Ten weeks of the 2024 NFL season are nearly in the books, which means we're more than halfway through the fall schedule. It also means the playoff picture will be taking shape before you know it.
Not every team's record is a crystal-clear indication of their status, however. Wins are wins, and in the end, postseason tickets will be punched or denied based on just that. Yet these clubs' records register as the most deceiving going into Week 11, for better and worse:
Cincinnati Bengals (4-6)
Deceiving: For the better
Thursday's shootout loss to the rival Baltimore Ravens was a microcosm of their season: MVP-level fireworks between Joe Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase, but no steady defense to back them up. Five of their six losses have been one-score games, and five of those six came against legitimate contenders, including the reigning champion Kansas City Chiefs. That actually bodes well for their ability to make up ground down the stretch, as their offense is really rounding into form, with 30+ points in five of their last eight. Even with the Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers boasting seven wins apiece, they're explosive enough to sneak into the dance as an AFC North wild card.
Minnesota Vikings (7-2)
Deceiving: For the worse
There's no denying the impressive leadership of coach Kevin O'Connell and general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah, who've consistently built and/or nurtured their personnel to withstand major blows. Since starting 5-0 in surprisingly seamless fashion, though, the Vikings have outscored opponents by a combined one point. They haven't had a decisive, multi-score victory since Week 3 in late September. Brian Flores' defense remains opportunistic, and Justin Jefferson always gives you a chance, but their most pleasant surprise, Sam Darnold, is gradually regressing, now leading the NFL with 13 turnovers. They're likely still playoff-bound, but for how long in a tough NFC North?
San Francisco 49ers (5-4)
Deceiving: For the better
The reigning NFC champions haven't met their own standards of domination, that's for sure. Offensive drives have stalled too often, and special teams has been streaky. Even with injuries to basically every premium skill weapon, however, they boast the league's No. 2-ranked offense -- and No. 8-ranked scoring group -- under Kyle Shanahan and Brock Purdy, who's leaned even more into his off-script athleticism. Now Christian McCaffrey is back in the fold, and rookie wideout Ricky Pearsall is settling in. They may not carry the same "juggernaut" label that's rightly followed them in recent years, but to count them out as an NFC force would be perilously foolish.
