Action in the NFL has never been closer through the first nine weeks of a season. Seventy-five games have been determined by seven or fewer points in 2024, the most through the first nine weeks of a season in NFL history, per CBS Sports Research.
With the margins so tight, anyone could win in a given week and anything could happen in a given week. So what surprising sequence of events will occur in Week 10? Let's take a closer look in the freshest batch of our CBS Sports NFL bold predictions.
Panthers win first game with Bryce Young as their starting QB outside of Bank of America Stadium
Carolina Panthers quarterback Bryce Young, the first overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, has never won a game outside of Bank of America Stadium in his NFL career as he is 0-10 in his career away from home. In those 10 games, he has a 54.3% completion percentage, averages 5.1 passing yards per attempt and a 7 to 10 touchdown to interception ratio.
Even though Week 10 against the also 2-7 New York Giants is technically a home game for the Panthers, it will take place in Munich, Germany at Bayern Munich's Allianz Arena. Young and the Panthers will upset the Giants for Young's first win away from Bank of America Stadium.
The Giants are currently on a four-game losing streak, and they are the only team in the NFL that has not held a lead in the last month, since Week 6. Their four straight games without a lead is tied for their longest drought since 2000 along with Weeks 5-8 in 2019, which was Daniel Jones' rookie year. In fact, New York has lost 12 of Jones' last 15 starts. The one thing Carolina has to prevent New York from doing is getting after Young with the best pass rush in the NFL. They lead the league with 35 sacks as team, and defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence's nine sacks are the second-most in the entire NFL. However, Carolina, following their offseason spending spree up front, is equipped to handle the challenge. The Panthers are allowing the fifth-lowest quarterback pressure rate (29.9%) in the NFL and have surrendered just17 sacks, tied for the eighth-fewest in the league. I'm betting Carolina and Young hold up and escape with the win.
Drake Maye, Patriots snap road losing streak, hand Caleb Williams, Bears first home loss of 2024
The New England Patriots (2-7) have lost four consecutive road games, and the Chicago Bears (4-4) have won their first three home games this season.
However, New England is going to snap their road losing streak thanks to 2024 third overall pick quarterback Drake Maye out-dueling 2024 first overall pick quarterback Caleb Williams. Maye, with six passing touchdowns and 209 rushing yards yards in five career games, is the first rookie since the 1970 AFL/NFL merger with five or more passing touchdowns and 200 or more rushing yards over his first five games. Last week, Williams completed just 22 of his 41 passes (53.7%) for 217 yards and was sacked six times in a 29-9 defeat at the Arizona Cardinals in Week 9. Chicago's 19.2% third down conversion rate over the last two weeks is the worst in the NFL, and they have had five scoreless quarters in the last two weeks.
The Patriots aren't the better team, but Maye's magic overcomes Williams' wizardry as the Bears are in the midst of trying to find themselves while Maye is letting it rip.
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Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs offense hang 30-plus points on Broncos No. 3 scoring defense
One might see this bold prediction and disagree with its entry in this column. Let's dig into why it's bold and why it will come to fruition.
First, the Kansas City Chiefs side of things. Yes, the back-to-back Super Bowl champions are 8-0 and the last undefeated team in the NFL in 2024, but they're not winning with any style points. They have the lowest point differential (+56) by an 8-0 team in NFL history, per CBS Sports Research. Patrick Mahomes has played mediocre football this season: he has thrown 11 touchdowns to nine interceptions, a touchdown-to-interception ratio rate that ranks 28th out of 35 qualified quarterbacks, and he ranks 18th in passer rating (90.1). Both of those marks would be career lows in seasons that he has multiple starts.
The last time these two teams met in Week 8 last season, the Denver Broncos handed Mahomes the third-largest loss of his career in a 24-9 defeat. His 11 career interceptions and 21 sacks taken against the Broncos are both the most against any opponent in his career. Mahomes' last four games against Denver haven't been productive: he has seven passing touchdowns and seven interceptions on top of being sacked 11 times.
That's on top of the Broncos having the NFL's No. 3 scoring defense, allowing just 17.9 points per game this season. Denver's 31 sacks are tied for the second-most in the NFL, they rank third in quarterback pressure rate (40.2%) all while leading the league in blitz rate at 42.6%. Mahomes, a three-time Super Bowl MVP who is regarded as the NFL's best player today, doesn't see the blitz very often: he has been blitzed on 20% of his dropbacks this season, the second-lowest figure in the league.
After Denver sold out to stop the Baltimore Ravens run game in Week 9, they got gashed through the air as Lamar Jackson completed 16 of his 19 passes for 280 yards and three touchdowns. Mahomes and head coach Andy Reid will successfully identify the weak link and exploit it to score at least 30 points for only the second time this season.
Lions QB Jared Goff throws an incompletion to WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, duo doesn't connect for a TD at Texans
No quarterback-wide receiver combo has been more in sync this season than the Detroit Lions dynamic duo of of Jared Goff and Amon-Ra St. Brown. St. Brown has caught his last 30 targets from Goff, which is the longest single-seasons streak by a quarterback-wide receiver/tight end duo since at least 1991, per NFL Pro Insights. He has also caught a receiving touchdown in six consecutive games, which is tied for the longest single season streak in Lions history, per CBS Sports Research.
Goff finally throws an incompletion when targeting St. Brown, and the duo doesn't connect in the end zone for touchdown in Week 10 at the Houston Texans. Here's a couple reasons why. No. 1 is Texans cornerback Derek Stingley, whose 52.1 passer rating allowed in man coverage this season is the fifth-lowest among NFL cornerbacks this season, minimum 10 targets in man coverage. Another is Houston's pass rush. They have generated pressure at the second-highest rate in the NFL (42%), per NFL Pro Insights, and Goff will get rid of the football quickly when pressured, throwing it 0.41 seconds after initial pressure on average, which is the second-quickest in the league, per NFL Pro Insights. The combination Stingley and Texans edge rushers Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter will slow down Goff and St. Brown in a way they haven't seen since their six-game winning streak began in Week 3.
Chargers WR Quentin Johnston goes off for his second game in a row with 100-plus receiving yards vs. Titans No. 1 pass defense
Los Angeles Chargers wide receiver Quentin Johnston, the 21st overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, was heavily criticized for an underwhelming rookie year, but he's starting to turn things around in Year 2. He went off for his first career game with over 100 receiving yards in Week 9 at the Cleveland Browns, amassing 118 receiving yards and a touchdown while catching four of his five targets. That included a 66-yarder scoring strike in which he just snuck behind the entire defense.
He'll have a tough task in Week 10 facing the Tennessee Titans, who are allowing the fewest passing yards per game (155.8) in the entire league, but Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert is starting to heat up. He's thrown for 286.8 passing yards per game in the last four games, and he's on pace for career-highs in passing yards per attempt (7.7) and passer rating (101.6). Herbert and Johnston both continue their respective productive stretches and light up the NFL's top pass defense.