We weren't able to build off our strong Week 5, instead going 7-7 against the spread in Week 6. We called the Houston Texans' upset of the Jacksonville Jaguars in London and knew that the Carolina Panthers would cover against Tanner McKee, but were on the wrong side of a Washington Commanders comeback against the San Francisco 49ers, and of the Los Angeles Rams' flop vs. the Arizona Cardinals.
This week, the Pittsburgh Steelers and New Orleans Saints will play the first-ever NFL game in Paris, Joe Burrow takes the Cincinnati Bengals to Baltimore to face the Ravens, and Kenneth Walker III looks to run wild against his former team in the Seattle Seahawks.
Here's a look at what I'm thinking this week. As always, credit to the CBS Sports research team for making me sound smart.
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
Top five picks ATS record: 15-15
Overall ATS record: 44-48-1
Straight-up record: 54-38-1
Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5) vs. New Orleans Saints (Paris)
Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET (NFL Network, Stream: Fubo, try for free)
I hit on the Texans upsetting the Jaguars in London last week, and I'm going to take the underdog here overseas once again. I think Gayle Benson's recent comments got to the locker room in a good way, and the Saints responded with a 34-27 win over the New York Giants where they scored all 34 points unanswered from the second quarter to the fourth quarter. J.J. McCarthy did lead an impressive comeback, but the Saints ended up victorious.
The Steelers are 1-2 away from Pittsburgh this season, and required a furious fourth-quarter run that included overtime to beat undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels last Sunday. The Saints are a perfect 8-0 ATS in their last eight games away from home, and are 3-0 ATS all-time in international games. Give me the hook!
The pick: Saints +3.5
Projected score: Steelers 23-20
Indianapolis Colts at Minnesota Vikings (-6.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Stream on Paramount+)
Maybe the Indianapolis Colts get a "fired their GM" bump -- if that's a thing -- but I don't want to overlook that this Colts offense has really struggled and now has to face the best defense in the NFL. The Minnesota Vikings are allowing just 12.8 points per game!
The re-signing of Daniel Jones doesn't look like a great decision right now. He hasn't thrown for multiple touchdowns in any game this season, and has thrown one touchdown compared to two interceptions over the past two contests. Not having Alec Pierce certainly hurts, which is why the Colts are averaging under 200 passing yards per game, and that puts extra pressure on Jonathan Taylor. He's averaging a career-low 4.0 yards per rush, and has gone 13 straight games without 100 rushing yards.
The Vikings are 5-0 while averaging the sixth-fewest yards per game (283.0), but I think Kyler Murray started to look a bit more like Kyler Murray in his last outing against the Saints. He threw for 229 yards and a touchdown, and rushed for a season-high 51 yards. His passer rating and yards per attempt have improved each game this season.
The pick: Vikings -6.5
Projected score: Vikings 27-17
Cincinnati Bengals (+1.5) at Baltimore Ravens
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Stream on Paramount+)
This line has moved all around. I saw Bengals +3, then Bengals -1.5, followed by Bengals +1.5. That has to do with Lamar Jackson's status. At the time of this typing, we don't know whether he will play. I'm curious to see how elusive he will look against one of the best interior pass rushes in the NFL. Dexter Lawrence, Jonathan Allen and Kris Jenkins Jr. is the only defensive tackle trio to record multiple sacks this season.
The Bengals are fresh off their bye and have just ONE player listed on their injury report: safety Kyle Dugger, who has been limited by a quad injury. I think Joe Burrow can take advantage of this Baltimore secondary. Ja'Marr Chase averages 120.4 receiving yards per game vs. the Ravens, while Tee Higgins caught two touchdowns the last time he faced Baltimore. Interestingly, Higgins hasn't played against the Ravens since Oct. 6, 2024! Give me Cincy. The Bengals are 10-3 ATS over the last 13 road games Burrow has started.
The pick: Bengals +1.5
Projected score: Bengals 29-27
Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (-3)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox, Stream: Fubo, try for free)
The Detroit Lions may be a team on the rise. They are scoring at the highest clip through five games in franchise history, and can become the second team in the play-by-play era (1991) to have one giveaway through their first six games. Jared Goff is playing elite football and has become the second quarterback in NFL history to throw for 1,400 yards with zero turnovers through five games, joining Drew Brees in 2018.
The concern with Detroit has always been its defense, which ranks dead last in the NFL, allowing 404.4 total yards per game. With that being said, Kelvin Sheppard's unit forced five straight three-and-outs from the Cardinals in their Week 5 45-21 victory, and Brian Branch is set to return to the lineup as well. The Lions are 7-1 ATS as a favorite after their bye week since 2010. Give me Detroit at home.
The pick: Lions -3
Projected score: Lions 35-30
Kansas City Chiefs at Seattle Seahawks (-3)
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC, Stream: Fubo, try for free)
The Seahawks have three losses this season. All three have come by three points or fewer, and the Seahawks have committed three turnovers in each loss. Slingin' Sam Darnold has struggled, having thrown seven interceptions over the last four games. The Kansas City Chiefs, on the other hand, lead the NFL in total offense thanks to Kenneth Walker III. His 665 yards rushing are the most through a player's first five games with a franchise in NFL history, and I think he wants to dominate his former team. While Walker won a Super Bowl with Seattle and earned Super Bowl MVP, I always speculated that he wanted to leave for greener pastures. What are greener pastures? I would say not having 184 carries and 12 touchdowns goes to another back. Walker is showing he can be a bell cow, he got paid, and he's on a contender. Give me Kansas City.
The pick: Chiefs +3
Projected score: Chiefs 23-21
Other Week 7 picks
Bears (-3) 28-24 over Patriots
Titans (+1.5) 19-17 over Browns
Panthers (-3) 26-21 over Buccaneers
49ers 22-20 over Falcons (+2.5)
Texans 30-20 over Giants (+10.5)
Jets 16-14 over Dolphins (+4.5)
Broncos (-4.5) 25-20 over Cardinals
Rams 29-27 over Raiders (+3.5)
Cowboys (-4.5) 26-20 over Eagles
