NFL Week 17 overreactions: Packers defense their playoff demise? Steelers let AFC North slip away?

It's fitting that over the Christmas slate, it was the season of giving in the NFL in Week 17. Various teams were able to help one another out en route to securing playoff spots. 

For instance, the Vikings taking down the Lions clinched a playoff berth for the Packers, while Houston's victory over the Chargers clinched the AFC West for the Broncos, along with punching their own ticket to the postseason. On top of those games, Cleveland's upset of the Steelers on Sunday has now set up winner-take-all divisional matchups in Week 18 between Baltimore and Pittsburgh. 

There's been plenty of movement in the playoff picture in the NFL due to the results of Week 17, and a ton of storylines that have spilled out because of it. As we do every week, we're going to dive into some of the more noteworthy items from Week 17 and determine which storylines we should take seriously and which others are mere overreactions.  

Giants should've tanked vs. Raiders for No. 1 pick

Overreaction or reality: Overreaction

Entering Week 17, the Giants were in possession of the No. 1 overall pick at the 2026 NFL Draft, with the Raiders right behind them holding the No. 2 pick. Those positions have since flipped after New York defeated Las Vegas on Sunday, putting the Raiders in pole position to secure the top pick, so long as they lose in Week 18 to Kansas City. From the Las Vegas side of things, it doesn't seem like they put their best foot forward leading up to this matchup, putting the likes of Brock Bowers and Maxx Crosby on injured reserve before Sunday. 

Some argue that New York should've followed suit and essentially tanked this game in order to secure the No. 1 pick. While I get the logic, I don't believe the Giants should've gone that route. While holding the top pick at the draft his extremely valuable, especially when you already have your franchise quarterback, the messaging behind such an effort doesn't set a great foundation for this rebuild. New York will have a high pick this spring regardless, and not laying down in this type of game will help them in the long run even if it stings in the moment. 

Steelers effectively lost AFC North after upset to Browns

Overreaction or reality: Reality

Of course, Pittsburgh technically still has an opportunity to claim the division title with a win at home next week against the Ravens. That said, it feels like the Steelers effectively let it slip through their fingers in Week 17 with this loss to Cleveland. 

Even if Baltimore turns to Tyler Huntley with Lamar Jackson still injured, the veteran showed us this week that he's more than capable of entering a hostile road environment and putting together a winning performance. And if Derrick Henry keeps his current pace going, it'll be an uphill climb for Pittsburgh. Already, the early lines have Baltimore as a three-point road favorite. 

Drake Maye locked up MVP award after thrashing Jets

Overreaction or reality: Overreaction

Drake Maye was on another level in Week 17. He became the first quarterback in NFL history to complete at least 90% of his passes, while throwing for at least 250 yards and five touchdowns in a game. Video game-like numbers for the Patriots QB. While it was awe-inspiring to behold, it may not have vaulted him up to securing the MVP award just yet. 

At DraftKings Sportsbook, Maye is still second in the MVP odds at +180 and looking up to Matthew Stafford, who is a -225 favorite at the moment. Stafford and the Rams play on Monday night, and if he struggles in that contest, it could open the door for Maye to leapfrog him. But this performance alone doesn't move the needle entirely in favor of Maye to win MVP, as incredible as it was.  

NFL playoff picture: Ravens-Steelers to decide AFC North in Week 18; Panthers have two paths to postseason

Tyler Sullivan

Mike McDaniel has taken himself off the hot seat

Overreaction or reality: Reality

There was a point this season when it felt like an absolute certainty that Mike McDaniel was going to be let go by the Miami Dolphins at some point, whether it be midseason or at the end of the year. However, the coach has rather remarkably cooled his seat to the point where it feels like he's saved his job entirely. 

After a 1-6 start to the year, the Dolphins have won six of their last nine games to improve to 7-9 on the season, and while the playoffs are not in the cards in 2025, they have shown fight, including in a Week 17 win over the Buccaneers. There, Quinn Ewers even popped under McDaniel's guidance as the rookie quarterback completed 14 of his 22 throws for 172 yards and two touchdowns. 

Making the move off of Tua Tagovailoa and showing that he can help mold a young quarterback like Ewers should only embolden the Miami decision-makers to keep McDaniel around for 2026.  

Lions have a Jared Goff problem

Overreaction or reality: Overreaction

The Detroit Lions are officially eliminated from playoff contention after falling to the Max Brosmer-led Minnesota Vikings, 23-10, on Christmas. It was a horrendous day for Jared Goff, who finished the contest with five total turnovers. 

Given how bad Goff was in this game, it has led to some questions about whether or not the 31-year-old's better days are behind him. While Goff certainly contributed to this final nail being put into the Lions' coffin, I don't see him as the main culprit for their demise in 2025. That's largely been due to injuries across the roster and their inability to adequately replace Ben Johnson at offensive coordinator. Dan Campbell had to take over offensive play-calling duties midseason, and it feels like the unit never really found its footing. If they can figure out a path where they get better play-calling on offense to allow Campbell to resume his CEO-like role of the organization, Detroit should be back competing in 2026 and Goff back as one of the more prolific quarterbacks in the league. 

Green Bay's decline on defense will be its undoing

Overreaction or reality: Reality

The Packers had no answer defensively during Saturday's 41-24 loss to the Ravens. With Lamar Jackson sidelined for this game and Tyler Huntley starting, Baltimore was pretty one-dimensional offensively as simply leaned on Derrick Henry, who exploded for 216 yards and four touchdowns. 

While Henry is a generational talent, one has to imagine he was the main focal point throughout the week of prep for this defense, and the fact that they had no answer for him continues to raise concerns about this defense as we look toward the postseason. That's particularly true after this loss gave the NFC North crown to the Chicago Bears, meaning Green Bay will be on the road in the playoffs. This season, Green Bay is allowing 25.3 points per game on the road compared to 17.9 points per game at Lambeau Field.    

Broncos barely defeating depleted Chiefs shows they're fraudulent 

Overreaction or reality: Overreaction

Denver moved to 13-3 on the season with a win over the Chiefs, but it wasn't the most impressive feat. Kansas City was dramatically banged up for this game and needed to start third-stringer Chris Oladokun at quarterback. Despite that, the Broncos needed to orchestrate a 14-play drive that concluded with Bo Nix finding RJ Harvey for a go-ahead touchdown after the two-minute warning to fend off the upset. 

The fact that it came to that for a team that has the inside track on the No. 1 seed raises some concerns about whether the Broncos are truly the team to beat in the AFC. However, I think the Broncos are still a force to be reckoned with. These one-score wins are just what they do, as this marked the 11th time Denver has registered a one-score victory this season (tied for the most in NFL history). Nix is good enough to make timely throws when his team needs it, and the defense is still among the very best in the league, which is a dangerous combination.  

C.J. Stroud's slow finish vs. Chargers cause for concern

Overreaction or reality: Reality

Lost in the shuffle of Saturday's playoff-clinching win for the Texans was a bit of regression from C.J. Stroud. If you periodically checked in, you probably saw the Houston QB uncork two long touchdowns to build a 14-0 lead. Over those first two drives, Stroud completed all four of his passes for 142 yards and two touchdowns for a perfect passer rating. While that's sensational, Stroud then nosedived after that, throwing for just 83 more yards and two interceptions. 

The turnovers are the most alarming development, as Stroud and the Texans offense had been superb at protecting the football during their resurgence. In the past 12 games after starting 0-3, the Texans offense had a league-low five giveaways entering Week 17. If this is an early sign of regression in that department, it could be ill-timed as the Texans look to crash the playoff party in the AFC.