Rams vs. Seahawks NFC Championship: Five trends from first two meetings and how they could impact Part 3

When looking back on the top games of the 2025 NFL regular season, it's hard to find many -- if any -- that top the Seattle Seahawks' 38-37 overtime win over the Los Angeles Rams in Week 16. As a quick reminder:

• The Seahawks were down 30-14 in the fourth quarter. It's the Seahawks' only victory in which they trailed by 15 points or more in the fourth quarter.
• Matthew Stafford threw for 457 yards and three touchdowns. Puka Nacua had 12 receptions for 225 yards and two touchdowns. The Rams had 581 yards of offense, didn't turn the ball over, forced three turnovers -- and lost.
• Teams that had at least 550 yards of offense and a +3 turnover margin were 34-0 all-time before that game.
• The Seahawks converted a crucial two-point conversion because Zach Charbonnet picked up a backwards pass when every other player on the field assumed that the play was over.
• After Nacua scored a 41-yard touchdown on the first possession of overtime, Sam Darnold found Jaxon Smith-Njigba for a touchdown and Eric Saubert for the game-winning two-point conversion. It was the NFL's first-ever game-winning two-point conversion in overtime.
• The win gave Seattle control of its own destiny in the NFC West (and for the NFC's No. 1 seed), and it converted both.

That game is the one that's best remembered. And now, just more than a month later, they'll meet again in the NFC Championship. But it's worth remembering these teams also played a thriller in Week 11: Darnold threw four interceptions, but the Seahawks' defense was phenomenal, and Seattle actually out-gained Los Angeles 414-249. Somehow, despite Darnold's struggles, the Seahawks had a chance to win. But Jason Myers came up short on a 61-yard field goal as time expired.

Those two games provided a little bit of everything. Struggles and stardom from both quarterbacks. Surprise contributors. Wild turns of events. The third installment of this divisional rivalry -- with a ticket to the Super Bowl on the line -- should be outstanding.

Here are five things we learned from the first two meetings and how they could impact Championship Sunday.

1. Sam Darnold was awful in the first game and most of the second before two outstanding drives

Darnold had been mostly terrific leading up to the first Seahawks-Rams game. Then, he was awful: 29 for 44 for 279 yards, zero touchdowns and four interceptions.

Darnold did not take a sack, but three of his four interceptions in that game came when he was pressured.

Darnold believes strongly in his ability to make the big-time throw, even under duress. Darnold threw eight interceptions this season when pressured, tied with Geno Smith for most in the NFL. The Rams must find ways to heat Darnold up, which they did in the regular season: their 39.1% pressure rate when not blitzing was the third-highest of any team against Darnold.

Jared Verse pressured Darnold 14 times across two games this season; Kobie Turner was just behind with nine.

The Seahawks would love to be able to lean on their under-center, multi-tight end looks, running the ball with Kenneth Walker III (more on that in a bit) and hitting on play action passes.

That will work especially well if the Seahawks get going on the ground, putting the Rams' linebackers and defensive backs in a bind. Speaking of which:

2. Kenneth Walker III is an X factor

He had 275 yards from scrimmage in the two meetings between these teams and, with Charbonnet out, Walker should get the bulk of the work. He had 13 carries for 126 yards (9.7 yards per carry) and a touchdown when the Seahawks had multiple tight ends on the field against the Rams.

This has been an area of relative weakness for the Rams this year. Overall, Los Angeles was solid against the run (12th in yards per carry allowed -- 4.3). But when teams put multiple tight ends on the field, the Rams fell to 25th (4.8 yards per carry) in the regular season. The Seahawks will want to get as big and as physical as possible.

3. The Rams used two completely different game plans

In Week 11, the Rams' three touchdowns came off:

• A four-play, 3-yard drive after a Darnold interception
• A 10-play, 74-yard drive after a kickoff
• A four-play, 25-yard drive after a Darnold interception

The Rams had one or zero first downs on eight of their 11 drives. Their 249 yards were their second-fewest this season, and their 40% success rate was by far their worst in any game. For reference, only two teams had a 40% offensive success rate or lower this season: the Tennessee Titans and the Cleveland Browns.

In Week 16, the Rams had much more success but still a drought: Across their final five drives of regulation, the Rams had four punts and a missed field goal. Three of those drives were three-and-outs.

A few things pop out from the two games:

• In Week 11, the Rams used multiple tight ends on just 18 plays and averaged just 2.7 yards per play (0.7 yards per attempt). In Week 16, they used multiple tight ends on 57 plays and averaged 6.6 yards per play (10.8 yards per attempt).
  
• In Week 11, the Rams were under center on 29 plays and averaged 1.9 yards per attempt on those throws. In Week 16, they were under center on 56 plays and averaged 9.8 yards per attempt on those throws.

Sean McVay had two completely different game plans, in large part necessitated by Davante Adams' Week 16 absence. What McVay has up his sleeve this weekend remains to be seen.

4. Puka Nacua went off

Few teams were able to contain Nacua effectively this season, but the Seahawks actually did a solid job -- seven catches for 75 yards -- in Week 11. In Week 16, the 12-catch, 225-yard, two-touchdown stat line tells the story.

Nacua caught six passes as the right wide receiver, four as the left wide receiver, one pass as the right slot receiver and one pass as a fullback. He registered at least one snap from 11 different precise positions, according to Pro Football Focus.

Several of Nacua's biggest plays came on in-breaking routes, and he had eight catches for 206 yards and a touchdown against zone coverage alone. The Seahawks played one of the lowest rates of zone coverage in the NFL, but they actually played a season-high 30% zone in their Week 11 game against the Rams, when Nacua was held in check. Just like we saw McVay adjust in the second meeting, we'll see how Mike MacDonald adjusts in the third.

5. The Rams' biggest struggles were on display

This deep into the postseason, every single tiny advantage matters, and every weakness can be exposed at the worst possible time.

The Rams have had a few issues this season that have been a common thread in their losses. First is special teams issues. In Week 3 against the Philadelphia Eagles, two of Joshua Karty's attempted field goals were blocked. In a Week 5 loss to the San Francisco 49ers, Karty missed a field goal and an extra point. In the Week 16 loss to the Seahawks, Harrison Mevis (who replaced Karty) missed a potential go-ahead 48-yard field goal late in regulation, and Los Angeles also gave up a punt return touchdown to Rashid Shaheed. Special team coordinator Chase Blackburn got fired shortly thereafter.

Though Mevis has been a big upgrade, issues persist. Ethan Evans had a punt blocked in the wild card game against the Carolina Panthers and struggled in the divisional round against the Chicago Bears. The Seahawks' five special teams touchdowns (including playoffs) are most in the NFL this season. That includes Shaheed's 95-yard touchdown return to open the Seahawks' divisional-round rout of the 49ers.

Short-yardage execution will also be paramount. This season, the Rams are converting just 64% on their third- or fourth-and-1 situations. That's 22nd in the NFL.

In Week 11 against the Seahawks, the Rams converted just three of their six plays in this scenario, and in Week 16, they converted just two of four. That's come back to haunt them many times and nearly did so last week when a disastrous Blake Corum pitch got stuffed for a loss in overtime.

The Seahawks, meanwhile, are the best third- or fourth-and-1 defense (49% conversion rate allowed) in the NFL.