They say Week 1 lies, and I sure hope it does. Week 1 was a tough one for this column, with some narrow misses and, admittedly, some big misses. The Broncos, who I took to win, got crushed in Kansas City. Saquon Barkley didn't quite reach the lofty goals I had for him.

Most annoyingly, a late, late, LATE 46-yard Deshaun Watson touchdown pass out of nowhere cost us the under in Browns vs. Jaguars. I got some bad breaks, sure, but I also had some bad calls.

I said last week would be tough. There was so much newness. I also said I'd be better as I learn more. Let's make sure that happens.

As always, odds are courtesy of DraftKings.

Jordan Love 2+ touchdown passes (-133)

Even though the Packers collapsed in Week 1, Jordan Love was largely awesome. Playing behind a leaky offensive line and with absolutely no support from the run game, Love threw for 387 yards and a pair of scores. There was a high degree of difficulty on many of his throws, and he made them look easy. His big-play ability is excellent.

We'll take him to throw for at least two more touchdowns against the Jets. New York impressed in Week 1 against the Titans, but the Titans look like an absolute mess. I've long believed the Jets would be much better this year than last, but I don't think they're quite there yet defensively, and the Minkah Fitzpatrick absence is going to hurt. Love and Green Bay bounce back.

Eagles cover (-7) vs. Titans (-110)

Not to pile on the Titans, but they are an absolute mess. Jordan Dajani summed it up well earlier this week:

So, the quarterback wasn't good, the offensive line struggled, the offense as a whole put up 195 yards of offense, the defense disappointed and the special teams stunk. The Jets put a collar on you and took you for a walk. Where is the optimism? Sure, teams can get better as the year goes on, but what is the ceiling of the squad that looks hapless against Aaron Glenn and Geno Smith at home?

There was a play Cam Ward flipped the ball to himself on a fake flea-flicker ... and got sacked. What are we doing here?

Anyway, I know the Eagles' offense didn't look great in Week 1, but their defense is excellent, and I think the offense will keep improving as they get more comfortable under Sean Mannion. This week will be a good one to get going in that direction, even if it's still not full speed ahead.

Stefon Diggs 5+ receptions (-131)

Stefon Diggs' Commanders debut was up and down. He had a pair of uncharacteristic drops, but he also absolutely eviscerated Cooper DeJean for a touchdown.

Overall, Diggs turned nine targets into four catches for 55 yards and the score. That's not great efficiency, but for our purposes this week, we really like the targets and the matchup. The Cowboys' defense was all over the place in a Week 1 loss to the Giants, with linebackers constantly getting lost in coverage and the pass rush doing very little. That bodes well for Diggs, who operates mostly in the short passing game; he should find plenty of room to operate. Add in that the Cowboys' offense should put up some numbers, and the game script could lean more toward the pass for Washington.

Justin Jefferson 80+ receiving yards (-106)

The Bears' secondary looked absolutely abysmal in Week 1, and now it faces arguably the best wide receiver in football. The uncertainty surrounding Kyler Murray (concussion) might scare some people off, but Jefferson actually averaged 95.4 receiving yards per game in five Carson Wentz starts last year. Combine a game script that will likely feature the Vikings needing to throw with the fact that Wentz is at least willing to take shots downfield (sometimes carelessly), and Jefferson should have another productive day. He had eight catches for 92 yards and two touchdowns last week, with six of those catches and 81 of those yards (and both touchdowns) coming from Wentz.

Puka Nacua anytime touchdown scorer AND Rams moneyline (+144)

A little two-part parlay to close things out. I simply cannot imagine the Rams falling to 0-2 on the season. Yes, the Giants looked awesome in Week 1. But they will face a much more talented defense and an offense that was absolutely cooking last year. Most importantly, the Rams won't be playing hours after a 16-hour flight. (Boy, that backfired, didn't it?)

The Rams moneyline comes with -375 odds, so just running with that isn't very profitable. Add a Puka Nacua touchdown to the mix, and we get a much better payout.

Picks:

Record so far: 10-7

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