Week 13 is upon us and that gives us another full slate of games to bet on. There are a number of quality matchups this week, including some pivotal games that will likely impact the ever-evolving playoff picture as we go down the stretch run. That'll certainly add a little bit more spice to these picks as we look to have another solid run with our locks of the week as we hit on three of our five selections in Week 12.
Alright, let's get to these picks!
2021 record
Locks of the Week ATS: 33-23-4
ATS: 81-94-4
ML: 105-73-1
Cowboys at Saints
The Cowboys are dealing with a COVID-19 spat that will leave them without head coach Mike McCarthy for this game, but this club is talented enough and fill-in coach Dan Quinn has enough experience where I don't think that'll have much of an impact. Meanwhile, the Saints could be making a change here with Taysom Hill in as their starting quarterback. No matter if it's Hill or Trevor Siemian, Dak Prescott should be able to out-duel them with relative ease. Meanwhile, Dallas is 6-0 ATS in its last six games against the NFC, while the Saints are 3-8 ATS against teams with a winning record.
Projected score: Cowboys 28, Saints 21
The pick: Cowboys -4.5
Chargers at Bengals
The Bengals have gotten their mojo back in recent weeks and are now in the thick of the AFC North race. Meanwhile, the Chargers have stalled out, losing four of their last six including a loss to the Broncos last week where Justin Herbert threw two picks. What's more concerning for L.A. is that they allowed the Broncos to average 4.5 yards per carry while recording 147 yards and two touchdowns on the ground. They rank deal last against the run in DVOA, which is s scary proposition as they are getting ready to face Joe Mixon. The Chargers are also 1-5 ATS in their last six, which doesn't instill a lot of confidence.
Projected score: Bengals 28, Chargers 24
The pick: Bengals -3
Patriots at Bills
Week 13 ends with a doozy as the Patriots and Bills will go head-to-head, with these rivals neck-and-neck in the AFC East race. New England is riding a six-game winning streak where they've completely dominated their competition and have also gone 6-0 ATS. One area where the Bills could attack them is in on the ground, as that's been a weak spot for the Patriots, but Buffalo doesn't really lean on the ground attack, so it doesn't exactly match up. Meanwhile, New England's passing game is catching a break as the Bills just lost star corner Tre'Davious White for the year. With a team as hot and as well-coached as the Patriots, I'll gladly pick up the field goal here.
Projected score: Patriots 24, Bills 21
The pick: Patriots +3
Vikings at Lions
You have to give the Lions credit -- they hang around! Despite being 0-10-1 entering this matchup, they are 7-4 ATS on the season, which is the fourth-best mark in the entire NFL. That's pretty hard to ignore when they are set to go against a Vikings team that will likely be without Dalvin Cook, Everson Griffen, Danielle Hunter, and Patrick Peterson. Yes, D'Andre Swift could possibly be out for Detroit in this one, but Jamaal Williams is a very suitable replacement. Also, the Vikings are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games as a favorite and 0-6 ATS against teams with a losing record.
Projected score: Vikings 27, Lions 21
The pick: Lions +7
Colts at Texans
The Colts suffered a heartbreaking loss to the Bucs last week and will look to bounce back against a much easier opponent in the Texans. Houston has a point differential of -11.6 on the season, which is second-worst in the NFL and only above the New York Jets, whom they lost to in Week 12. Even with rookie Michael Carter out for the Jets, the team was still able to rush for 157 yards and two touchdowns in the win over the Texans. That likely has Jonathan Taylor foaming at the mouth, eager for this matchup. Indy is 4-0 ATS in its last four road games and is 5-1 ATS in its last six games as a road favorite.
Projected score: Colts 30, Texans 17
The pick: Colts -9
Rest of the bunch
Buccaneers at Falcons
Projected score: Buccaneers 30, Falcons 21
The pick: Falcons +11
Cardinals at Bears
Projected score: Cardinals 28, Bears 17
The pick: Cardinals -8
Giants at Dolphins
Projected score: Dolphins 24, Giants 21
The pick: Giants +5
Eagles at Jets
Projected score: Eagles 21, Jets 17
The pick: Jets +6.5
Washington at Raiders
Projected score: Raiders 27, Washington 24
The pick: Raiders -2.5
Jaguars at Rams
Projected score: Rams 30, Jaguars 14
The pick: Rams -13
Ravens at Steelers
Projected score: Steelers 24, Ravens 23
The pick: Steelers +4.5
49ers at Seahawks
Projected score: 49ers 27, Seahawks 21
The pick: 49ers -3.5
Broncos at Chiefs
Projected score: Chiefs 33, Broncos 20
The pick: Chiefs -10
