NFL Week 16 picks: Expert looks at teams coming off shutout losses under proven betting system

SportsLine NFL expert Jeff Hochman's system paid off in Week 14, with the New Orleans Saints and Las Vegas Raiders covering the spread, and he hit one of two in Week 15. The Houston Texans blew out the Arizona Cardinals, who were giving 9.5 points, but the Washington Commanders beat the New York Giants as 2.5-point underdogs. Hochman has lined up another system for Week 16 of the 2025 NFL season and identified two spots bettors can target.

NFL teams bouncing back after shutout losses

• Win Rate: 31-12-4 ATS (72.1%)
• Sample Size: Since 2011
• Criteria: Teams scoring zero points in the prior week
• Edge: Non-Division games; Week 11 or later

Why does this work?

This system looks at teams that didn't score the previous week and were playing a non-divisional team in Week 11 or later. In this spot, teams have covered the spread 31 times in 47 tries, winning by an average of 1.8 points. After being shut out, teams usually make changes -- like tweaking their offensive strategy, shuffling the lineup or focusing on fundamentals in practice. Players and coaches want to show that last week's zero-point performance was just a bad day, so they come out fired up. Oddsmakers usually ignore this, so the line can be off. With a 72.1% win rate, this is one of the most profitable systems out there for samples of at least 40 games.

Week 16 qualifiers

Cincinnati Bengals -4 at Miami Dolphins | Confidence: 3 out of 5

Cincinnati qualifies after getting manhandled by the Baltimore Ravens 24-0 as 3.5-point home underdogs. The Bengals' defense should be better in this matchup. Week 16 is deep into the season for a rookie arm. With Tua Tagovailoa benched, Quinn Ewers steps in at quarterback. The rookie faces defensive coordinator Al Golden, who knows he doesn't need complicated schemes. Golden just needs to change up the coverage enough to make Ewers hesitate and throw off his timing.

We are getting Joe Burrow laying less than a touchdown against a sub-500 team led by a rookie in his first career start. This price reflects Cincinnati's early-season defensive struggles rather than its current offensive potency, excluding last week's shutout. I like Burrow's chances to carve up a Miami secondary that ranks 27th in opponent passer rating. Burrow had a rough outing last week, posting just a 58.2 passer rating, so you can expect him to be fired up for a bounce-back performance. Meanwhile, the Dolphins look like a team that's headed for big changes once the season ends. DraftKings has the Bengals at -4 while most other books are at -4.5. If you like Cincinnati, now's the time to lock in the better number.

Las Vegas Raiders +14 at Houston Texans | Confidence: 2.5 out of 5

The Raiders' 31-0 loss last week was the first time in 19 years they've been shut out twice in one season — both times by the same 31-0 score, including a game against the Chiefs in October. Now, they face a Texans defense ranked first in scoring, allowing just 16.3 points per game. For a Raiders team that looks ready to finish out the season, this is a tough matchup. There's some hope for Raiders fans: Geno Smith, who didn't practice last week, could be back for Week 16. Head coach Pete Carroll said Smith has "a really good chance to be back" against the Texans. This matchup features one of the league's best defenses against a struggling offense, but if Smith returns, it's a boost for anyone relying on Brock Bowers or Ashton Jeanty in fantasy playoffs.

The Raiders have one real advantage: Maxx Crosby going up against Houston's weak offensive line (ranked 29th). If Crosby gets loose and picks up a few sacks, he can rattle C.J. Stroud, force bad throws and kill drives. This keeps the Texans' offensive output compressed rather than explosive. When the point spread is big, there's always a chance for a late, meaningless touchdown — especially since defenses often play soft coverage in the fourth quarter.

Houston is on a hot streak, winning six in a row (5-1 ATS) and taking eight of its past 10 (7-3 ATS). With all that momentum, most people are likely to bet against the Raiders, so the oddsmakers will want to see Vegas cover the spread. Often, the sharp move is to side with the oddsmakers rather than follow the crowd.