Welcome to the Friday edition of the Pick Six newsletter!
I have some good news and some bad news to start off today's newsletter. The bad news is that you won't be hearing from me for the next month because I'll be going on an ayahuasca retreat in South America with Aaron Rodgers. Actually, only half of that is true. I won't be going to South America with Aaron Rodgers, but I will be going on a month-long hiatus from writing the newsletter.
Since the NFL Draft is right around the corner, the Pick Six newsletter is going all draft all the time starting Monday, and that is not an April Fools. From April 1 through the end of the month, this will be the "With the First Pick" newsletter, and it will be written by CBSSports.com draft guru Chris Trapasso.
If you're not familiar with Chris, I highly suggest you follow him on Twitter by clicking here. Starting next week, you'll be getting daily mock drafts, updated big boards and an in-depth look at every pro day that's happening around the country.
Before the draft takeover starts, though, we have a newsletter to get to today, so let's get to it.
As always, here's your daily reminder to tell all your friends to sign up for the newsletter. Actually, you don't even have to tell all of your friends; just tell two of your friends and I'll be happy. To get them signed up, all you have to do is click here.
1. Today's show: Possible landing spots for Dak Prescott
With Dak Prescott heading into the final year of his contract, there's a very real possibility that 2024 could be his final season in Dallas. With Dak's future up in the air, we decided to break down some possible landing spots for him on today's episode of the Pick Six Podcast.
For today's show, Will Brinson, Tyler Sullivan and I all came up with one landing spot for Dak, and we weren't allowed to pick the Cowboys.
- Brinson: Broncos. Brinson thinks Prescott would be a perfect fit with Sean Payton. Also, if the Broncos are going to go after Dak, that means they don't have to get things figured out at quarterback just yet. They could just let Jarrett Stidham have the starting job in 2024 and then try to land Prescott next offseason.
- Sullivan: Seahawks. Geno Smith's contract runs through the 2025 season, but he has a very manageable $12.5 million dead cap hit after the 2024 season, which means it would be very easy for Seattle to move on. If the Seahawks are ready to make a change at quarterback, Prescott would be a solid option.
- Breech: Giants. I'm a fan of chaos, and Dak going to the Giants would be chaos. If the Cowboys let him hit free agency and then he turns around and signs with a division rival, Jerry Jones would never forgive him. The Giants do have Daniel Jones, but they don't seem to have any faith in him. And if they don't draft a QB this year, it's certainly conceivable they could be in the market to sign one next offseason, and Prescott could make some sense.
We actually had an unusually busy show today. Not only did we talk about Prescott, but we also broke down the new kickoff rule after having several days to digest it also talked about who the Eagles may play in Brazil (spoiler alert: It will be the Browns or Packers).
If you want to hear everything we talked about, then be sure to click here so you can listen to today's episode. You can also watch today's show on YouTube by clicking here.
2. Projected win totals for all 32 teams: Chiefs, Ravens and 49ers lead the pack
The oddsmakers in Las Vegas have released their win totals for the 2024 NFL season, and in news that probably won't surprise you, Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs are tied for the highest projected win total in the NFL. The Chiefs have an over/under of 11.5 wins, which is tied with the Ravens and the 49ers for the highest number in the league.
Here are a few nuggets from all the win totals (via BetMGM):
- Oddsmakers love America's team. There are a total of eight teams that have double-digit win totals, and of those eight, seven of them have played in at least one conference title game since 2020. The only team on the list that hasn't is the Cowboys, who have a win total of 10.5.
- No respect for several 2023 playoff teams. There are four playoff teams from last season who have an over/under lower than 9, and those four teams are the Browns (8.5), Rams (8.5), Steelers (7.5) and Buccaneers (7.5). The Steelers and Browns play in arguably the toughest division in the NFL, so it's somewhat understandable that their win totals are low. On the Rams' end, they just lost their best defensive player (Aaron Donald) to retirement, so that probably doesn't help things. As for the Buccaneers, the oddsmakers seem to think Tampa Bay will take a small step back.
- Lowest win total: Panthers. With an unproven quarterback in Bryce Young and a new coaching staff in place, it's not a huge surprise that the oddsmakers have no faith in the Panthers, who have the lowest win total in the NFL this year at 4.5.
Here are the win totals for all 32 teams from highest to lowest (win totals via BetMGM): Chiefs (11.5), Ravens (11.5), 49ers (11.5), Eagles (10.5), Cowboys (10.5), Bills (10.5), Bengals (10.5), Lions (10.5), Falcons (9.5), Packers (9.5), Texans (9.5), Dolphins (9.5), Jets (9.5), Chargers (8.5), Bears (8.5), Browns (8.5), Colts (8.5), Jaguars (8.5), Rams (8.5), Saints (7.5), Steelers (7.5), Seahawks (7.5), Buccaneers (7.5), Raiders (6.5), Cardinals (6.5), Vikings (6.5), Giants (6.5), Titans (6.5), Commanders (6.5), Patriots (5.5), Broncos (5.5), Panthers (4.5).
3. How the Cowboys can save their offseason
After Jerry Jones said the Cowboys would be going "all-in" for 2024, most reasonable people took that to mean that he might actually look to improve his roster this offseason. Instead, the Cowboys have done mostly nothing. They stayed out of free agency, lost multiple starters, and haven't even been able to get any contract extensions done with the key players who are already on the roster.
So how can the Cowboys salvage their offseason? Garrett Podell came up with a few ways, and we're going to check them out below:
- 1. Re-sign their stars to long-term extensions now before their market value goes up. "In order for the Cowboys to avoid a total rebuild, something the 81-year-old Jones likely doesn't have the patience for, they need to keep their three best players for the long haul. Signing their All-Pro trio of Dak Prescott, wide receiver CeeDee Lamb (2023 All-Pro) and edge rusher Micah Parsons (three-time All-Pro, 2023 second-team All-Pro) to long-term extensions of at least four or five years is a must."
- 2. Make a small free agency push after June 1 cap space opens up. "Perhaps once wide receiver Michael Gallup's June 1 releases processes, Dallas could re-sign 33-year-old, five-time Pro Bowl cornerback Stephon Gilmore. Gilmore's presence in Dallas in 2023 was pivotal with Pro Bowl corner Trevon Diggs going down with a torn ACL in Week 3. Gilmore's 60.3 passer rating against as the primary defender in coverage ranked as the ninth-best in the NFL among the 39 players with 80 or more passes thrown their way."
- 3. Select a top-tier offensive lineman with the 24th overall pick. "Georgia's Amarius Mims (6-foot-7 and 340 pounds), Washington's Troy Fautanu (6-foot-4 and 317 pounds) or Arizona's Jordan Morgan (6-foot-3, 325 pounds) would all be solid selections for offensive tackle. ... That being said, should Jerry Jones deem Tyler Smith to be a left tackle going forward, Jackson Powers-Johnson, an interior offensive lineman out of Oregon, could make sense with the 24th overall pick."
Garrett came up with five ways to help the Cowboys, and if you want to check out his full list, you can do that here.
4. 'Hard Knocks' set to undergo some big changes
The NFL's 32 owners quietly voted to make some major changes to "Hard Knocks" going forward, which means the show is going to have a slightly different look when it returns this season.
Over the past few years, the NFL has had some trouble finding a team that's willing to be on the show, so the owners voted to change the criteria. Under the new rules, a team doesn't have to be on the show if ANY of the three rules below applies to them (via Sports Business Journal):
- They have a first-year head coach in place.
- They're participating in the in-season show during the upcoming year or the following season.
- They have appeared on "Hard Knocks" in the past eight years.
Under the old rules, a team could turn down "Hard Knocks" if it had made the playoffs at any point over the past two seasons, but that rule has been tossed out. Also, any team that had appeared on "Hard Knocks" in the past 10 years was also able to avoid being on the show under the old rules, but that number has now been reduced down to eight years. (Note: According to the Sports Business Journal, the playoff rule will be in effect for one more season, so teams that made the playoffs in 2023 can refuse to do the 2024 preseason version of the show.)
As if that's not enough, there will be an even bigger change involving the IN-SEASON version of the show.
- "Hard Knocks" in-season adding more teams. The show will now follow an ENTIRE division for the in-season version of the show, which means there will be four teams being featured this year. The in-season version of "Hard Knocks" started in 2021, and it has featured three teams since then with the Cardinals, Colts and Dolphins all making an appearance. The show probably causes somewhat of a disruption for the team that's on it during the regular season, so the NFL probably figured that no one would gain an advantage if the league put an entire division on the show.
What all this means is that a total of five teams will be on "Hard Knocks" every season going forward. During today's episode of the Pick Six Podcast, we actually debated which division we'd like to see featured this year, and I went with the AFC North.
5. UFL set to kick off this weekend: Here's what you need to know
I don't think I've mentioned the UFL a single time this year, but that's going to change today. With the new league kicking off for the first time this weekend, we're going to cover a few things that you need know, starting with the obvious...
- What is the UFL? The United Football League (UFL) is the league that was created after the USFL and XFL merged last year. There are a total of eight teams in the league, and all eight teams will be playing a 10-game schedule. The league consists of four teams that came over from the USFL (Birmingham Stallions, Houston Roughnecks, Memphis Showboats and Michigan Panthers) and four teams that came over from the XFL (Arlington Renegades, DC Defenders, San Antonio Brahmas and St. Louis Battlehawks). Like the NFL, the UFL has two conferences: the XFL conference and the USFL conference.
- UFL games will be airing on television. The UFL has a solid television plan in place, which isn't usually the case when it comes to these spring leagues. The action will be airing on Fox, ESPN, ABC and ESPN2. The regular season will run March 30 thru June 2.
- UFL's craziest rule. Although the NFL's new kickoff rule was inspired by the XFL, the new UFL won't be using the XFL's kickoff rule. Instead, the new league will be sticking to a more standard kickoff. That being said, the UFL will be using a fourth-and-12 rule that can be used instead of an onside kick. If a team is tied or trailing in the fourth quarter, it can attempt a fourth-and-12 play from its own 28-yard line instead of trying an onside kick. If it converts the first down, it gets to keep the ball.
If you're looking for a reason to watch, CBSSports.com's Bryan DeArdo came up with a list of 10 players you've probably heard of who will be playing in the league. Let's take a look at five of the guys on his list:
- Battlehawks QB AJ McCarron
- Battlehawks WR Hakeem Butler
- Stallions QB Matt Corral
- Stallions WR Amari Rodgers
- Roughnecks LB Reuben Foster
You can check out DeArdo's full list here.
The first game of the year will feature the XFL champion Renegades against the USFL champion Stallions in a match-up that will kickoff on Fox at 1 p.m. ET on Saturday. You can see the full season schedule for all 40 games here. The season starts tomorrow and will run until June 16 when the UFL title game is played.
6. Extra points: Jets owner calls out NFL Media
It's been a busy 24 hours in the NFL, and since it's nearly impossible to keep track of everything that happened, I went ahead and put together a roundup for you.
- Jets owner not happy with NFL Network. Woody Johnson ripped NFL Media on Thursday for what he claims was a false report. The league's media arm had suggested that Johnson got in a "heated argument" with head coach Robert Saleh at the Annual League Meeting on Sunday. You can check out the full details of this interesting story here.
- Jaguars linebacker lands new four-year contact. Foye Oluokun was headed into the final year of his contract, but not anymore after he scored a huge new deal on Friday. Oluokun is getting a four-year, $45 million deal that includes $22.5 million in guaranteed money. The linebacker has led the Jags in tackles in each of his two seasons with the team.
- Chiefs sign Rugby star. Louis Rees-Zammit, one of the top rugby stars in Europe, has signed with the Chiefs. The 23-year-old announced in January that he was going to try and make it in the NFL and now is the perfect time to do it. With the NFL's new kickoff rule in place, Rees-Zammit could possibly make the team as a returner. Even if Rees-Zammit isn't NFL ready, the Chiefs can still hold on to him. Any team with an international player gets a roster exemption for training camp. The NFL also allows one extra practice squad spot for international players, so the Chiefs could hold on to him for the entire season without it impacting their roster. You can read more about his signing here.
- Brandon Aiyuk breaks silence on contract rumors. The 49ers have insisted that they don't plan on trading Aiyuk, but if they're going to keep him, they're going to have to pay him. "I'm trying to get what I deserve," Aiyuk said during an appearance on the Nightcap podcast with Shannon Sharpe and Chad Ochocinco. That sounds like a guy who won't be taking any sort of discount on his next contract. You can read his full comments here.
- LSU coach may have leaked Jayden Daniel's draft destination. Brian Kelly made a very interesting comment this week during an interview about Jayden Daniels. While describing the quarterbacks abilities, Kelly added that Daniels is going to make plays "for Washington." DOES HE KNOW SOMETHING WE DON'T KNOW? The Commanders were at Daniels' Pro Day this week, and it's possible they let Kelly know that they were very interested in the LSU QB. Look, you should never believe anything you hear during draft season, but it was definitely an interesting comment that you can hear for yourself here.
- Bill Belichick set to write a book. It looks like the former Patriots head coach has found a way to pass his time during unemployment. According to The Athletic, Belichick is planning to write a book. It's not yet clear what the book will be about -- his time with the Patriots or football strategy or something else entirely -- but no matter what it is, I'll probably end up reading it.
