekend, survive is a relative term for key players on the teams that advanced. Whether it was ACL or Achilles tears, concussions or even just a star QB playing through a finger injury, no team made it out of the wild-card round unscathed.
The Rams lost starting corner Ahkello Witherspoon for the rest of the playoffs, but the main focus was around Matthew Stafford's finger injury, which seemed to affect the MVP candidate for a portion of the win over the Panthers. Postgame X-rays on the finger were negative, and considering he finished the game, I'm not expecting him to miss any time.
The Bears pulled out the win against the rival Packers but lost left tackle Ozzy Trapilo and linebacker T.J. Edwards to season-ending injuries. The former solidified the blindside protection for Caleb Williams after taking over the role, so Trapilo's injury has a chance to be one of the more impactful from the wild-card round. Edwards is a key component in the middle of the defense as well.
The Bills relied on Josh Allen's heroics to gut out a win over the Jaguars but lost Gabe Davis to a torn ACL and Jordan Poyer to a hamstring injury that will likely keep him out against Denver. Dalton Kincaid was also in a boot after the game but the situation was labeled precautionary; we'll see how much that's true as practice reports come out throughout the week.
The 49ers cannot catch a break with injuries, losing star tight end George Kittle to a torn Achilles in the win over the Eagles. Kittle is the most complete tight end in the league, and while the team managed to survive his stint on IR earlier in the season, this latest injury plus the absences on defense could be what finally ends their run against a rested Seattle team.
The Patriots were up next, shutting down the Chargers offense en route to a low-scoring win, but star corner Christian Gonzalez picked up a head injury during the game. His placement in the concussion protocol means his status for the matchup with the Texans is in question.
The Texans closed out the weekend with a dominant win over the Steelers but lost their own star on the offensive side of the ball to a concussion as well. Nico Collins has one less day of recovery to get ready to face New England after playing on Monday, and the calculus of the matchup changes if one or both of Collins and Gonzalez can't go.
With all the injuries, the biggest winners of the wild-card round may be the teams that didn't play. The Seahawks and Broncos didn't lose any key players over the weekend, and each could have a player return from IR as Denver linebacker Drew Sanders and Seattle tight end Elijah Arroyo seem to be tracking toward playing this weekend. Other key players who could be back for wild-card winners include Bills defensive tackle Ed Oliver, Rams guard Kevin Dotson and 49ers receiver Ricky Pearsall.
I'll have my spread picks this week at SportsLine, where members are able to access all my picks as they're made throughout the week and hopefully take advantage of some good line value. For now, let's dive into our betting power ratings and then take a look at what the spread should be for every divisional-round game.
Divisional round power ratings
| Team | 20 | 19 | 18 | 17 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAR | 8 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 8 |
| SEA | 7.5 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 |
| NE | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 |
| DEN | 5.5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4.5 |
| BUF | 5 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 4.5 |
| HOU | 3 | 3 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 |
| SF | 2 | 2.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 3 |
| CHI | 1.5 | 1.5 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 1.5 |
The Broncos and Seahawks get a half-point bump for the rest advantage they enjoyed by not playing last week, but I'm also bumping up the Rams with the expectation Stafford is fine and Dotson's potential return matters more than the loss of Witherspoon.
I moved the Patriots up a full point due in large part to a defense that got back Milton Williams, Robert Spillane and Harold Landry over the last two weeks. Playcaller Zak Kuhr also had a fantastic game in the win over the Chargers, and that ability to keep the offense guessing could give New England as good a defensive unit as the other teams left on the AFC side of the bracket but with a higher offensive ceiling.
I was thoroughly impressed by the Bills' defensive effort as well, and we'll see how much of that is repeatable this week and how much was chalked up to abysmal decision-making by Trevor Lawrence. I'm keeping them where I had them in my ratings, as I felt I was already being pretty aggressive with the best-case scenario for Allen's health.
The Texans don't get a bump either, even though they dominated the box score, and that's because of both the Collins injury and how careless C.J. Stroud was with the ball in the win. It ended up not mattering, but you can't outplay a team by that much and only hold a 7-6 halftime lead, counting on your defense to score to win a game.
I knocked the 49ers down due to the Kittle injury and to not fully buying into the play of the defense after how easy the Eagles' playcalling made it for them. I probably could've done the same with the Bears but decided as the low man on the table I'd just keep them where I have them.
Let's take a quick look at each game's spread projection
Bills at Broncos
I understand why the Bills opened as favorites once again, as so much gets attributed to the quarterback position, but once again I feel like the completeness of the Denver roster plus home-field advantage should make them clear favorites in this game. My spread projection is Broncos -3.5.
Last week, we saw late movement push the Jaguars to 2-point favorites by game day, and after seeing where this spread opened I felt like we were in line for the same movement. That may be happening early, as I see the Broncos as slight favorites on the money line at some books as of Tuesday morning. The rest advantage may play a huge factor here as well.
49ers at Seahawks
Like the Bills, the 49ers are playing on six days rest against an opponent who got the week off. However, San Francisco also lost a major part of their team with Kittle's torn Achilles. My projections make this Seahawks -7.5, so I agree with the market move that has pushed it up from an opener of 7 at many books.
The Seahawks absolutely dominated the 49ers' offensive line in the game that decided the No. 1 seed in Week 18, but San Francisco didn't have left tackle Trent Williams that day, and he may be the most valuable player in football (even if the award always goes to a quarterback). His presence gives the line a fighting chance, but we'll see what impact the Kittle injury has on the rest of the offense and whether the defense can replicate its effort from last week.
Texans at Patriots
This line opened at Patriots -2.5 at most books but is likely to quickly settle at 3. My projected spread would be a decent bit higher, as I have the Patriots as 2.5 points better on a neutral field and 5-point favorites in Foxborough.
The outdoor environment seemed to affect Stroud in the win over the Steelers, with just one successful offensive drive that resulted in points until the fourth quarter when the Houston defense had let the air out of Pittsburgh. This should be a tougher test for the Texans against a Patriots offense that isn't as likely to be turned into mush by Houston's excellent defensive unit.
Rams at Bears
This is actually a pretty significant line considering the Bears have had a quality home-field advantage in recent years, but my gap between the teams would actually make it Rams -4 based on ratings.
I wanted to love the Bears this week due to their ability to generate turnovers on defense, which we've seen Matthew Stafford struggle with in the Rams' losses down the stretch. But the injuries to Trapilo and Edwards have me less confident the Bears will find a way to win the game.
