Philip Rivers' impossible comeback, Joe Burrow's unrest and what sources are saying around the NFL

The eyes of the NFL world will be in Seattle on Sunday afternoon to watch Old Man Rivers against one of the best defenses in the league.

The expectation is that the Indianapolis Colts will activate the 44-year-old Philip Rivers from the practice squad Saturday to be their starter, granting us one of the most improbable and unlikely comebacks in modern NFL history -- the cherry on top of one of the best slates you could ask for. The Colts have not officially named Rivers the starter, and Riley Leonard (knee) was a full participant at practice all week.

Sunday vs. the Seahawks (4:25 ET, CBS) will mark 1,800 days exactly since Rivers' last NFL game, which will be the longest layoff by a quarterback 40 years or older in league history. While many around the league have privately joked about this comeback, and others have issued worries about the spot Rivers is putting himself in, the quarterback has said he's not naïve to the challenges ahead on Sunday against the league's second-ranked defense in Seattle.

"I know that there's risk involved, obviously, on what may or may not happen," Rivers said. "But the only way to find out is going for it. I just felt almost like it was a gift, another opportunity to play and cut it loose with the guys and the game you love to play and the dream that you got to live. You may get some bonus time."

There is no good comparison in the modern NFL for what Rivers is going to attempt. Steve DeBerg played in 1998 at 44 years old after a four-year layoff, but he didn't start in a game until late in the year and had been with the Falcons all training camp and season long.

When Joe Flacco came off the couch for the Browns in 2023, he was 38 years old and had played the previous year with the Jets. Flacco also still had a great arm, something that Rivers has never really possessed.

I asked one of the smartest NFL offensive coordinators what he would do to help Rivers against the Seahawks. 

"Quick game!," he said. "Honestly, you got to be able to establish run game and then passes need to really have thoroughly thought out hot outlets so he can get the ball out.

"Mike Macdonald is going to have some fun packages to watch."

I then turned to one of the best defensive coaches in the league for how he would plan for Rivers if he ran the Seattle defense. 

"I am heavy disguise with two pressures at least he hasn't seen on tape," the coach said. "I'm base defense against 11 personnel early and I'm simulating pressure on second and pass."

Both Seattle's theoretical plan of attack and Rivers' own plan are predicated on his lack of mobility. When he takes the field Sunday he will instantly be the least mobile quarterback in the league.

His average speed of 3.02 mph/play in 2020 was fourth slowest in the league behind Tom Brady, Ben Roethlisberger and Drew Brees. Today, he would rank second behind only Mac Jones (3.01 mph), but this is five years later with three practices under his belt.

It is unlikely Rivers will be able to do much from under center, either. In 2020 with the Colts he was in shotgun 90.1 percent of the time, third-highest in the league then. Daniel Jones worked out of shotgun 78.5 percent of the time this season, ranking 20th in the league.

It's possible Rivers looks about as mobile as he did in the 2007 AFC Championship Game when he played on a torn ACL. Of course, he was 26 then.

What's clear is that Colts head coach Shane Steichen will have to do things differently for Rivers than he was with Jones, who had five rushing touchdowns. 

Saturday's expected elevation will also remove Rivers from consideration for the Pro Football Hall of Fame Class of 2026 and push his eligibility window out five more years. Rivers would not have gotten into the Hall on this ballot, and it's possible he will always be on the outside looking in with zero All Pros and no Super Bowl appearances.

But if he can somehow defy the odds and get the Colts into the playoffs, Rivers may get his second NFL Comeback Player of the Year award and add enough to his legacy that his Hall candidacy in the 2030s is stronger than it is today.

Who is Daniel Jones playing for in 2026?

If Rivers is the Colts present, Indy's future remains a question. Daniel Jones' Achilles injury means he won't be cleared for contact at a practice until June workouts at the absolute earliest, and likely not until some point during training camp.

Jones is on a one-year contract, meaning the Colts or another team will have to sign him this spring just over three months removed from Achilles surgery. Who is going to do that? And what will his price be?

The second question is hard to answer. It was already difficult to nail down before the injury, considering his level of play through the first half of the season, then the slight decline, along with his history of signing a major deal just to watch everything around him crumble. But with this injury? The second season-ender of his career? That's a difficult projection before Christmas.

The Colts will have the franchise tag at their disposal when it comes to Jones. Indianapolis will surely want Jones back, but it's possible the two sides won't be able to agree to terms. The way Indy ensures it keeps Jones on the team is by using the tag, which will be upwards of $40 million next year. That's a big number for a player coming off a serious injury, and there's no way to anticipate whether Indianapolis would issue the tag now when their doctors would need to fully evaluate Jones months after surgery.

And though much younger than Kirk Cousins and Aaron Rodgers when they had their injuries, might there be some hesitation in a team putting their 2026 eggs in the Jones basket coming off Achilles surgery?

I think what's clear is Jones will want the best situation for himself, from contract to front office to coach to roster. That very well could be in Indy with either the tag or a contract. If the Colts don't tag him, it's possible he becomes a free agent. The best situation may present itself somewhere outside of Indianapolis, in that case. Multiple sources have pointed to Minnesota as being a potential landing spot.

Jones picked the Vikings after his release from the Giants, and J.J. McCarthy has played so poorly it is clear Minnesota will need some quarterback insurance next year regardless of how he finishes the year.

The Colts have plenty to figure out these next few weeks. And Jones has plenty to work through these next few months. But unless the Colts are willing to issue the franchise tag, I don't see it as a slam dunk that Jones is back with Indy next year.

Let's hope we don't get 'Replacement Refs' 2.0

Something that flew a bit under the radar this week was the NFL informing team owners that its talks with the NFL Referees Association toward a new collective bargaining agreement have been "unsuccessful." This could wind up being a big deal!

The CBA for officials expires at the end of May, and if talks are unsuccessful in December, I don't know why anyone would feel enthused about minds being changed come the offseason when there's no deadline pressure with games three-plus months away.

To recap, the league wants to reward high-performing officials with more year-end bonus money, wants to get rid of seniority considerations when giving out postseason assignments, wants mandatory training for low-performing officials, wants to extend a probationary period that removes underperforming officials, wants to shrink the dead period that's currently from the Super Bowl to May 15 and wants to increase its "practice squad" of officials.

All of these things sound great, of course. And the refs union has decided to keep its wishes private. But you can imagine the union wants more money and fewer performance penalties for officials, at the very least.

While the NFL is the biggest thing going and usually gets its way, what is unique about this is we have seen officials be willing to strike before. The start of the 2012 season was a debacle with replacement officials, and that was when the league was pulling in half the money it does today. Throw in the fact that legalized sports gambling has taken over the country and the idea of these games being placed in the hands of below-standard officials is inconceivable.

And the NFL doesn't wield the sort of power over officials that it does over players. Players are, generally speaking, unwilling to have a work stoppage because that means their primary source of income, which can only be made in a finite amount of time, no longer comes in. The majority of NFL officials have primary jobs outside of the NFL. They can financially stomach a work stoppage much more easily than players could.

I did find there to be some irony in the NFL informing owners of these unsuccessful talks during a virtual league meeting that went virtual this year in part to cut costs. And then one day later, officials flagged the Falcons for the most penalties in a game in nine years.  

The long and short is the NFL doesn't have its typical high ground in negotiations when it comes to the refs union, and I think that union knows it.

What sources say about Burrow's cryptic comments

Joe Burrow raised just about every eyebrow across the league this week with his comments about how much fun he's having and his future.

"If I want to keep doing this, I have to have fun doing it. I've been through a lot, and if it's not fun, then what am I doing it for? That's the mindset I'm trying to bring to the table," Burrow said.

"There's a lot of things going on right now," the QB added. And when asked if his frustrations are related to football or more personal, Burrow said "all of the above."

Because Burrow has a history of sending messages in the media, and because of Cincinnati's history with unhappy players, many took Burrow's comments to signal he may either want out of the Bengals organization or out of football entirely. Carson Palmer ultimately won his freedom from Cincinnati, and it does not seem like it's really been six years since Andrew Luck called it quits at Burrow's current age (he turned 29 this week).

But pump the brakes. I talked with a couple of sources on this who didn't think we are anywhere close to the above scenarios. "Blown out" of proportion, said one source. "Crazy."

"He was emotional on his birthday and pissed that for as much as he's worked, he's still not able to win. That's all he wants to do. ... If he cannot win he's miserable."

Burrow's long injury history is well documented, and the Bengals are on the brink of missing the playoffs for the fourth time in Burrow's six years. But he has another four years left on the largest contract in team history, and I don't get the sense that there's any panic inside the building about his long-term future with that organization.

Panthers enter biggest 3-game stretch in 10 years

Much like William Carlos Williams' red wheelbarrow, so much of the Panthers' playoff hopes depends upon beating the Saints in New Orleans on Sunday. The 7-6 Panthers just took sole possession of first place in the NFC South after Atlanta's comeback win against the Buccaneers. The franchise has not made the playoffs since 2017, and it has not hosted a playoff game since 2015. 

If Carolina beats New Orleans on Sunday and can beat Tampa Bay next week, the Panthers will have locked up the division. Carolina can lose to Tampa in Week 16 but beat them in Week 18 and win the division, too.

This is the latest in a season Carolina has been at the top of the division since its Super Bowl run in 2015. Very few of the current players have been in the position they currently are, and this is where coaching comes into play.

Dave Canales has a coaching staff that has playoff experience. He won a ring with Seattle, and OC Brad Idzik joined in late playoff success with the Seahawks. DC Ejiro Evero won a Super Bowl with the Rams and went to others. There are other rings on the staff, as well as two Triple OGs in Jim Caldwell and Dom Capers.

As one source put it, there's a "numbing sense" where things within a playoff team's building should not and do not change, where players ignore the noise and stay focused on maintaining the process. A huge few weeks in Charlotte. 

This week's unlikely QB story: Brady Cook

Do not sleep on Brady Cook this week against the Jaguars. The undrafted rookie quarterback out of Missouri will be the league's 51st starting quarterback* this season when he takes the first snap for the Jets on Sunday with Tyrod Taylor and Justin Fields both out.

I'm told Cook "has been giving the defense fits" at practice the last few weeks. He doesn't have the biggest arm, but he's a great processor and the offense can rally around him. Cook faces a difficult task against the Jags defense, but a good showing will reflect well on him and his prospects with Gang Green as a backup in 2026. 

Cook was a three-year starter at Mizzou and left as one of the most decorated passers in school history -- second only to Chase Daniel in wins and No. 3 in passing yards. Jets fans remember Brad Smith, the do-it-all former QB from the late aughts. Cook joined Smith, Daniel and Drew Lock as Mizzou players to amass over 10,000 yards in their career. 

* — Cook could be the 52nd starting quarterback this season depending on who takes the field first between himself and Raiders starter Kenny Pickett. Both are playing in 1 p.m. ET kickoffs, so we'll know who gets the coveted 51st slot then.

NFL's next McVay hasn't turned 30 yet

It would be crazy to interview a 30-year-old for an NFL head coaching job, right? Right?

Jacksonville Jaguars offensive coordinator Grant Udinski is a name you'll probably be hearing a lot more of in the coming weeks. Udinski turns 30 in January, he's the non-play-calling OC of the AFC South-leading Jags, and he may be interviewing for head coaching gigs in about five weeks from now.

Udinski got into the league in 2020 when he followed Matt Rhule to Carolina from Baylor. Since then, he has worked his way up the offensive coaching ladder, spending three years in Minnesota before joining Liam Coen's inaugural staff in Jacksonville. He contributed to some of the best years of Kirk Cousins' career, then the best year of Sam Darnold's career and a resurgence in Trevor Lawrence's career this season.

I am not saying Udinski gets a head coaching gig. He'd be almost 11 months younger than Sean McVay when he took the Rams job. But the Jaguars can block teams from interviewing Udinski for a play-calling OC role, so the only way for a team to ensure they can get him in their building for a chat is to interview him for the vacant head coaching position. Teams interviewing folks for elevated positions only hoping to eventually hire them elsewhere in the organization has happened plenty in recent years even though it is not supposed to.

At the very least, teams may want to try to pick the brain of the young, bright offensive star. 

Belichick shuffles UNC staff, including Kitchens

Bill Belichick began dismantling his UNC coaching staff this week as he hopes to improve on what was a bad year on the field and perhaps a more embarrassing year off the field for the program. I have said for months now that the team didn't have much of a chance due to the lack of talent -- its roster ranked in the 30s, per 247Sports -- and that showed with just two victories against Power Four opponents.

While no one who watched Carolina play this season is surprised to see offensive coordinator Freddie Kitchens won't be with the team in 2026, I point to the above lack of talent and more. Kitchens had three preventative heart surgeries in 11 days last year, I'm told, which had been anticipated after his initial heart issue arose in 2013. So it was a difficult start to the season personally for him along with getting 70 new players on the team acclimated to the scheme.

The former Browns head coach in 2019, Kitchens has been in the college ranks since 2021. He's fully healthy now, and I think he will be in the mix for both college and pro jobs as these cycles continue in the coming weeks.

I don't see Gruden landing Michigan job

One other pro/college coaching note: a name I have seen floated around for the vacant Michigan job is Jon Gruden. I truly do not know if Gruden will coach again this upcoming year or beyond, and it's possible that question won't be answered until his lawsuit against the NFL reaches a conclusion. But I do not see Gruden to Michigan as a possibility in Ann Arbor, according to multiple sources.

Food for thought if MVP becomes two-man race

With four weeks left in the season, I wouldn't shut down the MVP race just yet, but it's clearly shaping up to be a two-horse race between Matthew Stafford and Drake Maye. There will be plenty of metrics to help decide who should get the award at the end of the year, but one thing I would caution others (including voters) against when considering who should win: 

Stafford is set to play three of his next four games in national windows, meaning his games against the Lions, Seahawks and Falcons will go to 100% of the country. Meanwhile, Maye is coming off a bye and has only next Sunday night's game against the Ravens going to the entire country.

All of these games are big for these two teams, which are each vying for their conference's top seed. It shouldn't matter that they played well in a game going nationwide. It should matter that they played well in the game, whether it goes to 7 percent of the country or the world. 

I also won't hold against one or both of these guys if they sit the final game of the season because they have already locked up the No. 1 seed. Accomplishing the mission in 16 games is fantastic and should not be considered a detriment to one's end-of-season awards when it comes to total QB statistics.

Ravens doing flurry of deals; Broncos next?

Last week I wrote in this space about how some teams are trying to get in front of the potential spike in the salary cap by getting deals done at the end of this season versus waiting until the spring. Very clearly the Ravens are one of those teams.

After getting Mark Andrews' deal done, Baltimore inked Travis Jones to an extension this past week. We will see if they can get across the finish line with Tyler Linderbaum, who has been another extension target for the team.

Another team to look for is the Denver Broncos. Quarterback Bo Nix will be on his rookie deal for at least one more year, and GM George Paton is looking to make some deals before the end of this year, I'm told.

Higgins' injury puts NFL concussion protocol under scrutiny

Tee Higgins will miss Sunday's game against the Ravens after suffering his second concussion of the season this past week against the Bills, and it's bad optics for the league's concussion protocol.

The NFL has worked intensely on strengthening its concussion protocol. According to a joint review of the process by the league and the players union, it appears all steps were followed last week when Higgins was checked twice for a concussion during the game. It was not until after the game, as part of the protocol process, where Higgins reported symptoms and was officially placed in protocol.

This came two weeks after Higgins suffered a concussion, and against the Bills he appeared to hit his head in a similar way that had resulted in the previous head injury. I'm no doctor, but it was surprising to see Higgins stay in the game after the first head hit. It was stunning to see him stay in the game after the second.

The return-to-play protocol is the same for any player regardless of being concussed once or twice, and it's a slippery slope to change any rules because of how things may "appear." But as someone who has covered concussions in the NFL for several years now, Sunday's events seemed like a gap in the protocol armor that needs to be addressed.