Ranking 2023 NFL quarterbacks by tiers: Jalen Hurts, Trevor Lawrence, not quite in elite category but close

Getty Images

There are many wonderful things about this country, including my personal freedom to rank quarterbacks how I please, which is what we're doing fresh off a lengthy holiday weekend.

Another wonderful American tradition? Arguing! You're more than free to argue with me about the tiers below, but please consider a few things. First, shoutout to my good friend Jason La Canfora who penned these tiers the last two years; I've basically kept the same/similar tiers with a few modifications. I didn't include JLC's 2022 list because of those changes and to avoid general confusion with the rankings. You can check out the 2022 list here. Second, I have no interest in making you mad, that's yourself making you mad. Third, I am always prepared to be proven wrong.

Fourth -- and maybe most importantly -- is how clear some of these tiers have really become in the past year or so. All the elder statesmen stepping away from the game paved the way for a new class of top-tier signal callers, with several right behind them poised (hopefully) to join the best of the best.

As always, the NFL features a giant group of guys with question marks (Tier 3), which is where most people will take their angry stances. And it's interesting to see how the middle class (Tier 4) has really solidified itself, especially with a few future potential additions.

Send your complaints and angry commentary to me @WillBrinson on Twitter and on Instagram at the same handle.

Tier 1: The Big Three

2023: Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, Josh Allen

We can call them the "Elite of the Elite" or whatever you want, but these guys are simply on a different level as quarterbacks than anyone else right now. This is your top three draft picks if you're starting a franchise. There's a reason these guys comprised the top three spots on Pete Prisco's Top 100 NFL Players list earlier this offseason. They are a cut above everyone else at the position right now.

Mahomes is clearly No. 1 and I wouldn't even be opposed to giving him his own tier. But I think Burrow and Allen are close enough behind to warrant this designation. If your team has one of these three guys, you believe the Super Bowl is winnable even if things go wrong for your franchise.

Tier 2: Could Join Them Next Year

2023: Justin Herbert, Lamar Jackson, Trevor Lawrence, Jalen Hurts

People are going to get mad at this tier, watch. But consider the quality of quarterbacks above. These guys aren't lacking talent or even success. These are ELITE players we're talking about here, but a little something is missing, whether it's a full resume, longevity, health, etc.

For Jackson, the pedigree is there as a former MVP and being locked in long term helps, as does the addition of Todd Monken as Ravens OC. Injuries are a fair complaint here the last two seasons; it wouldn't shock me to see a monster year from Lamar and a quick move up. Herbert on the Chiefs probably gets him in the tier above; but the Chargers have a loaded roster and still can't get over the hump. Lawrence and Hurts each have just one year having taken big leaps forward. Hurts has a loaded roster around him and Lawrence has a pretty choice division to carve apart in the immediate future.

Tier 3: Intrigue with Question Marks

2023: Aaron Rodgers, Matthew Stafford, Tua Tagovailoa, Justin Fields, Daniel Jones, Deshaun Watson, Russell Wilson

Think of this as a combo of younger rising stars and veterans who have won at the highest level but can't be totally trusted. There's something lingering in each of these cases, whether it's a single year of production, a single year of decline, injuries or the team around them.

Rodgers won two of the last three MVPs and it would be shocking if he wasn't good this year, but he is on a new team without a history of much success and wasn't his best last year. I have no interest in betting against spite, especially if he was hurt all season. Stafford won the Super Bowl two years ago! He was injured all of last year and everything went wrong for the Rams, who Vegas hates this season, along with everyone else. Tua's got two things that worry me and they remain very much intertwined: his health (specifically concussions) and his offensive line. Fields can do it as a runner but we haven't seen him do it as a pure passer yet. That's not all his fault and the Bears did their best to fix things around him this offseason. Jones took a massive leap forward last season with good coaching -- I don't understand the idea he's going to be worse in a second year with Brian Daboll coaching him up after the poo-poo platter New York gave him before. Browns fans will accuse me of putting Watson here for off-field issues; if you want to yell at me feel free but include the last regular season game he played well in when you do it. Wilson is here because I believe wholeheartedly in Sean Payton as an offensive coach and playcaller -- just about anyone else and Wilson would be much lower. If Payton can't fix Russ, well, buddy we might a whole new category here next year.

Tier 4: You Can Win With Them

2023: Jared Goff, Dak Prescott, Geno Smith, Kirk Cousins, Ryan Tannehill, Derek Carr, Jimmy Garoppolo

The best way to describe these guys? They can get you to the playoffs if everything about them breaks in their favor but you cannot envision a scenario where they take you on a deep playoff run or win you a Super Bowl without a really stout defense/run game combo or the stars simply aligning.

Goff is the guy I felt bad including in this list but it's technically a move up from JLC's list last year when he was just a "guy/veteran/placeholder" and he deserves that, with the caveat maybe he's got a little upside left at age 28 should everything click in Detroit this year. Does Dak? Mike McCarthy wants to "run the damn ball" and blamed Kellen Moore for trying to "light up the scoreboard" (aka score points?!?!), which doesn't bode well for Dak exploding into a tier above. Eugene Cyril Smith III (put some RESPECT ON HIS NAME) was a top-10 quarterback last year, but his floor/ceiling combo feels fairly narrow, which may be exactly what Pete Carroll wants from his quarterback. The same goes for Tannehill in the past and for what Mike Vrabel wants. Cousins, Carr and Jimmy G are all alternate timeline versions of one another -- Jimmy G is evil Kirk and Carr is the emo version you get somewhere in the middle of the two.

Tier 5: Future Potential 'Can Win With Them' Guys

2023: Mac Jones, Kenny Pickett, Brock Purdy (?)

Based on situation and skill level and with some pedigree mixed in (first-round picks get more opportunities than mid- and late-round picks, generally speaking).

Do the Patriots like Mac?? The rumors about Bill Belichick being mad at Jones for seeking outside help with the offense make total sense without making any sense at all. There's no denying his floor, though, and even if Bill O'Brien isn't Josh McDaniels he sure as hell ain't Matt Patricia. Plus the two worked together previously, so we should see a bounce-back if the OL and run game work out. Pickett feels like a possible "take a leap" guy but I'd like to see it before deciding whether he's a Tier 3 or a Tier 4 guy, certainly the Steelers seem like a safe haven for a young quarterback to develop and blossom, there's just that pesky "you're still employing Matt Canada" thing lingering. Purdy's resume isn't long enough to warrant a move up ... and that's assuming he's ready to go in Week 1. If you made a Frankenstein monster out of the Niners' three quarterbacks I'd be OK with them in Tier 3 but an operation like that feels like it might not be legal.

Tier 6: No Clue, Man

2023: Kyler Murray, Sam Howell, Jordan Love, Baker Mayfield, Desmond Ridder

This is basically a "Good Luck" category but I don't want to dismiss the possibility/upside for some of these guys. Or, to be more frank, I don't have a clue how 2023 will go for them.

Kyler could go anywhere on this list and could also be his own tier because I couldn't possibly begin to guess how MUCH he plays in 2023, much less how WELL he plays this coming season. The Cards might very well sit on him knowing they want to move on next year after a full-fledge tank sesh. I wanted to put Howell and Love higher because I think they both possess upside the public is unnecessarily scoffing at, but there wasn't a spot above that fit and I certainly wouldn't bet my life on either being a good or great NFL quarterback. Additionally the style of play -- including aggressive use of their legs from the position -- creates a ceiling/floor level you don't see from the Tier 5 guys. If both Howell and Love were in the NFC postseason it wouldn't be that shocking. "I'm a Baker guy - Brinson" was our Slack slogan for a few months ... and I still am, although you wouldn't know it given where he's positioned here. Prisco sold me a bit on the Bucs during a recent Pick Six Podcast appearance and if he's right about Tampa's offensive line and defense, Baker could thrive there and this will look silly. I'm also high on the Falcons but it's mostly because the division is weak, the defense will be better and Arthur Smith's Titans-lite plan will make Ridder a game manager. He could be a future potential winner!

Tier 7: The Rookies

2023: Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud, Anthony Richardson

Take as much time as you want trying to decide where these three guys would go without a "rookies" designation and you're going to spend a lot of time chasing your tail. They all have upside -- hence their draft spot -- but there's so much we don't know about them yet and all three have first-year coaching staffs (only Carolina features a retread in Frank Reich).

Young's floor feels so high I would almost feel comfortable putting him in Tier 4 but those guys are mostly capped out potential-wise and no one would say that about the No. 1 overall pick. You could push Richardson as high as Tier 3 because he's such a freakshow athlete but it would look ridiculous having him above established veterans, several of whom were top 10 quarterbacks last year, if he didn't even start Week 1 (he will, Jim Irsay is involved). Stroud is my least favorite of the rookie quarterbacks but I actually like his situation with the new Texans coaching staff (Bobby Slowik is especially intriguing as their OC) and several decent offensive linemen.